ELECTIONS: "OFFICIAL" CAMPAIGN BEGINS - BLEAK

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 002381

SIPDIS


EUR/SCE FOR KABUMOTO
USOSCE FOR HELWIG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2013
TAGS: PGOV PHUM HR
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS: "OFFICIAL" CAMPAIGN BEGINS - BLEAK
FORECASTS FOR RACAN COALITION


Classified By: POLOFF A.F.Godfrey for reasons 1.5 (b,d)

Summary
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1. (C) On November 6, Croatia's State Electoral Commission
published the approved lists of candidates for the November
23 parliamentary election. This act serves as the official
starting gun for the formal campaign, which means rules
governing equal access to state media now apply. Polls
suggest that the parties which made up the Racan government
are in trouble. While the election will be very close, a
coalition led by the right-wing HDZ may win enough seats to
form a government. End Summary.

Five Thousand Candidates for 160 Seats
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2. (C) Political parties and independent candidates had until
midnight of November 3 to submit lists of candidates to
Croatia's State Electoral Commission (SEC) in order to
participate in upcoming elections. After a 48-hour review
period, the SEC released the names of more than 5,000
candidates who will compete for seats in Croatia's next
parliament. Each list for the ten geographical electoral
districts and the one "diaspora" list contained fourteen
names. While it is relatively easy to have a list approved
by the SEC (in the central Zagreb district, voters will be
confronted with 40 different lists),a list must receive at
least five percent of the vote to qualify to divide the 14
seats in an electoral district.

SDP Helping Friends in Need
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3. (C) The candidate lists reflect last-minute coalitions
between the coalition-leading Social Democratic Party (SDP)
and two smaller parties which had been faithful members of PM
Racan's reform government. Racan (as president of the SDP)
ceded spots high on his party's list to members of the
Liberal Party (LS) and the Libra party. Igor Dragovan,
Secretary General of the SDP, told us his party expected

SIPDIS
little return in terms of votes, but was taking the step in
order to ensure that a "liberal option" was preserved as a
parliamentary party in the next Sabor.

HDZ Candidates Include Nationalist Dinosaurs...
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4. (C) Croatia's two largest parties, the SDP and the
right-wing nationalist HDZ followed through on pledges to
shake up their parliamentary delegations. Less than half of
the MP's in their current parliamentary caucuses made the
lists for this election. HDZ President Sanader told the
Ambassador the makeup of their list would demonstrate that
the HDZ has become a modern, democratic party. But in fact,
while there are many new names, the HDZ has placed high on
their lists individuals who epitomize the worst stereotypes
of the Tudjman era abuses, including a suspected war criminal
(Branimir Glavas),an active opponent of refugee return
(Zadar Governor Sime Prtenjaca) and a kleptocrat (HDZ caucus
whip Vladimir Seks).

SDP Turns to WWF for Name Recognition
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5. (C) SDP leaders told us they planned to get rid of MP's
who made insufficient substantive contributions to the work
of the last parliament and to professionalize their caucus.
But they placed Mirko Filipovic, a champion of the brutal
sport called "ultimate fight" most popular in Japan (where he
is known by the nom de guerre "Cro-Cop"),high on their list
for the Zagreb city district. Filipovic, who has no
background in politics, may add name recognition to the SDP,
but he will surely alienate the urban, educated voters which
make up the core of the SDP.

Polls Show HDZ Could Form Government
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6. (C) Because of differences in polling techniques (and
levels of professionalism),opinion poll results in the
Croatian press can vary by as much as 20 percent. However,
all show that the HDZ is holding its commanding lead as the
largest individual party. We met on November 7 with the
directors of Croatia's most reliable polling firm. They said
that the HDZ continues to poll at 28 percent, with the SDP
and its election partners trailing far behind at 19 percent.
The HSS will continue to play the role of "kingmaker" and is
polling at a solid 11 percent. HNS is slipping, and now
barely polls at eight percent.


7. (C) The percentage of voters who say they intend to vote
but are still undecided is now only 12 percent; this figure
continues to shrink as the date for elections approaches.
IRI pollsters told us that a low turnout would favor the HDZ;
with turnout now predicted at only 65 percent, the SDP and
its partners need to work harder to get out the vote. As it
stands now, if the other right-wing parties which would be
likely coalition partners for the HDZ (including the extreme
nationalist Croatian Party of Rights - HSP) continue to hold
their ground, the HDZ could win enough seats in parliament to
form a coalition government with a slim majority.

Coalition Parties Holding on to Hope
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8. (C) The parties which formed the Racan government have
not given up hope. HNS Secretary General Boris Blazejkovic
told us that his party's polling numbers are infuriatingly
variable, since they rely on the urban youth vote which is
least likely to turn out for elections. SDP leaders admit
that this will be a tight race, but express confidence that
Croatian voters will remember the dreadful state of the
country's economy when the SDP-led government took office
three years ago.

Electoral Process Efficient, Transparent
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9. (C) Despite the closeness of the race, all of its
contestants seem to be playing by the rules. All of the
election deadlines have been met, and OSCE's long-term
observers are being granted access to all levels of the
process. Croatia's SEC allows NGO monitors to attend all of
its sessions and publishes all decisions immediately on a
modern website. The Croatian Helsinki Commission (tasked by
OSCE to conduct media monitoring) reported to the press on
November 5 that the campaign has been portrayed by the media
in a "fair and balanced" manner.
FRANK


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