NIGERIA: NEXT STEPS: POLITICAL ACTION TO RESTART

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001186

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W, USAID/W FOR AFR/AA, CONSTANCE NEWMAN,
AFR/WA, MICHAEL KARBELING, GH/AA, ANN PETERSON, GH/CH,
SURVIVAL, HOPE SUKIN, OES/IHA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID SOCI NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: NEXT STEPS: POLITICAL ACTION TO RESTART
THE POLIO ERADICATION INITIATIVE (PEI)

REF: A. ABUJA 1132


B. ABUJA 971 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN CAMPBELL FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary. As the World Health Organization (WHO)
pressures Kano State to resume the polio vaccination
campaign, the National Coordinator/Chief Executive of the
National Program on Immunization has refused to make state
and local governments stakeholders in the process,
frustrating the international donor community. While Kano
State Governor Ibrahim Shekarau claims to be receptive to
restarting the vaccination program, opposition to the vaccine
has taken on its own political life. See also USAID Abuja
cable of July 6. End Summary.

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Developments
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2. (U) The WHO announced on Friday, July 2, that it was
investigating a new outbreak of polio cases in Rogo,
southwest Kano State. After it issued a travel advisory for
northern Nigeria, the WHO said that the Kano State government
had agreed to restart the vaccination campaign "within days,"
using vaccines from Indonesia, a fellow Muslim country. WHO
also warned that its advisory could become a ban on travel
both to and from northern Nigeria.


3. (U) Over the 4th of July weekend, UNICEF told Mission
that it had seen a report by Dr. Lawan Bichi, a pharmacist
who had been serving as the Kano State scientist, claiming
that the Indonesian vaccine had excessively high levels of
female hormones, feeding into rumors that the vaccination
campaign was an attempt to reduce fertility among Muslims.


4. (C) Dr. Bichi himself told Poloff that the state
government is awaiting a final report from its current
scientific committee before presenting its findings publicly.
Commenting that he was no longer involved in the issue,
Bichi said he supported resolution of the issue because "we
are Muslims, and as leaders, it is our responsibility to find
out the truth."


5. (C) On July 6, the Ambassador raised polio with National
Security Advisor Aliyu Mohammed Gusau, who assured the
Ambassador that he is engaged on this issue and believes that
Shekarau is sincere in his efforts to begin vaccinations. He
promised to arrange a meeting between the governor and the
Ambassador this week, when Shekarau will be in Abuja. Gusau
said he was deeply concerned about the impact on Nigeria's
international image caused by the critical articles in the
international press.

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Analysis
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6. (C) At the center of the issue is the National
Coordinator/Chief Executive of the National Program on
Immunization (NPI) since 1998, Dr. (Mrs.) Dere Awosika. Her
reluctance to include state and local governments in the
implementation of the program is proving to be an enormous
obstacle. Rumors of improper fiscal practices have plagued
Awosika since she assumed the post. Recently, a 63 million
Euro deficit in the accounts of the NPI was traced to her
doorstep. Appointed at the insistence of First Lady Stella
Obasanjo, Awosika has proven immune to efforts to ensure her
cooperation or accountability. USAID plans to work jointly
with UNICEF and WHO to push immunization at the state and
local government level, and other donors are considering
decentralized efforts as well.


7. (C) Kano State Governor Ibrahim Shekarau was ready to
restart the vaccination campaign several weeks ago, but
Awosika jumped the gun by prematurely announcing his
intentions. Shekarau was forced to back off, isolated and
embarrassed, but now says he is ready again. Talks over the
weekend with Poloff in Kano indicate that the state is ready
to move, and is now merely preparing publication of the final
report on the vaccine. Shekarau's spokesman announced to BBC
Hausa Service on July 4 that implementation of the program is
only "days away."

8. (C) Still, political stumbling blocks remain in the way
of the vaccination campaign. Whether or not Shekarau was
ever in control of the opposition to the vaccine, he is not
now. Bichi's report is an example of the public face of a
northern faction lobbying for a new political issue. Shari'a
occupied a prominent place in Nigeria's politics from 1998
until 2003, but is no longer on the front burner. This
group, whose political fortunes hinged on the issue, is
looking for a new relevance. Opposition to the vaccination
program is a cynical attempt to gain political advantage by
fanning the flames of paranoia about the USG's intentions
toward the Muslim community.
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Next Steps
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9. (C) Two things could assist Shekarau and the Federal
Ministry of Health to break the impasse on the issue. First,
the USG needs to push strongly behind the scene for the
decentralization of the vaccination program. While Awosika
seems recalcitrant, we recommend an immediate focus on
Minister of Health Eyitayo Lambo. USAID, in coordination
with the other donors, will approach Lambo as soon as
possible with a strong push to decentralize the vaccination
program, an action that Lambo apparently supports. A public
reformation of the national program, devolving control to the
local and state level, is desirable both from a logistical
standpoint and from a political perspective.


10. (C) The second element of this strategy is for a
political push on the Kano State Governor to make a public
announcement and a strengthened political effort to implement
the program. The National Security Advisor assured the
Ambassador that the GON is making this push, but action from
the Minister of Health would give Shekarau some political
room to maneuver. Shekarau may be able to deliver, but he
wants a politically acceptable way out. This change to the
national program should give him the space he needs to act.
These two elements should be combined and coordinated to
allow Lambo and Shekarau to both be seen solving the problem,
jointly, if possible, or at least in a coordinated fashion.


11. (C) For now, public pressure on either the GON or the
Kano state governor could prove counterproductive, and the
possibility of a WHO travel ban could impede progress on both
fronts. It is critical that the USG engage on these issues
immediately, as the news of additional outbreaks are yet to
hit the Nigerian press. Once new stories break, and WHO
ratchets up the pressure on Shekarau and the GON, the
Nigerian aversion to public criticism and arm-twisting could
be strengthened, delaying implementation even further.
CAMPBELL