U/S TAYLOR'S MEETING WITH FINANCE MINISTER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 ABUJA 001007 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID ECON EFIN EIND EINT EMIN ENRG EPET ETRD ETTC NI SUBJECT: U/S TAYLOR'S MEETING WITH FINANCE MINISTER REF: A. ABUJA 954 ¶B. ABUJA 903 ¶1. Summary: In a meeting with Treasury U/S Taylor, Nigerian Finance Minister Okonjo-Iweala said the Ministry will carry out an audit of petroleum revenues to make sure the GON is getting its fair share, and the results will be reported to the public. The GON is sidelining its windfall cash from higher-than-budgeted oil revenues and hopes to use a good chunk of it for infrastructure investment. Civil Service reform is proceeding in four ministries, eliminating "ghost" workers, cutting positions at the lower levels and hiring more skilled people at the top. The Finance Ministry intends to bring Nigeria's tax and customs systems more into line with ECOWAS norms, eventually ending the various product bans. The GON is considering a bond issue aimed at the Nigerian Diaspora to raise funds for mortgage lending. And the GON was disappointed at not being selected for the Millennium Challenge Account but hopes to be selected when future data show evidence of the effectiveness of the GON's current reforms. End Summary. ¶2. On May 25, 2004, Treasury Undersecretary for International Affairs John B. Taylor met with Nigerian Finance Minister Dr. (Mrs.) Ngozi Okonjo-Iewala at the Ministry of Finance in Abuja. The two conducted a meeting of over one hour covering the waterfront on Nigerian economic reform. -------------- Transparency: Audit of Petroleum Revenues -------------- ¶3. Minister Okonjo-Iweala introduced Dr. Bright E. Okogu, the Finance Minister's Adviser on Oil and Gas, and noted that his full-time job was to account for Nigeria's oil revenues. She strongly supports the EITI (Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative) but sees an asymmetry of information in that the GON has little insight into the costs and expenditures of multinational oil subsidiaries in Nigeria. For this reason, the GON is about to begin an audit of oil production and revenues, both of the GON and the multinational oil subsidiaries working in Nigeria. The Minister had advertised in the international financial press to seek bids from auditors that have the capacity to carry out this large audit. ¶4. For the audit, the GON has received the support or technical assistance from the Soros Foundation as well as the UK's Department for International Development (DFID) and the World Bank. The Minister hoped to have the audits started this summer and finished by the end of 2004, with a preliminary report issued in December that she would release publicly. Even in the absence of intentional fraud, there may be anomalies in accounting for oil revenues. She noted that former World Bank Chief Economist and Nobel Prize Winner Joseph Stiglitz had analyzed Alaskan oil revenues and found a discrepancy of a few cents per barrel. In the end, Exxon-Mobil ended up returning a billion dollars per year to the Alaskan government. ¶5. One of the difficulties the Minister faces is the choice of an auditor. There are few auditing firms with the international capacity to do such a large audit, and one had to make sure these were not the same firms that audited the oil multinationals in the first place. She asked the Undersecretary his advice in finding the proper auditors for this purpose. The Undersecretary recommended that the Minister choose the best auditor she could find under these constraints, then have a panel evaluate the results of the audit. -------------- Transparency: The Federal Budget -------------- ¶6. Beyond oil and gas, which accounts for over 70% of Nigeria's budget, the Minister spoke of her efforts toward making the entire budget process transparent. She passed out copies of "Understanding the Budget 2004," a simple brochure written at the high-school level and intended for a broad public. She expressed pleasure that the GON had gotten the budget deficit down to less than two percent of GDP. She was confident the GON would meet the 2% deficit target and considered it a sort of "work performance measure" for herself. ¶7. In order to monitor the budget and keep it on track, the Minister conducts monthly meetings of a Cash Management Committee. This committee matches current and projected expenditures. In addition, the IMF is monitoring Nigerian finances quarterly. Very precise structural benchmarks are a part of the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS),and Nigeria is acting as if it were under an IMF Structural Adjustment Program, the Minister stated. -------------- Budget Process -------------- ¶8. On the budget, the Minister was very pleased for the first time in several years to have a budget passed by both houses and signed by the president. She characterized the process of arriving at a budget as being full of "congressional interference," but the all parties came to agreement after much consultation. In addition to the low deficit, she liked the fact that the AIE, "authority to incur expenditure," had been limited to a much smaller number of people than previously. The Due Process Office under Dr. Oby Ezekeswili reviews contracts twice a month, and no contract can be approved until audited. (Reftel 2) -------------- Eliminating Subsidies on Fuel Prices -------------- ¶9. Regarding fuel prices, the Finance Ministry had attempted to eliminate subsidies and add a tax to oil of Naira 50 per barrel for road construction and maintenance. As a result of the price hike, organized labor took the government to court. But contrary to popular opinion, the court had only ordered the removal of the petroleum tax but not the continuation of subsidies, so gasoline prices were on their way back up again. (Comment: Price at the pump in Abuja was Naira 53 per liter on May 30, a good 20% above price levels in previous weeks. Labor unions are threatening strikes June 9. End comment.) -------------- -------------- Reserve Account for "Excess Revenues" from Petroleum -------------- -------------- ¶10. The Finance Ministry was very careful to maintain "excess revenues" from petroleum sales in a special reserve account. (Note: in the Nigerian budget context, this refers to sales of petroleum above the benchmark price of USD 25 per barrel. End Note.) The Minister thought it very important that the government not dip into this account in normal times, or one would see volatility, growth of the money supply and inflation. When oil prices decrease, the GON could use the reserves from this account to shore up budgeted expenditures. Although the assets in this account belong to the entire federation, she did not want to share it with the states unless they had a dialog and passed a fiscal responsibility bill. So far, twelve of the 36 states are willing to agree to this on the condition that they get their own separate "excess revenues" account. She was proud of the fact that the federal government had saved USD 1.5 billion in this account so far. -------------- Infrastructure Investments? -------------- ¶11. Although the reserve account is primarily for saving "excess revenues" and smoothing out the effects of oil price volatility, the Minister expressed interest in using part of these funds to invest massively in infrastructure. She noted that investors in Nigeria put infrastructure first on their list of problems for doing business in Nigeria, and this discourages new investment. Spain had changed dramatically after its admission to the European Union, mainly because the EU invested massively in Spain,s infrastructure. It would take USD 700 million per year just to repair and maintain Nigeria's roads, so infrastructure investment, to be effective, would have to be massive. -------------- Monetary Policy -------------- ¶14. Nigeria is closely following IMF-approved monetary targets, the Minister said. She welcomed the appointment of President Obasanjo's chief economic advisor, Dr. Charles Soludo, as Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). She characterized the CBN as "quite independent" and expressed confidence the CBN under Soludo's leadership would reduce money supply growth and hold to development targets with the help of the IMF. And since Dr. Soludo is a co-author of the NEEDS program, he would continue to support the NEEDS program. -------------- Civil Service Reform -------------- ¶15. Civil service reform is underway, particularly pension reform, monetization of benefits, eliminating overlap and right-sizing. Four ministries are pilot projects for this: the ministries of Finance, Planning, Information and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Ministries are judged by their functions and how well, or whether, they perform them. Analysis showed that the ministries were too heavy at the bottom and too light at the top. The Finance Ministry, is now eliminating positions at the lower level while hiring more top-level people. British Prime Minister Tony Blair lent the GON his service delivery expert to assist ministries in setting goals and targets. ¶16. The FCT Ministry faces special challenges, providing services for six million people in a territory originally planned for three million. Its Minister, Nasir El-Rufai is a Minister, mayor and governor rolled into one. Civil service reform immediately resulted in the reduction of the FCT,s workforce from 25,000 to 22,000 without a single layoff. An audit revealed that 3,000 FCT workers were "ghost workers," fictitious names on the payroll whose salaries were presumably collected by others. ¶17. The next ministry she hoped to bring into the civil service reform process was the Ministry of Works. -------------- Privatization -------------- ¶18. The Minister reported the GON is struggling with stated-owned electric power monopoly Nigerian Electric Power Authority (NEPA) and is currently struggling with ways to unbundle the various services (e.g., power transmission, power generation, etc.). She was happy to report the GON had sold a refinery in Sierra Leone and was seeking to privatize four refineries in Nigeria. -------------- Telecommunications -------------- ¶19. Minister Okonjo-Iweala noted that allowing private wireless telephony companies into the market had transformed the telecommunications sector in Nigeria. Prior to liberalization, Nigeria had around 400,000 telephone lines. Now, thanks to wireless telephony, the country has 4.5 million telephone lines. -------------- Tax Reform -------------- ¶20. In the area of tax reform, the GON is trying to bring down the multiplicity of taxes, levies and excises and lower the corporate income tax rate from 30% to 20%. The GON will also raise the Value Added Tax (VAT),because Nigeria's at 5% is below Ghana's at 5 1/2 % and well below the 10% average in West Africa. UNDP and the EU were supporting implementation in this area. The Minister had hired a very capable young woman who had run her own firm in the private sector to run Nigeria's internal revenue service. The GON had also retired the top 75 customs managers and accelerated the promotion at the lower ranks to the top jobs. She hopes the new managers, with the help of training, standardization and automation, will help clean up the customs service, which she characterized as "terribly corrupt." She noted this move was very popular with the public and sent a strong signal. -------------- Foreign Direct Investment -------------- ¶21. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) increased slightly. The CEO of Nestl, which had been disinvesting in Nigeria since the 1970s, told the Minister in January that he was so confident about the direction in which Nigeria is heading that Nestl planned to invest 30 million Swiss Francs (USD 24 million) in a factory in Abeokuta. An Italian firm had decided to open a leather goods factor in Kano. And South African companies would invest USD 1 billion in oil and gas as well as non-oil services such as hotels. The Protea chain is opening a hotel in Lagos on Bar Beach. Agralite plans to invest USD 20 million in solid minerals exploitation, including tantalite, for which there are major deposits in Nigeria, including in the FCT. The Swiss will invest USD 20 million in dairies. And Robotics Professor Dr. Bart Nnaji is investing in an independent power plant in Abia state that will be gas-powered and able to produce 50 megawatts at eight cents per kilowatt. -------------- Housing: Diaspora Mortgage Bonds? -------------- ¶22. Nigeria hopes to gain assistance from the Nigerian diaspora in the US. The Minister noted that Mexico got members of the Mexican diaspora in the US to provide funds for underwriting mortgages in Mexico. India was also able to pull in funds from the Indian diaspora, both for government guaranteed and private sector bond issues. The Nigerian diaspora in the US, some 400,000 strong, has one of the highest educational levels of any US immigrant group, with three-quarters possessing professional degrees, including 25,000 physicians. She envisioned some sort of "partnership for prosperity" with their help. Already she calculated that official remittances from Nigerians abroad came to USD twelve billion per year, of which about half comes from the US. -------------- Regional Cooperation -------------- ¶23. Minister Okonjo-Iweala noted that Nigeria did not get sufficient credit for its positive role in the West African region. To date, the GON has spent USD eight billion in peacekeeping and attempts to settle regional conflicts. It is a major supplier of electricity to Niger on concessional terms. Uganda owes Nigeria USD six million in loans and for peacekeeping. And Nigeria established a USD 500 million fund for the region in the 1980s, at a time when Nigeria really did not have money to spare. -------------- Trade Policy -------------- ¶24. The Minister emphasized the need for a systematic trade policy in Nigeria. She attributed the various import bans to Obasanjo's strong feelings about various imports, such as counterfeit textiles. She showed genuine cloth made by NICHEMWAX and showed the counterfeit product from China, which was undercutting the genuine article by 25%. She also showed counterfeit tie-died fabrics made in South Korea that she had bought at upscale G Street Fabrics in Washington, DC. The president had gotten so angry over such counterfeits, she said, that he had slapped a ban on ALL textile imports. While unfortunate, the banned products only account for ten percent of Nigeria's imports, and the effective duty with exemptions for Nigeria's overall trade was 20 percent. She hoped eventually to bring Nigeria's tariff rates into conformity with those of its ECOWAS partners. She was surprised to find that some foreign firms with a vested interests in some of Nigeria's trade anomalies were actually against the rationalization of Nigeria's trade regime. -------------- -------------- Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC),Evian Approach -------------- -------------- ¶25. The Minister said that HIPCs, Nigeria included, represent a major problem for the world that needed to be addressed. Debt levels remain unsustainably high. It is unprecedented to go to the Paris Club without an IMF Structural Adjustment Program in place, but it will be necessary to renegotiate with the Paris Club in some form, or the GON will have no capital budget for infrastructure. ¶26. Minister Okonjo-Iweala hoped that Nigeria could benefit from treatment by the Evian Approach for debt sustainability. She hoped the US could spearhead Nigeria's consideration for this treatment. -------------- -- Cooperation with US Treasury on Debt Management -------------- -- ¶27. Minister Okonjo-Iweala praised the performance of Treasury employee Francis Odubekun, detailed to the Debt Management Office, and wished he could stay in Nigeria beyond the end of his tour of duty, which is about to end. She also hoped to receive help from the US on tax administration, automation and information management and to establish the same software and systems across various departments, particularly the Budget Office and the Accountant General,s office. So far, the Finance Ministry is receiving help from UNDP and the EU on this. -------------- Millennium Challenge Account (MCA) -------------- ¶28. The Minister regretted that Nigeria had not made the cut for the Millennium Challenge Account this year. She was surprised at this, she said, because the GON had filled out the application with its fiscal indicators, many of which were showing a positive trends. The Undersecretary pointed out that the MCA is decided based on sixteen indicators, including trade policy, inflation rate, time required to start a business, rate of school completion, openness, political freedom, etc. many of which are not affected by reforms in fiscal policy. Nigeria had not scored as high on many of these as certain other African countries. Having submitted only the GON's fiscal portion of the application, she was unaware of these other indicators and promised to look closely at the MCA website. The Undersecretary requested the Minister's feedback as to whether she thinks all the indicators used are valid measures. The exercise is backward-looking and does not show current or future reform, the Undersecretary said, but next year is another year, and next year's data will start to show this year,s accomplishments. The Minister responded that future data will show improvement and invited him to look at the IMF,s latest Article IV report on Nigeria, which highlights the GON's accomplishments of the past six months. She noted the time lag between reform measures and when they show up in economic data can be demoralizing to reformers, as they ask people to suffer but cannot show concrete results. But she was very confident that perseverance would pay off in the end. ROBERTS