ELECTIONS: NEW POLLS SHOW RACE CLOSER THAN EVER

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 002432 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR (KABUMOTO) E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2013 TAGS: PGOV PHUM HR SUBJECT: ELECTIONS: NEW POLLS SHOW RACE CLOSER THAN EVER CLASSIFIED BY: POLOFF A.F.GODFREY FOR REASONS 1.5 (B,D) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) SEPARATE POLLS PUBLISHED IN CROATIA'S TWO LEADING DAILY NEWSPAPERS ON NOVEMBER 17 INDICATE THAT THE RACE FOR CROATIA'S NOVEMBER 23 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION WILL BE A PHOTO FINISH. ONE PAPER GIVES THE EDGE TO A RIGHT-OF-CENTER COALITION LED BY THE NATIONALIST HDZ AND THE OTHER SUGGESTS THAT A LEFT-OF CENTER COALITION LED BY PM RACAN'S SDP IS AHEAD BY A NOSE. BOTH POLLS SHOW THAT THE FATE OF SMALLER PARTIES WITHIN THE TWO GROUPINGS IS CHANGING. THE MOST DRAMATIC CHANGE IS THE GAIN BY THE EXTREME RIGHT-WING HSP. WHILE THIS TREND IS NOTEWORTHY, IT PROBABLY DOES NOT REPRESENT A NATIONALIST SHIFT IN THE CROATIAN ELECTORATE, BUT THE DESERTION OF SOME OF THE HDZ'S MOST EXTREME SUPPORTERS TO THE HSP. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) WITH LESS THAN A WEEK TO GO BEFORE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, CROATIA'S SENSATIONALIST PRESS IS FULL OF POLLING DATA, SOME OF WHICH HAS LITTLE MEANING. ON NOVEMBER 17, ZAGREB'S TWO LARGEST-CIRCULATION DAILIES PUBLISHED POLLS WHICH SUGGEST THIS ELECTION WILL BE THE CLOSEST IN CROATIAN HISTORY. VECERNJI LIST COMMISSIONED A POLL THAT WAS CONDUCTED BY TELEPHONE FROM BETWEEN NOVEMBER 10-15 WITH 1800 RESPONDENTS ACROSS CROATIA. ONLY TWO-THIRDS OF THOSE POLLED SAID THEY INTENDED TO VOTE, AND ANOTHER SIX PERCENT SAID THEY HAD NOT YET MADE UP THEIR MIND IF THEY WOULD CAST THEIR BALLOTS. THE POLL SHOWED THAT THE RIGHT-OF-CENTER BLOC LED BY THE CROATIAN DEMOCRATIC UNION (HDZ) WOULD WIN 71 SEATS, INCLUDING THE PROJECTED 5 OR 6 REPRESENTATIVES OR CITIZENS LIVING ABROAD. THE LEFT-OF-CENTER GROUPING SEEN AS LIKELY BY VECERNJI LIST ANALYSTS, LED BY RACAN'S SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY (SDP) BUT INCLUDING THE MORE CONSERVATIVE PEASANT PARTY (HSS),WOULD WIN 69 SEATS, INCLUDING THE 8 MINORITY VOTES THAT ARE LIKELY, BUT NOT CERTAIN TO BACK THIS MORE PROGRESSIVE OPTION. ¶3. (C) WHILE THE TWO BIGGEST PARTIES -- THE HDZ AND THE SDP -- ARE HOLDING STEADY, THE HSS SEEMS TO BE LOSING GROUND; POLLS SUGGEST IT COULD WIN AS FEW AS EIGHT SEATS. THE CENTER-RIGHT COALITION OF DEMOCRATIC CENTER (DC) AND THE CROATIAN SOCIAL LIBERAL PARTY (HSLS) -- A LIKELY PARTNER IN A GOVERNMENT LED BY THE HDZ -- IS LOSING GROUND AS WELL. THE MORE LIBERAL CROATIAN PEOPLE'S PARTY (HNS),WHICH IS RUNNING IN COALITION WITH SMALLER REGIONAL PARTIES, COULD BE POISED TO SURPASS THE HSS TO BECOME THE THIRD STRONGEST POLITICAL PARTY IN THE NEXT PARLIAMENT WITH 15 SEATS. NEW HDZ WING OF AN HDZ COALITION? -------------- ¶4. (C) BOTH POLLS SUGGESTED THAT THE EXTREME-RIGHT CROATIAN PARTY OF RIGHTS (HSP) WILL PERFORM FAR BETTER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. FOR SOME VOTERS, THE CHOICE BETWEEN THE HDZ AND SDP IS NOT DISTINCT ENOUGH. ON BOTH THE LEFT AND RIGHT, MOST OF THE CANDIDATES FOR SEATS IN CROATIA'S NEXT PARLIAMENT ARE RUNNING CONVENTIONAL RACES, RELYING ON THE ADVICE OF MODERN MEDIA CONSULTANTS. ON POLICY ISSUES, MOST CANDIDATES ARE TRYING TO STAKE OUT THE CENTER GROUND, SHOWING THEIR QUALIFICATIONS TO LEAD CROATIA TOWARD EURO-ATLANTIC INSTITUTIONS WHILE GROWING THE ECONOMY. NOT SO THE HSP. WHILE IN THE LAST FEW MONTHS THE HSP FINALLY PROHIBITED THE DISPLAY OF WWII-ERA FASCIST SYMBOLS, IT RETAINS ITS EXTREME NATIONALIST CHARACTER. ¶5. (C) EMBLEMATIC OF THE HSP CAMPAIGN WAS THE STUNT PULLED BY LEADING ZAGREB HSP CANDIDATE SLAVEN LETICA. TO KICK OFF HIS CAMPAIGN, HE RENTED A COSTUME OF THE 19TH CENTURY CROATIAN VICEROY (AND WAR HERO) BAN JELACIC AND RODE ON HORSEBACK TO SVETA GERA, DISPUTED TERRITORY ON CROATIA'S NORTHERN BORDER HELD BY SLOVENIA AND ASKED THE BORDER GUARDS TO LEAVE CROATIA. ODDLY, THE MEMBER OF THE LAST SABOR VOTED AS "BEST PARLIAMENTARIAN" BY CROATIA'S JOURNALISTS WAS HSP MEMBER TONCI TADIC. WHILE JOURNALISTS RARELY AGREED WITH HIS VIEWS, THEY ALL RESPECTED HIS PROFESSIONALISM AND THOROUGH PREPARATION FOR FLOOR DEBATES. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) AS THE HDZ'S RHETORIC -- IF NOT ITS ACTIONS -- MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTER, ITS MORE RIGHT-WING ELEMENTS ARE FINDING A NEW HOME IN THE HSP. THE HDZ IS NOT LOSING GROUND, HOWEVER, AND SEEMS TO BE ATTRACTING SUPPORTERS FROM SMALLER CONSERVATIVE PARTIES (LIKE THE HSS AND THE HSLS/DC) CLOSER TO WHAT PASSES FOR THE CENTER IN CROATIA. THE INCREASE OF SUPPORT FOR THE HSP IS WORRISOME, BUT PROBABLY DOES NOT REPRESENT A NEW RISE IN EXTREME NATIONALISM IN CROATIA. FRANK NNNN