DARFUR DEPLOYMENT PLANS; SEPT 15 BAKASSI

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 001240 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/15/2014 TAGS: PREL PHUM MOPS SU AU CM NI DARFUR SUBJECT: DARFUR DEPLOYMENT PLANS; SEPT 15 BAKASSI WITHDRAWAL NOT SET IN STONE REF: A. ABUJA 1231 ¶B. ABUJA 1218 ¶C. ABUJA 1170 ¶D. ABUJA 1169 ¶E. ABUJA 914 ¶F. ABUJA 92 Classified By: DCM RICK ROBERTS FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Media reports from July 11 and 12 indicate that during a July 10 meeting with Cross Rivers state Governor Donald Duke, Minister of Defense Rabiu Kwankwaso said the Nigerian military had begun a gradual withdrawal from the Bakassi and planned to hand over disputed territory to Cameroon by September 15. Further media reporting has indicated that units currently based in the Bakassi would soon be deployed to Darfur. These reports conflict with previous Mission reporting and we have not been able to verify their accuracy. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) During a July 10 meeting with Cross Rivers Governor Donald Duke, Minister of Defense Rabiu Kwankwaso told members of the media that the Nigerian military had begun a gradual withdrawal from the Bakassi and the GON planned to hand over disputed territory to Cameroon by September 15. Previous Mission reporting (REF C-F) has indicated that this is unlikely. In May, the Chief of Defense Intelligence (CDI) (REF E) told DATT that withdrawing the military from the Bakassi would destabilize the region and that the GON was committed to achieving a political solution through the Nigeria-Cameroon Mixed Commission even if that conflicted with the ICJ's October 2002 ruling on the dispute. The CDI's comments have been reaffirmed by other senior military interlocutors earlier this month (REF C). ¶3. (C) As reported previously (REF A-B),the GON plans to send a 165-man protection force to Darfur, however, it has not yet identified a unit to participate in a larger AU peacekeeping force. Previous reporting (REF D) also indicates that it is unlikely any units from the Bakassi would be deployed to Sudan. ¶4. (C) COMMENT: Despite Kwankwaso's comments to the media, all indications are that the GON will not comply with the September 15 handover date and the Nigerian military plans to stay in the Bakassi for the forseeable future. END COMMENT CAMPBELL