UNCHR COUNTRY RESOLUTIONS - UNLIKELY NIGERIA WILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000634 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2014 TAGS: PHUM PREL ZI NI SUBJECT: UNCHR COUNTRY RESOLUTIONS - UNLIKELY NIGERIA WILL SUPPORT ZIMBABWE RESOLUTION REF: A. STATE 77769 ¶B. ABUJA 593 ¶C. ABUJA 571 Classified By: COUNSELOR JAMES MAXSTADT FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) POLOFF delivered demarche (REF A) requesting support for country-specific resolutions at the UNCHR to MFA Second United Nations Division Minister Counselor Alhassan A. Hussain. While Hussain was unable to confirm how the GON delegation in Geneva intended to vote on other UNCHR resolutions (septel),he gave his own opinion on the Zimbabwe resolution. ¶2. (C) Hussain said the GON would probably join the rest of the Africa Group and vote in favor of "no action" on the Zimbabwe resolution. Noting President Obasanjo's position as Chairman of the Commonwealth, Hussain said the GON was eager to bring Zimbabwe back into the fold with as little conflict as possible and thought "carrots would be more effective than sticks." Hussain went on to say that international pressure, especially that brought to bear by the UK, had backed Mugabe into a corner and made him even more difficult to deal with than before Zimbabwe's departure from the Commonwealth in December. ¶3. (C) COMMENT: While Hussain's views are widely shared within an MFA that is devoted to opposing criticism of specific countries, especially specific African countries, Nigeria's Zimbabwe policy is made by President Obasanjo, not the Ministry. Nigeria is unlikely to vote in favor of a resolution criticizing Zimbabwe, as it has not voted in favor of resolutions criticizing other African countries even when Nigeria considered them enemies, but President Obasanjo is unlikely to go as far out of his way to shield Zimbabwe as Hussain suggests. Obasanjo is known to be irritated with Mugabe precisely because of Mugabe's actions on the Commonwealth Summit flap, and it is doubtful that he would instruct his delegation in Geneva to vote for a no-action motion unless it would make Nigeria the odd man out with the rest of the Africa Group on the other side. ROBERTS