POLIO: A NIGERIAN SOLUTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001258 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/W, USAID/W FOR AFR/AA, CONSTANCE NEWMAN, AFR/WA, MICHAEL KARBELING, GH/AA, ANN PETERSON, GH/CH, SURVIVAL, HOPE SUKIN, OES/IHA E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/15/2014 TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID SOCI NI SUBJECT: POLIO: A NIGERIAN SOLUTION REF: A. ABUJA 1185 ¶B. ABUJA 1132 ¶C. ABUJA 971 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN CAMPBELL FOR REASONS 1.5 (b) AND (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Kano State Governor termed the new polio vaccines safe at a July 15 meeting held in Kano. A prelude to a public announcement that vaccinations can reconvene, we hope the announcement can come by this weekend but await the official signs. Several northern politicians discussed the issue with the Ambassador the same day in Kaduna, agreeing that Shekarau was on shaky political terrain and that much work remained to be done to bring the public on board. Despite the Ambassador's objections, these interlocutors were firm in their assessment that the arrogance and insensitivity of international health organizations and western donors to legitimate local concerns exacerbated the problems with the polio vaccination program. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) Kano State Governor Ibrahim Shekarau convened a meeting of local "opinion-formers" on the evening of July 15 to discuss the results of the latest testing of polio vaccines for safety. At the meeting, Shekarau announced that the technical committee confirmed the safety of the Indonesian-sourced polio vaccines. His spokesman said that a public announcement would follow quickly, with vaccinations to start soon after, although no specific timeline was given. In attendance at the meeting were businessmen, Muslim clerics, prominent politicians, the Chief Judge of the state and the Emir of Kano. ¶3. (C) COMMENT: While this announcement is welcomed, the lack of a firm timeline might be disturbing, given the number of times that the announcements have been imminent only to be delayed at the last minute. While we have no reason to doubt the intent this time, the proof is in the pudding. We believe the Governor's public announcement could come as early as this weekend, July 17-18. END COMMENT. ¶4. (C) Ambassador met with several prominent politicians who regarded themselves as political allies of the Governor of Kano in Kaduna earlier the same day. All agreed that "mischief makers" capitalized on the issue but several pointed to specific medical concerns that had not been addressed by the international community to the satisfaction of Nigerians. All noted that the controversy had created a negative perception about the vaccine campaign throughout the north that was not limited to Kano State. ¶5. (C) One, Suleiman Hunkuyi, the defeated ANPP gubernatorial candidate in Kaduna, cited a BBC program on polio that quoted families in both India and Nigeria saying the fear that it was a Western plot to sterilize the populations was the primary reason for not participating in the vaccinations. He pointed out that the resumption of vaccinations would depend on the cooperation of local religious leaders and elites, the same ones that raised the alarm in the first place. ¶6. (C) Another, Col. Hamid Ali (rtd.),Secretary of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) stated that the "legitimate concerns" leading to the current impasse had never been addressed. Among the questions he raised were: --Why was estrogen found in some vaccines and not in others? --If estrogen was not necessary for the vaccines, why was it in any of them? --What is the validity of the WHO data claiming Kano to be the source of the recent polio cases? He concluded by questioning why the international health organizations and the donors, especially the U.S., had exerted so much pressure, both internal and external, when the preceding questions had not been answered. He suggested that the lack of coherent responses in a public forum fostered suspicion among northerners. He cited many well-known lapses in the conduct of medical trials, including the Tuskegee syphilis episodes and the Pfizer meningitis controversy in northern Nigeria, as having created the conditions for a conspiracy theory to develop around the polio issue. ¶7. (C) Kaduna State Governor Makarfi echoed many of these themes in a separate meeting. He placed the blame on academics as well as community and religious leaders. According to Makarfi, the strongest opposition to the campaign came from the School of Pharmacy in Zaria. Contrary to reports, Makarfi claimed, Kaduna State had never suspended the vaccination program but instead made polio a voluntary part of the ongoing vaccinations. ¶8. (C) All agreed that Shekarau was on politically shaky ground -- caught between domestic politics and international pressure -- and that his political future now depended on how the polio controversy was resolved. The biggest danger, they said, was if the new vaccines were found to be contaminated after Shekarau and others attested to their safety. ¶9. (C) COMMENT: Based on the Ambassador's Kaduna interlocutors, opposition to the polio vaccination campaign in Kano State and throughout the north of Nigeria appears to be an amalgam of ignorance fed by snippets from sources ranging from the internet to the BBC. It feeds on suspicion of "Western" vaccination campaigns which in turn is the product of a mixture of history and myth. The Ambassador's interlocutors, all ostensibly pro-American establishment figures, were not swayed by the Ambassador's remonstrations and betrayed a sense that the west, especially the international health organizations, had been arrogant and insensitive to legitimate local concerns. CAMPBELL