INTERNAL SQUABBLES THREATEN NIGERIA'S MAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001584

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: INTERNAL SQUABBLES THREATEN NIGERIA'S MAIN
OPPOSITION PARTY


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR JAMES MAXSTADT FOR REASONS 1.5 (B &
D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The ANPP, Nigeria's leading opposition
party, issued a series of competing suspensions of senior
leaders from the party last week in an replay of a theme all
to common in Nigerian politics. For now, however, the
suspensions have been lifted by the competing factions
pending reconciliation meetings likely to occur in the next
week. The main players included ANPP Chairman Don Etiebet,
ANPP presidential aspirant John Nwodo, Sokoto Governor
Bafarawa, and ANPP 2004 (and possibly 2007) presidential
candidate Muhammadu Buhari, with possible behind-the-scenes
appearances by President Obasanjo, VP Atiku and former
president Babangida. While the internal struggle could
severely cripple the ANPP, it should have no effect on
Buhari's election tribunal challenge to the 2003 election
currently wending its way through Nigeria's legal system. It
does, however, highlight the dominance of money politics and
the ruling PDP's activities in other parties. END SUMMARY.

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CAST FOR THIS (IM)MORALITY PLAY
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2. (C) The Main Actors:

-- All Nigeria Peoples' Party (ANPP) Chairman DON ETIEBET
has been unseen and ineffective for some time. Complaints
about his inactivity have continued during his tenure as
party chairman. His support of the State of Emergency in
Plateau State this year was widely viewed as a signal he had
finally succumbed to legal and financial persuasion from the
ruling PDP and the GON's security services. There is a
precedent. Etiebet had been a major critic of military
dictator Abacha's self-succession efforts until, after a
two-day sojourn with the State Security Services (SSS),he
appeared on television, a bit bedraggled, to claim he had
"seen God" and decided that Abacha was not a bad chap. After
release from a more recent detention a few months ago, the
legal difficulties facing his oil business seem to have
disappeared. With this apparently new-found financial
security, Etiebet has grown strangely averse to agitation on
behalf of the opposition.

-- ANPP Sokoto State Governor Attahiru Bafarawa views
himself a rising star in northern politics, with some
"northern elites" encouraging him to run for president in

2007. He views himself as leader of the ANPP governors, and
organized a "Northern Governors Forum," that includes both
ANPP and PDP governors. His critics in the ANPP accuse
Bafarawa of undermining Buhari's suit against the 2003
election. Bafarawa's presidential aspirations may be more to
position himself for a VP slot, or Senate President or a
third term as Governor, but he is a canny and somewhat
principled politician who normally avoids rocking the boat
past an acceptable level.

-- Former Minister of Information and ANPP Presidential
aspirant John Nwodo is a leading politicians from Nigeria's
Southeast. He has strong ties in both the ANPP and ruling
PDP, and is admired by groups throughout the nation. Since
losing the nomination to Buhari in 2003, he has continued to
back ANPP candidates while maintaining a low public profile.
Nwodo remains an important link between north and south,
especially after the assassination of leading South-South
opposition politician Marshall Harry in the run-up to the
2003 elections, and will be influential in Nigerian politics
over the next few years.

-- Former head of state and ANPP 2003 Presidential candidate
Buhari remains one of the most popular politicians in the
country. Having rallied grassroots support throughout the
nation during his 2003 campaign, his stand opposing the
election outcome though the courts has further improved his
image throughout the country. In spite of the efforts of
Obasanjo to frighten the electorate with claims of religious
extremism, Buhari is still capable of drawing crowds in the
north and south of Nigeria. While delays in the tribunal
process have sapped some of the enthusiasm of his northern
supporters, his popularity remains high and his relationship
with Igbo leader Emeka Ojukwu remains good.

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STAGING
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3. (C) In the current face-off, Etiebet is accusing Sokoto
State Governor Bafarawa of engaging in "anti-party
activities." Etiebet initially suspended Bafarawa from the
party, reportedly accomplishing this by sharing Naira 7.2
million (about USDOLS 54,000) with many ANPP state party
chairmen and executive committee members.


4. (C) In response, Sokoto ANPP Governor Bafarawa mobilized
his own group of party chairmen -- with the help of the
Zamfara and Kebbi state governors and, reportedly, at least
Naira 20 million (about 154,000 USDOLS) of state government
funds -- to suspend Etiebet. The official reason was that
Etiebet had allegedly "diverted election funds" during the
2003 campaign and was cooperating with President Obasanjo on
various issues. In a meeting of ANPP state party chairmen,
Zamfara Governor Sani is said to have threatened Etiebet,
saying, "Let's vote tomorrow and see who can bring more money
to buy the chairmen."


5. (C) Both sets of suspensions have since been rolled back.
ANPP officials have arranged for reconciliation meetings
between the two groups, but antagonisms still remain. In
addition to Etiebet's relative inaction except for supporting
the President's State of Emergency declaration in Plateau
State, his critics claim one of Obasanjo's advisors visited
Etiebet just before he paid out the money to the ANPP
chairmen. Bafarawa's critics point to Bafarawa's
presidential ambitions, encouraged by members of the
influential Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF),and criticize him
for destabilizing the party.


6. (C) Into this mix come Northern Nigeria's Kebbi and
Zamfara governors. Zamfara's Sani is widely believed to be
working for former head of state Babangida in an effort to
guarantee him an ANPP platform for his 2007 presidential bid
in the event that the ruling PDP does not nominate Babangida.
He has made several visits to Babangida's hometown recently
and has had a relationship with Babangida for many years.
Kebbi's Aliero is believed to have made the same offer to
current Vice President Atiku Abubakar, based on Atiku's many
visits to Kebbi and their long personal friendship.


7. (C) In the Southeast, a caucus of ANPP leaders there met
throughout last week in an attempt to either resolve the
crisis or determine their own future. Their natural leader,
Nwodo, has thus far refused the ANPP chairmanship, commenting
to Poloff that if he took it "Nigeria would burn." While
Nwodo remains hesitant, the Southeast caucus is faced with
two choices: stick with Nwodo or jump from the ANPP to
Ojukwu's APGA.

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DENOUEMENT
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8. (C) There may be several more acts, but like a bad movie
the possible endings seem clear in advance. Either the ANPP
will put itself back together as a coherent national party,
even as only a vehicle for a national campaign such as
Buhari's for president in 2003, or it will join Nigeria's
other opposition parties as a regional also-ran. President
Obasanjo's ruling PDP would obviously benefit, as it has
before. The PDP is somewhat such a vehicle and has its own
divisions, although more of its own making than from efforts
by outsiders. As the jockeying for support in the 2007
elections increases, it is not unthinkable that Obasanjo's
estranged VP Atiku could attempt to move his supporters to
the ANPP. And while Babangida is nowhere near as strong as
most Nigerians believe, any move by Obasanjo to change the
Constitution so as to give himself a third term could lead
Babangida toward the ANPP too.


9. (C) The ANPP internal squabble could have serious
implications for its continued viability, but should have no
effect on the ongoing election tribunal contesting the 2003
Presidential elections. Buhari's case resumed September 14,
and he has yet to take a public stand on the intra-ANPP
wrangling. He is in Abuja this week and is expected to step
into the fray. Interestingly, Etiebet accompanied Buhari to
court on September 14, the first time Etiebet has appeared
there in a while.


10. (C) COMMENT: The most troubling aspect of this affair is
the continued use of money to influence party officials.
Nigerians seem to tolerate the siphoning of government funds
(both federal and state, and by all parties) to manipulate
politics. Obasanjo's publicly declared fight against
corruption, and his call for reducing the role of money in
politics, seem to have had no impact on such practices within
his or any other party.
CAMPBELL