SHAYKH MOHAMED BIN ZAYED REJECTS UNARMED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABU DHABI 002113 SIPDIS SECAF FOR DR ROCHE, CSAF FOR GENERALS JUMPER AND MOSELEY AND USCENTAF FOR LTG BUCHANAN STATE FOR D, PM, NEA/ARP E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2014 TAGS: MCAP MASS TC SUBJECT: SHAYKH MOHAMED BIN ZAYED REJECTS UNARMED PREDATOR PROPOSAL Ref: State 111651 (EXDIS) (U) Classified by Richard A. Albright, Charg d'Affaires, a.i., reasons 1. 5 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Abu Dhabi Deputy Crown Prince and UAE Armed Forces Chief of Staff Shaykh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan (MbZ) met on June 26 with a SAF/IA team led by Brigadier General Ronald Yaggi, Director of Regional Affairs for the Deputy Under Secretary of the Air Force for International Affairs, to receive a briefing on the US Predator unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) proposal. MbZ rejected the U.S. proposal for an unarmed Predator-A export version telling General Yaggi that only an armed version of the UAV would fulfill the UAE's national security objectives. End Summary. ¶2. (C) During a June 26 briefing by a SAF/IA team led by General Yaggi, MbZ said he was not interested in the "interim solution," a Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) Category II compliant unarmed Predator- ¶A. MbZ said he was aware of the USG's strict policy limitations regarding such transfers. He expressed regret that the US could not meet his need for an armed UAV. He said that he always preferred to work with us and equip his forces with US equipment and systems. MbZ reiterated that the UAE was the only Arab and Muslim country contributing forces in Afghanistan. MbZ explained that the UAE needed armed Predator UAVs to protect their special forces units deployed in Afghanistan as well as for coastal and border surveillance. An armed Predator would enable the UAE to strike at terrorists and drug smugglers. ¶3. (C) MbZ, who expressed frustration at having waited more than two years for a USG response to his request for an armed Predator, had raised the UAE request repeatedly with State and DoD interlocutors, as recently as his May 2004 visit to Washington (see reftel). MbZ told General Yaggi that the UAE is prepared to develop an indigenous armed UAV with the help of other countries, citing Israel, South Africa, France, Italy, Germany, and China as potential partners. "There are a lot of offers," he said. More than one system is "under study," MbZ said, adding that the UAE will be deploying its South African-made Seeker II UAV's at Bagram Air Base in the fall. MbZ realizes that any UAV it develops with other partners will not initially be equal in capability to the US Predator, but believes that it would gain capability over time. He also acknowledged that the MTCR would prevent the UAE from selling the UAV it develops, but the UAE has an "operational requirement" that must be fulfilled. Referring to SAF/IA's Predator-A proposal, MbZ said, "If it is not armed, this proposal is not acceptable." ¶4. (C) BG Yaggi said that we viewed this proposal as an interim solution, that the modified ISR-Predator could be upgraded and simply used as a gap filler. It would also have the same operational capabilities as the US ISR version. General Yaggi told MbZ that the US considers an armed Predator-A UAV less effective than F-16s, Apache helicopters or patrol boats in intercepting targets at sea or in the desert. He also said that the US has never sold an armed Predator to anyone. MbZ said that he had other UAV's that could provide surveillance, and that his requirement was for an armed version only. MbZ rejected the idea that an unarmed ISR-Predator would provide superior surveillance and could be tied into their air defense network where fighters, attack helicopters, or patrol boats could be used as an armed response. ¶5. (C) After rejecting the modified Predator-A alternative, MbZ said there was no need to see SAF/IA's full briefing. General Yaggi said that he would convey MbZ's decision to Washington. ¶6. (C) Comment: Despite having left the impression with several interlocutors over the past year that he would ultimately consider an unarmed Predator if that were his only option, MbZ has now closed the door with his statement that he will only consider an armed UAV. MbZ did not indicate that he objected to the idea of a modified MTCR-compliant Predator, his only stipulation being that it had to be armed. MbZ's position leaves three options: (1) Make no further offers and provide MbZ with an official negative response. MbZ said such a response would propel him to develop an armed UAV with a foreign partner. (2) Consider release of an armed, MTCR-compliant, Predator. (3) Work for an MTCR revision that would allow transfer of Predator-B to the UAE. ¶7. (C) The country team position is that options 2 and 3 are far preferable to option 1. We urge the interagency stakeholders to work toward release of an armed Predator that would meet UAE needs. ¶8. (U) This message was cleared by Brigadier General Yaggi. ALBRIGHT