DEPUTY CENTCOM COMMANDER DISCUSSES REGIONAL SITUATION WITH UAE ARMED FORCES DEPUTY CHIEF OF STAFF

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ABU DHABI 002194



SIPDIS



SECAF FOR DR ROCHE, CSAF FOR GENERALS JUMPER AND

MOSELEY AND USCENTAF FOR LTG BUCHANAN

STATE FOR D, PM, NEA/NGA, NEA/ARP



E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/03/2014

TAGS: PREL, MASS, MARR, MOPS, IZ, SA, PK, YM, TC

SUBJECT: DEPUTY CENTCOM COMMANDER DISCUSSES

REGIONAL SITUATION WITH UAE ARMED FORCES DEPUTY

CHIEF OF STAFF



Ref: (A) Abu Dhabi 2113 (B) Abu Dhabi 1157



Classified by Richard A. Albright, Charge

d'Affaires, a.i., reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).



1. (S) Summary: CENTCOM Deputy Commander

Lieutenant General Lance Smith on June 28

discussed security and the transition to

sovereignty in Iraq, the deteriorating situation

in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan's efforts to combat

foreign fighters, and the UAE's request for an

armed Predator, with UAE Armed Forces Deputy

Chief of Staff Staff Major General Hamad Thani

Al-Rumaithy in Abu Dhabi. The two sides also

agreed to meet later this summer to review UAE

concerns with the proposed Proliferation Security

Initiative (PSI) Shipboarding Agreement. End

Summary.



2. (U) The Charge, USLO Deputy, and Polchief

(notetaker) attended. Hamad Thani was

accompanied by GHQ Special Advisor Jack

McGuinness.



Iraq

--------------



3. (S) In a broad review of developments in Iraq,

Hamad Thani and Smith discussed the new Iraqi

leadership's capabilities, ongoing security

problems, and the influence of foreign fighters.

Iraqis can be unpredictable, making it difficult

for outsiders to know what will happen next,

Hamad Thani said. He agreed with Smith that the

new Iraqi president and prime minister have

strong qualities that should allow them to govern

during the six-month interim period leading up to

the elections. Hamad Thani made the point that

it will be important to see the positive impact

of sovereign governance and decision-making on

the Iraqi street. "The world community wants to

see something positive in Iraq," he said.



4. (S) Smith said the US would appreciate the

UAE's continued vocal support for the new Iraq.

"We all have to make sure it's a successful

government." Smith said the US would like to

see an Iraq that cooperates with its neighbors,

and refrains from developing or using Weapons of

Mass Destruction. He noted that Iraq has

considerable natural wealth, not to mention $18

billion of U.S. aid. "If they (Iraqis) can use

that for reconstruction and get moving, we will

leave and they will have a great future."



5. (S) Hamad Thani thanked the U.S. for what it

is doing in Iraq and said that all are looking

forward to a stable region. He said there had

been seven wars fought in the region since 1948.

The Arab-Israeli conflict had generated more

instability, and he viewed that as the greatest

source of the region's problems. There is a need

for a gradual transition period, he said. Hamad

Thani said it took him 10 years to fully accept

that Israelis and Palestinians had to co-exist.

"People are not sane. We have had enough wars;

we need to get the problem solved as the world is

getting smaller." He said there are many global

issues, such as pollution, that require our

attention as well.



6. (S) Smith said that despite the unacceptable

levels of violence, there were some encouraging

developments on the security front. The Iraqi

forces are in the process of establishing a

complete chain of command from the field to the

CHOD. Iraq was bringing back members of the old

armed forces (those without blood on their hands)

to lend their experience to the new security

forces, changes that Hamad Thani supported.

Smith cited the new Iraqi National Guard that

will report to a chain of command that is

entirely Iraqi.



7. (S) Hamad Thani asked Smith what role he

thought Moqtada Al-Sadr might play. Smith

responded that the coalition and the Iraqi

Security Forces are working to neutralize Sadr's

Militia and that we understand that Sadr will

continue to create problems if he is not included

in the political process. Hamad Thani was

skeptical that Sadr's militia would hand in their

weapons. Hamad Thani also inquired about whom

might be supporting militant Mussab Al-Zarqawi.

Smith replied that Zarqawi was his own man with

his own network and ideas, likely not working

directly for Osama bin Laden. However, he has

recruited followers of Ansar-al-Islam and has

been able to count on the cooperation of former

Saddam elements. Zarqawi brings leadership to

disparate elements in the region, Smith said.

Smith said countering this insurgency is

difficult because there are so many weapons in

Iraq. Hamad Thani stated that many of the

weapons seized in the Straits of Hormuz had

originated in Yemen.



Saudi Arabia

--------------



8. (S) Hamad Thani said he shared Smith's concern

about Saudi Arabia's battle against militant

extremists. The phenomenon, he said, will take

time to uproot. He was critical of the Saudis

for not listening to warnings about extremist

violence, and for acting late to prevent the

violence. Hamad Thani said the UAEG believes

that if the Saudi regime were to collapse, the

repercussions for the region would be enormous.

Smith questioned whether Bahrain and Kuwait might

be waiting too long to respond to their

respective extremist problems, but Hamad Thani

said he was not as worried about Bahrain.



Pakistan

--------------



9. (S) Both sides agreed about the strategic

importance of Pakistan in the region and

acknowledged President Musharraf's uphill

struggle to modernize Pakistani society. Hamad

Thani credited Pakistan's ability to stave off

extremism to Musharraf's strong leadership, his

background as a soldier, and the strong tradition

of his armed forces. He said that Western

democracy will not work in Pakistan. The

Pakistanis need a strong leader, but not a

criminal like Saddam Hussein. Hamad Thani noted

the difficulties Musharraf and the central

government face in regions, such as Balushistan

and the northwest region along the Pakistan-

Afghanistan border, where they have no authority.

Smith said Musharraf is having an effect

combating foreign fighters like Al-Qaida in

Pakistan, and added that Musharraf will continue

engaging those fighters with or without the

cooperation of Pakistan's tribal leaders.

Predator

--------------

10. (S) Hamad Thani and Smith reviewed the

discussion between Abu Dhabi Deputy Crown Prince

and UAE Armed Forces Chief of Staff Shaykh

Mohamed bin Zayed (MbZ) had had with Brigadier

General Yaggi, Director of Regional Affairs for

the Deputy Under Secretary of the Air Force for

International Affairs, a day earlier (ref A) on

the UAE's request for an armed Predator. Hamad

Thani said that MbZ had told him he was baffled

that the USG could sell F-16 Block 60s to the UAE

and refuse to release an armed Predator. "This

issue is disappointing to the UAE, though we

understand the circumstances," he said. He said

the UAE is in the process of studying other UAV

options, including producing its own (in

partnership with foreign companies),although he

acknowledged that the Predator's capability is

superior. Smith said he would convey the UAEG's

views.



PSI Shipboarding Agreement

--------------



11. (C) Hamad Thani provided an update on the

status of his government's review of a proposed

PSI Shipboarding Agreement, which Post had raised

with MbZ last April (ref B). He said that a

defense committee at the armed forces GHQ had

been studying the agreement and had some

concerns, but no objections. One concern their

military lawyers had was whether the U.S. could

board a UAE-flagged vessel after a certain

interval of time without obtaining the UAEG's

approval in advance. The Charge said the

agreement addresses the consultation process.

Hamad Thani acknowledged that when two countries

reach the level of cooperation that the U.S. and

the UAE enjoy, there are situations where it may

be necessary to take immediate action when time

is of the essence.



12. (C) Hamad Thani said the Ministries of

Justice and Foreign Affairs are reviewing the PSI

agreement as well. It was agreed that Post would

follow up with the GHQ's point person on the PSI

Shipboarding Agreement after he returns to the

country in mid-July. Hamad Thani said that MbZ

had told him to do his best to make the agreement

work. "Eventually, all these agreements must

comply with international law," he said. It is

important that the two sides work out the legal

details.



13. (U) This message was cleared by Lt Gen Smith.



14. (U) Baghdad minimize considered.

ALBRIGHT