IRAQ: BUCKING UP THE WEAK-KNEED CROATIANS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000347

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE (NARDI)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV HR PGOV HR IZ IZPREL UN
SUBJECT: IRAQ: BUCKING UP THE WEAK-KNEED CROATIANS

REF: ZAGREB 338

CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR LAWRENCE ROSSIN FOR REASONS 1.5 (B,D)

SUMMARY
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1. (C) CROATIA'S INITIAL SUPPORT FOR THE USG POSITION ON
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IRAQ IS WAVERING UNDER PRESSURE FROM EU COUNTRIES AS THE GOC
PREPARES TO PRESENT ITS APPLICATION FOR EU MEMBERSHIP.
PUBLIC OPINION AGAINST ACTION IN IRAQ WITHOUT NEW UNSC
SANCTION IS ALSO A STRONG FACTOR AS PM RACAN TRIES TO KEEP A
SHAKY COALITION TOGETHER. ON FEBRUARY 13, ONE DAY AFTER PM
RACAN CALLED THE RECENT VILNIUS-10 STATEMENT "OPEN TO
INTERPRETATION," THE AMBASSADOR DELIVERED A STRONG MESSAGE TO
THE FOREIGN MINISTRY: THE REAL ISSUE IS NOT HOW THE EU
INTERPRETS CROATIA'S STATEMENTS, BUT HOW THE WORLD REMOVES
THE THREAT OF SADDAM HUSSEIN'S WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION.
LATER ON FEBRUARY 13 (BUT INDEPENDENT OF THE AMBASSADOR'S
MESSAGE),PM RACAN RELEASED A MORE APPROPRIATE STATEMENT (SEE
TEXT AT PARA 9 BELOW) CALLING FOR FULL IRAQI COMPLIANCE WITH
UNSCR 1441 TOGETHER WITH AN APPEAL FOR A UNIFIED POSITION
WITHIN THE EU AND BETWEEN THE EU AND THE USG. IT SEEMS CLEAR
TO US THAT THE GOC BELIEVES THAT SOME EUROPEAN COUNTRIES ARE
READY TO HOLD CROATIA'S EU APPLICATION HOSTAGE TO GOC
BEHAVIOR ON IRAQ. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) ON FEBRUARY 12, PM RACAN TOLD THE PRESS THAT THE
FEBRUARY 5 STATEMENT SIGNED BY THE FOREIGN MINISTERS OF ALL
"VILNIUS 10" COUNTRIES WAS "IMPRECISE ... AND OPEN TO
INTERPRETATION" (REFTEL). ABSENT CLEAR LEADERSHIP, THE
PUBLIC DEBATE IN CROATIA HAS FOCUSED NOT ON THE THREAT POSED
BY SADDAM HUSSEIN'S REGIME AND ITS WEAPONS OF MASS
DESTRUCTION, BUT ON WHETHER OR NOT FM PICULA SHOULD HAVE
SIGNED THE V-10 STATEMENT AND HOW CROATIA'S BID FOR EU
MEMBERSHIP WILL BE AFFECTED BY ITS POSITION ON IRAQ.


3. (C) ON FEBRUARY 13, THE AMBASSADOR SOUGHT AN EARLY
MEETING WITH THE FOREIGN MINISTRY TO GET THE GOC TO REFOCUS
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ITS ENERGY ON THE MORE IMPORTANT ASPECTS OF THIS ISSUE. WITH
ASSISTANT FOREIGN MINISTER NOBILO, HE PRESSED FOR THE GOC TO
"GET OFF THE FENCE;" PM RACAN'S STATEMENT ON FEBRUARY 12 WAS
EQUIVOCAL AND LOOKED LIKE CROATIA WAS BACKING AWAY FROM THE
V-10 STATEMENT. WHAT WAS CROATIA'S POLICY, ANYWAY?


4. (C) NOBILO SAID THAT CROATIA IS NOT BACKING AWAY FROM THE
V-10 STATEMENT, BUT IS TRYING TO ADDRESS THE PERCEPTION IN
THE PUBLIC AND IN POLITICAL CIRCLES THAT THE GOC WAS HURRIED
INTO SIGNING THE STATEMENT AND HAD MADE A BINDING COMMITMENT
TO SUPPORT MILITARY ACTION. HE APPEALED TO THE AMBASSADOR
FOR "PATIENCE AND UNDERSTANDING" AS THE GOC IS IN A DELICATE
SITUATION. THE GOC IS IN THE FINAL STAGES OF SUBMITTING ITS
APPLICATION FOR EU MEMBERSHIP; THE REACTION OF THE EU COULD
HAVE POLITICAL REPERCUSSIONS FOR THE CURRENT COALITION
GOVERNMENT, WHICH IS ALREADY ON SHAKY GROUND IN AN ELECTION
YEAR. NOBILO SAID THAT THE GOC POSITION WOULD BE "CLARIFIED"
BY A STATEMENT TO BE RELEASED LATER IN THE DAY FOLLOWING A
CABINET MEETING THEN UNDERWAY.


5. (C) THE AMBASSADOR SAID WE WOULD LOOK AT THE STATEMENT
CAREFULLY AND WOULD BE BACK IN TOUCH, BUT WARNED THAT THE
ABSENCE OF FORTHRIGHT GOC LEADERSHIP ON THE REAL ISSUE AT
STAKE -- DISARMING SADDAM -- IS ALLOWING THE PUBLIC DEBATE TO
GET OFF TRACK. THE AMBASSADOR SAID HE WAS DISAPPOINTED; THIS
IS ONE OF THE TIMES IN HISTORY WHEN NATIONS MUST TAKE A
STAND; CROATIA TOOK A STRONG STAND WHEN IT SIGNED UP TO THE
V-10 STATEMENT; NOW IT WAS WEAKENING.


6. (C) NOBILO WAS EXPLICIT ABOUT EU PRESSURE, EXPLAINING
THAT THE GOC IS UNDER HEAVY PRESSURE FROM "OPPONENTS" OF THE
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U.S. ON IRAQ (HE DID EVERYTHING BUT SAY FRANCE AND GERMANY BY
NAME). THE "BIG" EU STATES HAVE WARNED THEM THAT THE
"INCOMING COUNTRIES ARE BEING PERCEIVED AS TROUBLEMAKERS" AND
SAID THAT CROATIA MUST BE CAREFUL NOT TO HURT PROSPECTS FOR
ITS APPLICATION FOR EU MEMBERSHIP, WHICH IT PLANS TO SUBMIT
NEXT WEEK. NOBILO SAID THAT THE STATEMENT WOULD NOT WEAKEN
THE V-10'S CALL FOR IRAQ TO DISARM, BUT WOULD ALSO MAKE A
PLEA FOR UNITY WITHIN THE EU AND A UNIFIED POSITION ON IRAQ
THROUGHOUT THE NORTH ATLANTIC COMMUNITY.


7. (C) NOBILO REPEATED HIS PLEA FOR PATIENCE; HE EXPECTS
THAT AFTER THE NEXT BLIX REPORT TO THE UNSC, THE EU COUNCIL
OF MINISTERS MEETING NEXT WEEK AND CROATIA'S SUBMISSION OF
ITS APPLICATION FOR EU MEMBERSHIP, THE GOC WILL BE MORE
RESPONSIVE. THE AMBASSADOR WARNED THAT CROATIA NEEDS TO MAKE
UP ITS OWN MIND; THE LACK OF EU UNITY WOULD CERTAINLY
CONTINUE PAST NEXT MONDAY; THE TIME FOR ACTION WAS SHORT.


8. (C) THE STATEMENT AS RELEASED AFTER THE FEBRUARY 13
CABINET MEETING SEEMS TO REPRESENT ACCURATELY THE CROATIAN
GOVERNMENT'S MUDDLED UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT IS IMPORTANT. IT
CALLS FOR FULL IMPLEMENTATION OF UNSCR 1441 AND DECLARES THAT
IRAQI BEHAVIOR WILL DETERMINE "WHETHER THIS CRISIS WILL END

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ACTION EUR-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 PERC-00
DS-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01
VCE-00 NEA-00 DCP-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 IRM-00 SSO-00
SS-00 EPAE-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-01 NFAT-00 SAS-00
SWCI-00 /005W
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O 131645Z FEB 03
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9460
INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ZAGREB 000347

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE (NARDI)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV HR PGOV HR IZ IZPREL UN
SUBJECT: IRAQ: BUCKING UP THE WEAK-KNEED CROATIANS

IN PEACE OR WAR." BUT THEN THE STATEMENT DRIFTS OFF INTO
CALLS FOR UNITY WITHIN THE EUROPEAN UNION AND FOR A UNIFIED
APPROACH BETWEEN THE EU AND THE U.S. THE AMBASSADOR IS
CONTACTING NOBILO TO URGE THAT THE GOC GET ITS FOCUS BACK ON
THE REAL ISSUE AND OFF OF ITS HAND-WRINGING.


9. (U) BEGIN TEXT OF INFORMAL EMBASSY TRANSLATION OF
FEBRUARY 13 GOC STATEMENT ON IRAQ:
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GOC POSITION ON IRAQI CRISIS

CROATIA IS AN ACTIVE MEMBER OF THE ANTI-TERRORIST COALITION
AND HAS SINCE ITS CREATION SOUGHT TO CONTRIBUTE TO ITS
EFFECTIVENESS ACCORDING TO ITS OWN ABILITIES, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN OUR REGION. THROUGHOUT THE YEARS CROATIAN DIPLOMACY
HAS CONSISTENTLY AND ACTIVELY WORKED ON BANNING, CONTROLLING
AND DESTROYING WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION.

ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS CROATIA HAS CLEARLY CALLED ON IRAQ TO
COOPERATE FULLY AND UNCONDITIONALLY WITH UN INSPECTORS AND TO
COMPLY WITH ALL REQUIREMENTS FROM UN SECURITY COUNCIL
RESOLUTIONS, ESPECIALLY THOSE PERTAINING TO THE
IDENTIFICATION AND DESTRUCTION OF WEAPONS OF MASS
DESTRUCTION. CROATIA HAS ITS INSPECTORS IN THE UN TEAM AND
HAS IN THAT MANNER AND OTHERWISE SOUGHT TO CONTRIBUTE TO
PEACEFUL RESOLUTION OF THIS CRISIS.

CONSISTENT WITH THAT POLICY AND BASED ON ITS FULL SUPPORT TO
UNSC RESOLUTION 1441, CROATIA HAS JOINED IN A NUMBER OF
INTERNATIONAL INITIATIVES FOR A PEACEFUL RESOLUTION OF THE
IRAQI CRISIS. THE STATEMENT SIGNED BY THE FOREIGN MINISTERS
OF THE VILNIUS GROUP COUNTRIES CONSTITUTES A FORM OF
ADDITIONAL PRESSURE ON IRAQ TO COMPLY WITH UNSC RESOLUTIONS
REGARDING COOPERATION WITH UN INSPECTORS AND DESTRUCTION OF
THE WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, WHICH WAS CROATIA'S PRIMARY
MOTIVE WHEN JOINING THE STATEMENT IN SOLIDARITY.

AS A NATO CANDIDATE AND A COUNTRY SCHEDULED TO APPLY FOR EU
MEMBERSHIP IN THE COMING DAYS, CROATIA IS PARTICULARLY
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INTERESTED IN SEEING THE STRENGTHENING OF JOINT EU POLICIES
ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY MATTERS. THAT IS WHY CROATIA JOINED
THE FEBRUARY 4 EU PRESIDENCY DEMARCHE ON IRAQ. CROATIA
THEREFORE HOPES THAT THE UPCOMING EXTRAORDINARY MEETING OF
THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL WILL RESULT IN A MUCH-NEEDED CONSENSUS
ON WAYS TO RESOLVE THE IRAQI CRISIS. WE ARE EQUALLY
INTERESTED IN THE PRESERVATION AND SOLIDIFICATION OF THE
POLITICAL UNITY AND TOGETHERNESS OF THE EURO-ATLANTIC REGION.
STABLE RELATIONS BETWEEN THE E.U. AND THE U.S. - I.E. WITHIN
THE EURO-ATLANTIC PARTNERSHIP - IS THE BEST GUARANTEE OF
PEACE AND STABILITY FOR THE INTERNATIONAL ORDER, BUT ALSO FOR
EFFECTIVE STRUGGLE AGAINST TERRORISM. EURO-ATLANTIC DIALOGUE
IS ALSO NEEDED IN ORDER TO EXAMINE AND CONTROL ALL POSSIBLE
ASPECTS OF RESOLVING THE IRAQI CRISIS.

CITIZENS OF CROATIA HIGHLY VALUE PEACE AND PEACEFUL POLITICAL
MEANS FOR RESOLVING PROBLEMS, BECAUSE THEY KNOW VERY WELL
ABOUT THE HORRORS OF WAR AND DESTRUCTION. THAT'S WHY CROATIA
IS PARTICULARLY INTERESTED IN RESOLVING THE CRISIS WITHOUT
WAR. STANDING ON ITS PRINCIPLES OF PLEADING FOR WAR AND
STABILITY IN THE WORLD, AS WELL AS FOR THE UNDISPUTABLE ROLE
OF THE U.N., CROATIA CONTINUES TO BELIEVE THAT NOT ALL MEANS
FOR PEACEFUL RESOLUTION OF THE IRAQI CRISIS HAVE BEEN
EXHAUSTED. THE GOVERNMENT OF CROATIA WARNS THAT IT DEPENDS ON
IRAQI BEHAVIOR WHETHER THIS CRISIS WILL END IN PEACE OR WAR.
THAT IS WHY WE ARE ONCE AGAIN CALLING ON IRAQ TO FULLY AND
IMMEDIATELY COMPLY WITH U.N. SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION

1441. AT THE SAME TIME, WE EXPRESS BELIEF THAT EVERY
POSSIBLE MEANS OF RESOLVING THIS CRISIS MUST BE ASSESSED WITH
REGARD TO WHETHER IT EXPANDS OR NARROWS THE GROUNDS OF
TERRORISM. TAKING ALL THIS INTO CONSIDERATION, THE
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GOVERNMENT OF CROATIA APPEALS TO THE U.S., EU MEMBER
COUNTRIES, AND OTHER MEMBERS OF TH
E ANTI-TERRORIST COALITION TO REACH WITHIN THE U.N. SECURITY
COUNCIL THE MUCH- NEEDED CONSENSUS AND UNITY IN FUTURE
ACTIVITIES ON RESOLVING THE IRAQI CRISIS.

END TEXT.
ROSSIN

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