WITH NO POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, CROATIA'S POSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 000338 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE (NARDI),EUR/PA/PD (HORNBUCKLE) E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2013 TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAO KMDR HR IZ SUBJECT: WITH NO POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, CROATIA'S POSITION ON IRAQ SOFTENING REF: ZAGREB 326 CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR LAWRENCE ROSSIN FOR REASON 1.5 (B,D) ¶1. (C) ALTHOUGH THE GOC MADE STRONG AND POSITIVE INITIAL STATEMENTS AFTER SECRETARY POWELL'S PRESENTATION TO THE UNSC CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 00338 121756Z ON FEBRUARY 5, IT HAS DONE LITTLE SINCE THEN TO SHAPE THE PUBLIC DEBATE AND NOTHING TO DESCRIBE THE THREAT POSED BY SADDAM HUSSEIN'S WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. THE AMBASSADOR HAS GIVEN A SERIES OF ON-THE-RECORD INTERVIEWS AND THE EMBASSY HAS PRACTICALLY FORCE-FED BACKGROUND INFORMATION ON THE THREAT POSED BY IRAQ TO ALL LOCAL MEDIA. NEVERTHELESS, THE DEBATE IN ZAGREB'S POLITICAL CIRCLES IS NOW FOCUSED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY ON WHETHER OR NOT FM PICULA SHOULD HAVE SIGNED THE V-10 STATEMENT AND HOW CROATIA'S BID FOR EU MEMBERSHIP WILL BE AFFECTED BY ITS POSITION ON IRAQ. ¶2. (C) PUBLIC OPINION, IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DOMESTIC POLITICAL LEADERSHIP ON THE ISSUE, IS RUNNING STRONG AGAINST MILITARY ACTION IN IRAQ WITHOUT A NEW UNSC RESOLUTION. A FEBRUARY 10 POLL CONDUCTED BY CROATIA'S MOST RELIABLE AGENCY SHOWS THAT MORE THAN 80 PERCENT OF THE PUBLIC IS AGAINST MILITARY ACTION. AT A FEBRUARY 12 PRESS CONFERENCE, PM RACAN BACKED AWAY FROM THE V-10 STATEMENT, CALLING IT "IMPRECISE AND OPEN TO INTERPRETATION," UNDERSCORING THAT IN SIGNING THE STATEMENT, THE GOC UNDERTOOK NO NEW OBLIGATIONS TO SUPPORT USG EFFORTS AGAINST IRAQ. ¶3. (C) RACAN SEEKS TO MAKE A CLEAR DIFFERENTIATION BETWEEN CROATIA'S COMMITMENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE WAR AGAINST TERRORISM AND ANY POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION TO EFFORTS IN IRAQ. ON FEBRUARY 11, RACAN REVIEWED THE MP PLATOON WHICH WILL DEPLOY TO KABUL IN SUPPORT OF ISAF BY THE END OF FEBRUARY. AT THE FEBRUARY 12 PRESS CONFERENCE, HE REITERATED CROATIA'S SUPPORT FOR THE WAR AGAINST TERRORISM. BUT HE SAID THAT HIS GOVERNMENT HAS TAKEN NO DECISIONS ON HOW CROATIA MIGHT CONTRIBUTE TO EFFORTS IN IRAQ. RACAN SAID THAT ANY DECISION CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 00338 121756Z TO CONTRIBUTE TO MILITARY EFFORTS AGAINST IRAQ WOULD HAVE TO BE TAKEN BY THE CABINET, IN ACCORDANCE WITH CROATIA'S LAWS AND CONSTITUTION, AND THEN ONLY AFTER WEIGHING ALL ARGUMENTS, INCLUDING PUBLIC OPINION. "CROATIA ADVOCATES A PEACEFUL RESOLUTION," SAID RACAN, AND ADDED THAT THE "POSITION OF THE CROATIAN PUBLIC IS UNDERSTANDABLE," GIVEN CROATIA'S RECENT EXPERIENCE IN WAR. ¶4. (C) RACAN -- NOT A DYNAMIC LEADER AT THE BEST OF TIMES -- IS TRYING TO KEEP HIS COALITION TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO SUBMIT CROATIA'S APPLICATION TO THE EU BEFORE LIMPING TO EARLY ELECTIONS (REFTEL). WE WILL CONTINUE TO URGE CROATIAN GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS -- AND THE LOCAL PRESS -- TO STAY FOCUSED ON THE IMPORTANT ISSUE AT HAND: DISARMING SADDAM HUSSEIN. WITHOUT A CLEAR SIGNAL FROM THE EU OR NATO, RACAN'S GOVERNMENT WILL LIKELY STAY ON THE FENCE. ROSSIN CONFIDENTIAL >