FUEL STRIKE ENTERS DAY 2: COMING OR GOING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001040 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2014 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM EPET NI SUBJECT: FUEL STRIKE ENTERS DAY 2: COMING OR GOING REF: A. ABUJA 1032 ¶B. ABUJA 1012 CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR JOHN CAMPBELL FOR REASONS 1.5 (b) AND (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) strike began its second day much as the first day. Businesses, especially banks and filling stations, remain closed in many parts of the country. The strike remains for the most part non-violent, but a clash outside NLC headquarters today claimed two victims. It is too early to say whether the shootings at NLC headquarters will prolong the strike or hasten its demise. Government sources claim the GON is trying to enforce marketers' compliance with the court order to reduce gasoline prices back to 38 Naira per liter, but also say that NLC leader Adams Oshiomhole could be detained by Friday. The gasoline marketers remain confused on the mechanism for reducing prices, and on the viability of continuing to do business in Nigeria. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) This cable is a joint product of Embassy Abuja and Consulate General Lagos. Notwithstanding the Friday holiday, the EAC will meet over the long weekend if circumstances change. -------------- The Progress of the Strike -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The NLC strike (reftels) against the latest hike in fuel prices began June 10 much as it began June 9. NLC teams continue circulating to inform the public that the strike is on, and to encourage -- or force -- compliance. Spokesmen at the NLC expressed satisfaction about the wide public participation, and also about the support from other political and civil organizations. Public skepticism remains high about the NLC's motivation, but popular frustration with the Obasanjo regime serves to bolster support for the NLC. Much as during the 2003 strike, many Nigerians express their support for NLC but temper that with fear that NLC leaders will call off the strike in exchange for personal gain. ¶4. (SBU) Bureaucrats at Nigeria's Federal Secretariat reported for work on the morning of June 10, signed the attendance book intended to prevent participation in the strike, and left for home. Filling stations and banks remain closed in Abuja and Lagos, and Nigeria's domestic air traffic continues to experience disruptions. The heavier than usual security presence continues throughout the country. In addition to Benue, Kano, Kaduna and Katsina states, reports indicate similar closings in Yobe, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Abia, Anambra and Enugu states. ¶5. (U) The Sultan of Sokoto asked residents of Sokoto State not to participate in the strike, and the local NLC head agreed. The strike never started in Sokoto, and the NLC executive has reportedly sacked its Sokoto representative. At the other end of the country, the opposition AD Governor and Deputy Governor of Lagos joined the strike, staying away from their offices on June 10. -------------- A Violent Incident -------------- ¶6. (SBU) While the strike remains non-violent almost everywhere, a clash occurred at the NLC headquarters in Abuja about midday June 10. An eyewitness says that an NLC "compliance patrol" was returning from visits to several filling stations in Abuja's central area, and encountered a heavy police presence at the headquarters. NLC leader Adams Oshiomhole and Police Commissioner Lawrence Alobi were reportedly engaged in a heated discussion. According to the NLC, Alobi was advising NLC leaders that they should not move around town because "police could not guarantee their security," a common euphemistic threat in Nigeria. ¶7. (SBU) Police say that the group of "okada" (motorcycle taxi) drivers became unruly and that police used teargas and shot in the air to warn the crowd, wounding one driver in the leg. NLC sources claim that two people were shot, and one died from abdominal wounds. The other's condition is undetermined. The victims and two motorcycles were carried away by the police and there is no word of their whereabouts. When the incident occurred, Poloff was on the phone with a journalist who at the scene, and at least five shots were clearly audible on the phone. Two hours after the incident, Commissioner Alobi told RSO he did not know what had happened when the shots were fired. -------------- Texaco Nigeria Tries to Comply--for Now -------------- ¶8. (C) Government sources claim that GON efforts are also underway to enforce compliance with the court order and that marketers are encouraged to re-open at the previous court-mandated price levels. They also claim that this is a move to divert support for the strike before re-raising the prices later. One GON source claims that the decision has been taken by government to detain NLC leader Adams Oshiomhole, predicting the arrest could happen by Friday. ¶9. (SBU) O.T. "Jimmy" Adelekan, Executive Director of Texaco Nigeria, told Econoff on June 10 that the Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Authority (PPPRA) issued a directive on June 9 to reduce prices significantly, nearly to the level in the June 8 ruling, and Texaco station managers have complied. He expressed concerns about the current gasoline inventories purchased that were at higher wholesale prices than the current retail price cap. Adelekan also reiterated his colleagues' opinion that NNPC not become the sole fuel importer again, but private companies are unlikely to commit to fuel importation under the "buy high, sell low" pricing regime. -------------- What's Next? -------------- ¶10. (C) COMMENT: With fuel prices dropping, at least in the short term, it is unclear whether the public may feel that the reason for the strike has been resolved. On the other hand, the shootings may harden the resolve of the NLC and its strike partners for more permanent change in the way Nigeria is run. Nigeria awaits further pronouncements from the NLC and the GON to clarify the situation, but the momentum may carry the strike through the weekend. CAMPBELL