TFIZ01: CROATIA'S PM DISCUSSES GOC IRAQ POLICY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ZAGREB 000669 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2008 TAGS: PREL KAWC PGOV MARR HR KAWC PGOV MARR HR KAWC PGOV MARR HR IZ IZPREL IZPREL SUBJECT: TFIZ01: CROATIA'S PM DISCUSSES GOC IRAQ POLICY WITH AMBASSADOR CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR LAWRENCE ROSSING FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) PRIME MINISTER RACAN "INVITED THE AMBASSADOR FOR CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 00669 01 OF 03 251246Z COFFEE" MARCH 24 TO CLARIFY THE GOC'S REASONS FOR ADOPTING A POSITION NOT ALIGNED WITH OURS ON IRAQ. (THIS GOC POSITION HAS BEEN PLAYED OUT UNHELPFULLY IN THE PRESS OVER RECENT DAYS, AND THE AMBASSADOR CRITICIZED IT IN TWO INTERVIEWS.) ONE-ON-ONE, RACAN LAID OUT HIS MISGIVINGS ABOUT THE U.S. DECISION TO GO TO WAR WITHOUT A FINAL SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION. HE SAID THE GOC'S OPPOSITION TO BEING INCLUDED IN THE COALITION OF THE WILLING WAS PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF THE SEVERE RISK OF A SPLIT IN THE GOVERNING COALITION AND GOC LEADERSHIP. THAT WOULD HAVE DESTABILIZED CROATIA AND ULTIMATELY THE REGION AND NOT BEEN IN THE U.S. INTEREST EITHER. RACAN CONFIRMED THAT THE GOC WOULD CONSIDER NEW SUPPORT REQUESTS FOR COALITION OPERATIONS IF RECEIVED. (COMMENT: BUT WE CONSIDER IT VERY UNREALISTIC TO EXPECT MUCH MORE FROM CROATIA AND CERTAINLY NOT WITHOUT PROTRACTED POLITICAL DEBATE). RACAN STRESSED THAT THE GOC REMAINS COMMITTED IN THE WAR ON TERRORISM, BUT HE BELIEVED THE IRAQ INTERVENTION WOULD COMPLICATE THAT EFFORT. RACAN SAID THAT THE OPPOSITION HDZ, IN TAKING A PRO-U.S. STANCE, AIMED TO SCORE CHEAP POINTS WITH US WHILE IT CREATED NEW ARGUMENTS FOR CURBING COOPERATION WITH ICTY UNDER A POTENTIAL FUTURE HDZ GOVERNMENT. RACAN'S PRESENTATION, HARPING ON FAMILIAR THEMES, UNDERSCORED ONCE AGAIN HIS LACK OF STRONG LEADERSHIP AND THAT DOMESTIC POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS ARE ALWAYS HIS CORE CONCERN. END SUMMARY. DOMESTIC CONSTRAINTS CONSTRAIN GOC POSITION -------------- ¶2. (C) AFTER TEN DAYS OF EXTENSIVE MEDIA BACK AND FORTH BY CROATIA'S POLITICAL LEADERSHIP OVER ITS IRAQ POLICY, PM RACAN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 00669 01 OF 03 251246Z TOOK ADVICE FROM HIS AMBASSADOR IN WASHINGTON AND FROM HNS PARTY LEADER VESNA PUSIC AND INVITED THE AMBASSADOR FOR COFFEE MARCH 24 TO EXPLAIN HIS GOVERNMENT'S POSITION DIRECTLY. HE SAID HE WAS UNHAPPY WITH THE TONE OF THE PUBLIC POLEMIC. CROATIA WAS IN A "VERY DELICATE" POSITION. WHEN THE U.S. FAILED TO SECURE A FINAL UNSC RESOLUTION BEFORE ;STARTING HOSTILITIES, THE GOC WAS COMPELLED TO DECLINE OUR INVITATION TO JOIN THE COALITION OF THE WILLING. RACAN SAID HE HAD NO CHOICE, AND THE AMBASSADOR'S MARCH 19 INTERVIEW STATEMENT THAT HE HAD NOT SHOWN LEADERSHIP FAILED TO APPRECIATE THE PM'S SEVERE POLITICAL CONSTRAINTS. THE GOC WAS DEEPLY DIVIDED, WITH HIMSELF AND FM PICULA AMONG THOSE SUPPORTIVE; THEY WERE PITTED AGAINST FERVENT ANTI-WAR WING LED BY PRESIDENT MESIC AND PARLIAMENT SPEAKER TOMCIC. HAD HE TRIED TO FORCE A POSITION SUPPORTIVE OF THE U.S., RACAN SAID THE GOC WOULD HAVE SPLIT DOWN THE MIDDLE. THAT WOULD HAVE DESTABILIZED CROATIA AND THEREFORE THE REGION AND THEREFORE DONE A DISSERVICE TO KNOWN U.S. INTERESTS. "WHAT USE TO YOU WOULD CROATIAN SUPPORT ON IRAQ BE IF IN THE PROCESS CROATIA TURNED INTO A 'HOTSPOT?'" ¶3. (C) ALTHOUGH HE PUT HIMSELF IN THE MORE SYMPATHETIC CAMP, RACAN EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT THE WAR WOULD HEIGHTEN INSTABILITY FOR CROATIA, THE REGION AND THE WORLD. APART FROM HIS REGIONAL DESTABILIZATION ARGUMENT, RACAN WORRIED ABOUT HEIGHTENED GLOBAL ANTI-AMERICANISM STEMMING FROM THE CONFLICT -- BAD NOT ONLY FOR THE UNITED STATES BUT FOR THE WORLD. RACAN ALSO ARGUED WITH PERSONAL CONVICTION THAT THE IRAQ WAR WOULD MAKE THE TERRORISM PROBLEM WORSE -- TRANSFORMING WHAT HE SAW AS A SERIOUS BUT FINITE THREAT INTO SOMETHING NOW MORE LIKELY TO BE "PERMANENT." THIS HAD CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 00669 01 OF 03 251246Z IMPLICATIONS FOR CROATIA TOO BECAUSE CROATIA REMAINS A STEADFAST AND COMMITTED PARTNER IN THE STRUGGLE AGAINST GLOBAL TERRORISM. HDZ OPPORTUNISM - HIDDEN AGENDA REGARDING WAR CRIMES -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) CLEARLY IRRITATED THAT THE AMBASSADOR HAD HAD ANYTHING GOOD TO SAY ABOUT THE OPPOSITION HDZ PUBLICLY, RACAN BOTH DISMISSED AND WARNED US ABOUT THE MEANING OF THE PRO-U.S. POSITION TAKEN BY ITS LEADER IVO SANADER. RACAN SAID THAT ONE REASON FOR SANADER'S STANCE WAS, OF COURSE, SCORING CHEAP POLITICAL POINTS AGAINST THE GOC AND WITH WASHINGTON; WE SHOULD NOT THINK SANADER OR THE HDZ SINCERE. BUT MUCH OF THE HDZ HAD A SECOND, TROUBLING AGENDA THAT HE HAD ALLUDED TO IN A MARCH 22 NEWSPAPER INTERVIEW: TO CREATE NEW POLITICO-LEGAL ARGUMENTS AGAINST COOPERATION WITH THE HAGUE WAR CRIMES TRIBUNAL (ICTY) FOR WHEN IT RETURNS TO POWER. LET'S BE REAL, RACAN SAID: THE U.S., AS THE BIGGEST POWER, COULD CHOOSE WHICH UNSCRS IT FOLLOWED AND WHICH NOT. A SMALL COUNTRY LIKE CROATIA CANNOT, AND THUS THIS GOC IS ADAMANT THAT CROATIA MUST HONOR ITS OBLIGATIONS TOWARD ICTY. THE HDZ, HOWEVER, WILL ARGUE THAT WHAT'S PERMITTED TO THE USG IS PERMITTED TO CROATIA AND THUS IT NEED NOT, WITHOUT QUESTION OR QUALIFICATION, COMPLY WITH SO-CALLED INTERNATIONAL OBLIGATIONS ON WAR CRIMES. RACAN SAID HE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ8326 PAGE 01 ZAGREB 00669 02 OF 03 251246Z ACTION SS-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 PERC-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EUR-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 MFLO-03 AC-01 NEA-00 DCP-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 DHS-00 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SCT-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 R-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-01 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /010W -------------- 4A4A84 251247Z /38 O 251246Z MAR 03 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9803 INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 ZAGREB 000669 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2008 TAGS: PREL KAWC PGOV MARR HR KAWC PGOV MARR HR KAWC PGOV MARR HR IZ IZPREL IZPREL SUBJECT: TFIZ01: CROATIA'S PM DISCUSSES GOC IRAQ POLICY WITH AMBASSADOR REJECTS THAT STANCE, BUT AVOIDING GIVING HDZ ARGUMENTS ANY LEGS WAS A FURTHER ELEMENT IN THE GOC DECISION TO STAY AWAY FROM THE IRAQ COALITION AND TAKE A STRICT CONSTRUCTIONIST POSITION ABOUT UNSCRS GENERALLY. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: RACAN'S FOCUS ON THE RISK OF DOMESTIC CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 00669 02 OF 03 251246Z DESTABILIZATION AND THEREFORE OF DAMAGING USG REGIONAL INTERESTS SHOULD HE TAKE A BOLD DECISION IS FAMILIAR -- ANYTIME A TOUGH CHOICE LOOMS, RACAN USES THE SAME ARGUMENT TO SOLICIT USG "UNDERSTANDING" OF CROATIA'S "UNIQUE CIRCUMSTANCES." WE NEVER HAVE BOUGHT IT AND DO NOT NOW, BUT HIS FOCUS IS ALWAYS ON DOMESTIC POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS, NO MATTER THE IMPLICATIONS OF A DECISION FOR CROATIA'S LARGER INTERESTS. USG DISAPPOINTMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) AFTER RACAN SPOKE THUSLY FOR AN HOUR, THE AMBASSADOR REMARKED THAT IT WOULD HAVE BEEN BETTER HAD HE HEARD THE PM'S EXPLANATION OF CROATIA'S POLICY TEN DAYS AGO IN PRIVATE, RATHER THAN READING ABOUT IT FOR OVER A WEEK IN THE PAPERS. THE AMBASSADOR EXPRESSED HIS OWN DISAPPOINTMENT THAT THE DEBATE HAD BECOME SO PUBLIC. WE REMAINED "DISAPPOINTED" AT THE LACK OF GOC POLITICAL SUPPORT ON THIS HUGE, HISTORIC ISSUE. OTHER CONSIDERATIONS TENDED TO FADE IN SIGNIFICANCE FOR THE USG AT THIS TIME. BUT AT LEAST A TIMELY PRESENTATION BY THE PM WOULD HAVE ALLOWED US TO INFORM WASHINGTON OF THE GOC'S MOTIVES BEFORE UNATTRACTIVE PRESS COMMENTARY BY HIM, DPM GRANIC AND PRESIDENT MESIC HAD DONE SO. THAT SAID, WE AGREED THAT IT WAS BEST TO CIRCUMSCRIBE OUR AREA OF DISCORD, FOCUS ON POSITIVES SUCH AS WHAT THE GOC HAD APPROVED FOR LOGISTICAL SUPPORT, GWOT COOPERATION AND CROATIA'S STATED DESIRE TO PARTICIPATE IN POST-WAR RECONSTRUCTION IN IRAQ, AND COOL THE MEDIA FEVER. RACAN: GOC STANCE POLITICAL, NOT LEGAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 00669 02 OF 03 251246Z -------------- ¶7. (C) THE AMBASSADOR REJECTED GOC ASSERTIONS THAT COALITION MILITARY ACTION WAS "ILLEGITIMATE" OR IN CONTRAVENTION OF UN RESOLUTIONS. IT WAS ONE THING FOR THE GOC TO TAKE A DIVERGENT POSITION ON POLITICAL GROUNDS, BUT ANOTHER TO ASSERT THAT ITS STANCE HAD LEGAL FOUNDATION WHEN IT HAD PRODUCED NO LEGAL ANALYSIS WHATSOEVER CONTRADICTING THE ANALYSIS WE HAD PRESENTED TO THE GOC. "SHOW US YOUR ANALYSIS OR MODERATE YOUR RHETORIC." RACAN REPLIED BY DISTANCING HIMSELF FROM MESIC'S TERMINOLOGY AND TONE. CONTRARY TO MESIC, RACAN AND THE GOVERNMENT HE LEADS HAD NOT CHARACTERIZED THE U.S. POSITION AS ILLEGITIMATE OR CONTRARY TO UNSC RESOLUTIONS. HE SAID THE GOC SAW NO PURPOSE IN THAT SORT OF DEBATE AND WOULD NOT ENGAGE IN IT. (COMMENT: MESIC IS A FREE AGENT. HE CLEARS NOTHING WITH RACAN OR THE MFA, SO RACAN'S ASSERTION IS PLAUSIBLE. HOWEVER, RACAN PAINTED THE MOST CONCILIATORY POSSIBLE PICTURE OF THE MFA'S, HIS OWN AND OTHER MINISTERS' STATEMENTS. THEY HAVE NOT PUSHED THE LEGAL ARGUMENT AS AGGRESSIVELY AS DID MESIC, BUT NEITHER HAVE THEY STEERED AS WIDE AS RACAN CLAIMED.) PURPORTED ADDITIONAL USG SUPPORT REQUESTS -------------- ¶8. (C) THE AMBASSADOR ASKED RACAN TO EXPLAIN AN ASSERTION IN HIS MARCH 22 INTERVIEW THAT CROATIA, WERE IT TO HAVE JOINED THE COALITION OF THE WILLING, KNEW FROM "INFORMAL CONSULTATIONS" WITH US THAT WE WOULD HAVE ASKED IT TO PROVIDE MUCH MORE MILITARY HELP, IMPLICITLY INCLUDING DEPLOYMENT TO IRAQ. HE REMINDED RACAN THAT HE AND ALL U.S. OFFICIALS HAD CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 00669 02 OF 03 251246Z BEEN VERY PRECISE IN DESCRIBING OUR LIMITED SUPPORT REQUESTS. WE HAD TOLD CABINET MINISTERS REPEATEDLY THAT WE FORESAW NO/NO CROATIAN MILITARY ROLE IN THE IRAQ CAMPAIGN BECAUSE ITS ONLY DEPLOYABLE CAPABILITY WAS ALREADY IN ISAF. RACAN WAS INSISTENT THAT, FROM THE TIME OF OUR REQUEST FOR CIVIL AIR CHARTER LANDING AUTHORIZATION, WE HAD BEEN "TESTING CROATIA" BY IMPLYING FURTHER FORMS OF ASSISTANCE. THE AMBASSADOR STRESSED THAT THAT WAS NOT SO; THAT WE HAD BEEN PRECISE; AND THAT HE AND THE GOC OUGHT TO BE MORE CAREFUL IN TALKING TO THE PRESS ABQ OUR DISCUSSIONS. THIS WAS IN OUR MUTUAL INTEREST, TO AVOID FANTASTIC MEDIA REPORTS OF IMMINENT U.S. MILITARY BASING IN CROATIA. (COMMENT: RACAN BETRAYED CLASSIC BALKANS CONSPIRACY THEORY PROCLIVITIES.) GOC WOULD WEIGH FURTHER REQUESTS -- DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) THE AMBASSADOR NOTED POSITIVELY RACAN'S STATEMENT IN THE SAME INTERVIEW THAT, IF THE USG ASKED FOR FURTHER LOGISTICAL SUPPORT, THE GOC WOULD CONSIDER IT SERIOUSLY. THIS WAS ESPECIALLY WELCOME SINCE DPM GRANIC HAD SAID "NO FURTHER APPROVALS" LAST WEEK. WAS IT TRUE? WHILE NO FURTHER REQUESTS WERE NOW PENDING AND THERE MIGHT NOT BE ANY MORE, THERE MIGHT BE AND WE WOULD WANT SERIOUS CONSIDERATION. ¶10. (C) RACAN CONFIRMED THAT THE GOC WOULD CONSIDER ANY CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ8327 PAGE 01 ZAGREB 00669 03 OF 03 251246Z ACTION SS-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 PERC-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EUR-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 MFLO-03 AC-01 NEA-00 DCP-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 DHS-00 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SCT-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 R-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-01 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /010W -------------- 4A4A88 251247Z /38 O 251246Z MAR 03 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9804 INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 ZAGREB 000669 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2008 TAGS: PREL KAWC PGOV MARR HR KAWC PGOV MARR HR KAWC PGOV MARR HR IZ IZPREL IZPREL SUBJECT: TFIZ01: CROATIA'S PM DISCUSSES GOC IRAQ POLICY WITH AMBASSADOR FURTHER SUPPORT REQUESTS, INCLUDING PRESENTING THEM TO THE SABOR IF THEIR CHARACTER WAS SUCH AS TO REQUIRE PARLIAMENTARY APPROVAL PURSUANT TO CROATIA'S LAW. (COMMENT: RACAN'S WILLINGNESS TO ENTERTAIN REQUESTS SHOULD NOT BE CONFUSED WITH ANY COMMITMENT TO APPROVE THEM. WE CANNOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE SUPPORT FROM THE GOC. ALMOST ANYTHING ADDITIONAL WOULD CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 00669 03 OF 03 251246Z NEED SABOR APPROVAL; ITS REACTION WOULD LIKELY BE NEGATIVE AND COME ONLY AFTER PROTRACTED CONTROVERSY.) CALMING THE MEDIA FURORE -------------- ¶11. (C) THE AMBASSADOR CONCLUDED BY AGREEING WITH RACAN THAT IT WAS IN NEITHER THE GOC'S NOR OUR INTEREST TO PROLONG MEDIA DEBATE AND SPECULATION THAT THE IRAQ DISAGREEMENT WILL DRIVE OUR TWO COUNTRIES APART. WE WERE DISAPPOINTED, AND CROATIA'S ABSENCE FROM THE LIST OF COALITION PARTNERS WAS NOTICED IN WASHINGTON, BUT IT WOULD SERVE BOTH SIDES TO TURN THE FOCUS ONTO AREAS OF AGREEMENT -- THE GWOT AND POST-WAR RECONSTRUCTION IN PARTICULAR. THE AMBASSADOR AND RACAN AGREED ON A LOW-KEY MEDIA LINE ON THE MEETING WITH THAT THEME. BOTH RACAN AND THE EMBASSY'S PD SECTION USED THOSE THEMES IN ANSWERING PRESS QUERIES ABOUT THE MEETING, AND PRESS COVERAGE OF THE MEETING MARCH 25 REFLECTED THEM. ROSSIN CONFIDENTIAL >