CROATIA'S PARLIAMENT DISSOLVES - WHAT NEXT?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ZAGREB 002259 SIPDIS EUR/SCE FOR KABUMOTO E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2013 TAGS: PGOV PHUM HR SUBJECT: CROATIA'S PARLIAMENT DISSOLVES - WHAT NEXT? ELECTION PRIMER CHAPTER III REF: A. ZAGREB 2132 ¶B. ZAGREB 2217 CLASSIFIED BY: POLOFF A.F.GODFREY FOR REASONS 1.5 (B,D) ¶1. SUMMARY: THE CROATIAN PARLIAMENT DISSOLVED ON OCTOBER 17, THE FIRST FORMAL STEP IN A SERIES OF EVENTS WHICH WILL LEAD TO ELECTIONS ON NOVEMBER 23. PRESIDENT MESIC TOOK THE SECOND STEP ON OCTOBER 20, WHEN HE FORMALLY SET THE DATE FOR PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. CROATIA'S ELECTORAL LAW REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED SINCE THE LAST PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION IN JANUARY 2000, DESPITE OSCE CALLS FOR AN OVERHAUL. NONETHELESS, THE CONSENSUS OF ALL POLITICAL OBSERVERS AND INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS REPRESENTED IN CROATIA IS THAT THE NOVEMBER 23 POLL WILL BE GENERALLY FREE AND FAIR. THIS ASSESSMENT TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE SHORTCOMINGS OF THE LAW BUT ALSO A POLITICAL CULTURE WHICH OSCE ASSERTS HAS "IRREVOCABLY CHANGED FOR THE BETTER." THIS TELEGRAM, TOGETHER WITH DESCRIPTIONS OF LEADING POLITICAL FIGURES AND OF CROATIA'S POLITICAL PARTIES (REFS) IS INTENDED TO SERVE AS A REFERENCE FOR THOSE FOLLOWING CROATIA'S ELECTION. END SUMMARY. CROATIA'S FIRST REFORM SABOR DISSOLVES -------------- ¶2. AFTER A FRENZY OF PASSING LAST-MINUTE LEGISLATION FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FORMAL SPEECHES OF FOND RECOLLECTION AND EVEN RECONCILIATION, CROATIA'S PARLIAMENT (SABOR) DISSOLVED ITSELF ON THE AFTERNOON OF OCTOBER 17, 2003. THE MOVE TOOK PLACE ACCORDING TO AN AGREEMENT MADE PUBLIC BY COALITION LEADERS WELL IN ADVANCE. CROATIA'S CONSTITUTION REQUIRES THE PRESIDENT TO SET AN ELECTION DATE NOT MORE THAN 60, BUT NOT LESS THAN 30 DAYS FROM THE DATE OF THE SABOR'S DISSOLUTION. ON OCTOBER 20, PRESIDENT MESIC CARRIED OUT THIS DUTY AND ANNOUNCED THAT THE ELECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ON NOVEMBER 23, AS EXPECTED. FROM THE MOMENT SPEAKER ZLATKO TOMCIC GAVELED THE SABOR CLOSED ON NOVEMBER 17 UNTIL THE NEXT PARLIAMENT TAKES POWER, ALL OF THE AUTHORITY OF THE SABOR IS VESTED IN PM RACAN'S CABINET. FEW OBSERVERS, HOWEVER, EXPECT THE LAME-DUCK GOVERNMENT TO MISUSE THIS AUTHORITY. ELECTION SCHEDULE NOW FIXED -------------- ¶3. (U) NOW THAT PRESIDENT MESIC HAS OFFICIALLY FIRED THE STARTING GUN, THE REST OF CROATIA'S ELECTORAL SCHEDULE IS SET. POLITICAL PARTIES (AND INDEPENDENT POLITICAL GROUPS) HAVE FOURTEEN DAYS TO SUBMIT THEIR LISTS OF CANDIDATES TO THE STATE ELECTORAL COMMISSION (SEC). THE SEC THEN HAS 48 HOURS TO REVIEW THE LISTS, AND ONCE THEY ARE CERTIFIED, THE FORMAL CAMPAIGN BEGINS. THE "OFFICIAL" CAMPAIGN WILL THEREFORE BEGIN ON NOVEMBER 5 AND WILL LAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT ON NOVEMBER 21, WHEN "ELECTION SILENCE" RULES GO INTO EFFECT. FEW CHANGES TO CROATIA'S ELECTION LAW ... -------------- ¶4. (C) CROATIA'S ELECTORAL LAW WAS CRITICIZED BY THE OSCE'S OFFICE FOR DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS AND HUMAN RIGHTS (ODIHR) AFTER THE JANUARY 2000 POLL. ODIHR THEN MADE SPECIFIC SUGGESTIONS ON HOW THE LEGISLATION COULD BE CHANGED TO ENSURE A MORE PROFESSIONAL AND DEMOCRATIC CONDUCT OF ELECTIONS. DESPITE THE BEST INTENTIONS OF SOME OF THE SABOR'S LEADING CONSTITUTIONAL EXPERTS, THE LAW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. WHEN CROATIA'S POLITICAL THEORISTS GAVE UP THE TASK OF ELECTION LAW OVERHAUL IN EARLY 2003, POLITICAL REALISTS TOOK OVER; TWO CHANGES -- ONE COSMETIC AND ONE SIGNIFICANT -- TO THE EXISTING LAW WERE PASSED. THESE MODIFICATIONS TOOK CHANGES TO THE STRUCTURE OF CROATIA'S LEGISLATIVE BRANCH INTO ACCOUNT (THE PARLIAMENT'S IRRELEVANT UPPER HOUSE WAS ABOLISHED IN 2001) AND -- MORE IMPORTANTLY -- WHEN THE NEW CONSTITUTIONAL LAW ON NATIONAL MINORITIES WAS PASSED, INCREASING THE NUMBER OF GUARANTEED SEATS TO REPRESENTATIVES OF CROATIA'S MANY ETHNIC MINORITY WAS INCREASED FROM THREE TO EIGHT. ... BUT "FREE AND FAIR" POLL EXPECTED -------------- ¶5. (C) DESPITE THE GOC'S FAILURE TO CHANGE THE ELECTION LAW, ODIHR EXPERTS HAVE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION WHAT THEY TERMED A "SEA CHANGE" IN THE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT IN CROATIA. AN ODIHR EXPERT TEAM WHICH VISITED ZAGREB FROM SEPTEMBER 16 - 19 CITED CONFIDENCE IN THE POLITICAL PROCESS BY ALL RELEVANT OBSERVERS AND RECOMMENDED THAT NO SHORT-TERM OBSERVERS BE DEPLOYED TO CROATIA TO OBSERVE THE POLL ON ELECTION DAY. "AD HOC" STATE ELECTORAL COMMISSION -------------- ¶6. (SBU) CROATIA LACKS A PERMANENT STATE ELECTORAL COMMISSION, A FAILING WHICH ODIHR CRITICIZED IN 2000 AND ZAGREB 00002259 001.2 OF 003 A.F.GODFREY FOR REASONS 1.5 (B,D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: THE CROATIAN PARLIAMENT DISSOLVED ON OCTOBER 17, THE FIRST FORMAL STEP IN A SERIES OF EVENTS WHICH WILL LEAD TO ELECTIONS ON NOVEMBER 23. PRESIDENT MESIC TOOK THE SECOND STEP ON OCTOBER 20, WHEN HE FORMALLY SET THE DATE FOR PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. CROATIA'S ELECTORAL LAW REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED SINCE THE LAST PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION IN JANUARY 2000, DESPITE OSCE CALLS FOR AN OVERHAUL. NONETHELESS, THE CONSENSUS OF ALL POLITICAL OBSERVERS AND INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS REPRESENTED IN CROATIA IS THAT THE NOVEMBER 23 POLL WILL BE GENERALLY FREE AND FAIR. THIS ASSESSMENT TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE SHORTCOMINGS OF THE LAW BUT ALSO A POLITICAL CULTURE WHICH OSCE ASSERTS HAS "IRREVOCABLY CHANGED FOR THE BETTER." THIS TELEGRAM, TOGETHER WITH DESCRIPTIONS OF LEADING POLITICAL FIGURES AND OF CROATIA'S POLITICAL PARTIES (REFS) IS INTENDED TO SERVE AS A REFERENCE FOR THOSE FOLLOWING CROATIA'S ELECTION. END SUMMARY. CROATIA'S FIRST REFORM SABOR DISSOLVES -------------- ¶2. (C) AFTER A FRENZY OF PASSING LAST-MINUTE LEGISLATION FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FORMAL SPEECHES OF FOND RECOLLECTION AND EVEN RECONCILIATION, CROATIA'S PARLIAMENT (SABOR) DISSOLVED ITSELF ON THE AFTERNOON OF OCTOBER 17, 2003. THE MOVE TOOK PLACE ACCORDING TO AN AGREEMENT MADE PUBLIC BY COALITION LEADERS WELL IN ADVANCE. CROATIA'S CONSTITUTION REQUIRES THE PRESIDENT TO SET AN ELECTION DATE NOT MORE THAN 60, BUT NOT LESS THAN 30 DAYS FROM THE DATE OF THE SABOR'S DISSOLUTION. ON OCTOBER 20, PRESIDENT MESIC CARRIED OUT THIS DUTY AND ANNOUNCED THAT THE ELECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ON NOVEMBER 23, AS EXPECTED. FROM THE MOMENT SPEAKER ZLATKO TOMCIC GAVELED THE SABOR CLOSED ON NOVEMBER 17 UNTIL THE NEXT PARLIAMENT TAKES POWER, ALL OF THE AUTHORITY OF THE SABOR IS VESTED IN PM RACAN'S CABINET. FEW OBSERVERS, HOWEVER, EXPECT THE LAME-DUCK GOVERNMENT TO MISUSE THIS AUTHORITY. ELECTION SCHEDULE NOW FIXED -------------- ¶3. (U) NOW THAT PRESIDENT MESIC HAS OFFICIALLY FIRED THE STARTING GUN, THE REST OF CROATIA'S ELECTORAL SCHEDULE IS SET. POLITICAL PARTIES (AND INDEPENDENT POLITICAL GROUPS) HAVE FOURTEEN DAYS TO SUBMIT THEIR LISTS OF CANDIDATES TO THE STATE ELECTORAL COMMISSION (SEC). THE SEC THEN HAS 48 HOURS TO REVIEW THE LISTS, AND ONCE THEY ARE CERTIFIED, THE FORMAL CAMPAIGN BEGINS. THE "OFFICIAL" CAMPAIGN WILL THEREFORE BEGIN ON NOVEMBER 5 AND WILL LAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT ON NOVEMBER 21, WHEN "ELECTION SILENCE" RULES GO INTO EFFECT. FEW CHANGES TO CROATIA'S ELECTION LAW ... -------------- ¶4. (C) CROATIA'S ELECTORAL LAW WAS CRITICIZED BY THE OSCE'S OFFICE FOR DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS AND HUMAN RIGHTS (ODIHR) AFTER THE JANUARY 2000 POLL. ODIHR THEN MADE SPECIFIC SUGGESTIONS ON HOW THE LEGISLATION COULD BE CHANGED TO ENSURE A MORE PROFESSIONAL AND DEMOCRATIC CONDUCT OF ELECTIONS. DESPITE THE BEST INTENTIONS OF SOME OF THE SABOR'S LEADING CONSTITUTIONAL EXPERTS, THE LAW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. WHEN CROATIA'S POLITICAL THEORISTS GAVE UP THE TASK OF ELECTION LAW OVERHAUL IN EARLY 2003, POLITICAL REALISTS TOOK OVER; TWO CHANGES -- ONE COSMETIC AND ONE SIGNIFICANT -- TO THE EXISTING LAW WERE PASSED. THESE MODIFICATIONS TOOK CHANGES TO THE STRUCTURE OF CROATIA'S LEGISLATIVE BRANCH INTO ACCOUNT (THE PARLIAMENT'S IRRELEVANT UPPER HOUSE WAS ABOLISHED IN 2001) AND -- MORE IMPORTANTLY -- WHEN THE NEW CONSTITUTIONAL LAW ON NATIONAL MINORITIES WAS PASSED, INCREASING THE NUMBER OF GUARANTEED SEATS TO REPRESENTATIVES OF CROATIA'S MANY ETHNIC MINORITY WAS INCREASED FROM THREE TO EIGHT. ... BUT "FREE AND FAIR" POLL EXPECTED -------------- ¶5. (C) DESPITE THE GOC'S FAILURE TO CHANGE THE ELECTION LAW, ODIHR EXPERTS HAVE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION WHAT THEY TERMED A "SEA CHANGE" IN THE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT IN CROATIA. AN ODIHR EXPERT TEAM WHICH VISITED ZAGREB FROM SEPTEMBER 16 - 19 CITED CONFIDENCE IN THE POLITICAL PROCESS BY ALL RELEVANT OBSERVERS AND RECOMMENDED THAT NO SHORT-TERM OBSERVERS BE DEPLOYED TO CROATIA TO OBSERVE THE POLL ON ELECTION DAY. "AD HOC" STATE ELECTORAL COMMISSION -------------- ¶6. (SBU) CROATIA LACKS A PERMANENT STATE ELECTORAL COMMISSION, A FAILING WHICH ODIHR CRITICIZED IN 2000 AND ZAGREB 00002259 002.1 OF 003 TANDS UP" FOR EACH ELECTION. CHAIRED BY THE PRESIDENT OF CROATIA'S SUPREME COURT, THE ELEVEN-MEMBER SEC IS MADE UP OF LEADING NON-PARTISAN JURISTS. FOUR WILL BE NAMED TO THE SEC BY THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT, THE OTHER SIX ARE NAMED BY THE GOVERNMENT AND OPPOSITION PARTIES. DESPITE ITS AD HOC NATURE, THE MEMBERSHIP OF THE SEC IS STABLE. ¶7. (SBU) UNTIL IT CERTIFIES THE RESULTS OF THE NOVEMBER 23 ELECTION, THE SEC HAS NEARLY ABSOLUTE AUTHORITY IN CONDUCTING THE POLL, SETTING RULES AND APPOINTING LOWER-LEVEL ELECTION OFFICIALS. ONE OF THE SEC'S FIRST TASKS WILL BE TO PUBLISH THE "MANDATORY INSTRUCTIONS" FOR THE ELECTION. THE SEC MUST ALSO APPOINT DISTRICT ELECTORAL COMMISSIONS WHICH IN TURN NAME THE ELECTORAL BOARD MEMBERS FOR EACH POLLING PLACE. THE SEC DIRECTLY APPOINTS ELECTORAL BOARD MEMBERS FOR POLLING PLACES OUTSIDE OF CROATIA. CONSTITUTIONAL COURT HAS THE LAST WORD -------------- ¶8. (SBU) AN ETHICS COMMISSION APPOINTED BY CROATIA'S CONSTITUTIONAL COURT (FROM NOMINEES OF GOVERNMENT AND OPPOSITION PARTIES) OVERSEES THE CAMPAIGN AND THE ELECTION PROCESS. THE PRESIDENT OF THE CROATIAN ACADEMY OF ARTS AND SCIENCES CHAIRS THE COMMISSION AS A SEVENTH MEMBER. THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT SERVES AS THE FINAL ARBITER FOR APPEALS OF DECISIONS MADE BY ELECTORAL COMMISSIONS. TEN GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRICTS, 14 SEATS EACH, PLUS ... -------------- -------------- ¶9. (SBU) THE NUMBER OF MP'S IN THE CROATIAN SABOR IS NOT FIXED; THE CONSTITUTION REQUIRES THE SABOR MUST HAVE FROM 100 TO 160 REPRESENTATIVES. CROATIA IS DIVIDED INTO TEN ELECTORAL DISTRICTS OF APPROXIMATE EQUAL POPULATION SIZE. EACH DISTRICT ELECTS 14 MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT. SEATS ARE AWARDED TO PARTIES OR INDEPENDENT LISTS OF CANDIDATES WHICH BREAK THE FIVE-PERCENT MINIMUM VOTE THRESHOLD IN THEIR DISTRICT BASED ON THE D'HONDT METHOD. (POLITICAL JUNKIES SEEKING A DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THIS METHOD MAY CHOOSE TO GO TO WWW.IFES.ORG.) "DIASPORA" VOTE WILL BE CONTROVERSIAL -------------- ¶10. (C) ALL CROATIAN CITIZENS OUTSIDE OF CROATIA HAVE THE RIGHT TO VOTE IN A SEPARATE DISTRICT, BUT THE NUMBER OF MP'S ELECTED FROM THE 11TH OR "DIASPORA" DISTRICT IS NOT FIXED. TO DETERMINE THE NUMBER OF DIASPORA MP'S, THE SEC DIVIDES THE TOTAL NUMBER OF VOTES CAST ABROAD BY THE AVERAGE NUMBER NEEDED TO WIN A MANDATE INSIDE OF CROATIA. THE MOST RECENT SABOR HAD SIX DIASPORA MP'S -- ALL HDZ -- WHO WON THEIR SEATS BASED ON A MASSIVE TURNOUT OF RIGHT-WING BOSNIAN CROAT VOTERS. CHANGES IN REGULATIONS -- APPROVED BY THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT -- STIPULATE THAT VOTING ABROAD CAN ONLY TAKE PLACE IN CROATIA'S DIPLOMATIC AND CONSULAR MISSIONS. THIS MAY PLACE PHYSICAL LIMITS ON THE NUMBER OF BOSNIAN CROATS ABLE TO VOTE SINCE THERE WILL BE ONLY FOUR POLLING PLACES IN BIH (THE CROATIAN EMBASSY IN SARAJEVO AND CONSULATES GENERAL IN MOSTAR, TUZLA AND BANJA LUKA). IN THE JANUARY 2000 ELECTION THERE WERE MORE POLLING PLACES IN BIH; THE HDZ GOVERNMENT BENT EVERY RULE TO ENSURE EVERY BOSNIAN CROAT HAD A CHANCE TO VOTE. ¶11. (C) ODIHR EXPERTS HAVE SIGNALED THAT THEY WILL WATCH DIASPORA VOTING CLOSELY. THEY WILL LIKELY CRITICIZE ANY GOC EFFORTS TO USE ADMINISTRATIVE MEASURES (LIKE LIMITING THE NUMBER OF POLLING PLACES) WHICH WOULD RESTRICT THE RIGHT OF CROATIANS ABROAD TO EXERCISE THEIR CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHT TO VOTE. GOC LEADERS HAVE REJECTED THIS CRITICISM; THEY POINT TO A PROVISION IN THE ELECTORAL LAW WHICH ALLOWS POLLING PLACES OUTSIDE OF CROATIA TO REMAIN OPEN FOR TWO DAYS AS SUFFICIENT TIME FOR ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN BIH TO GET TO THE POLLS. GREATER GUARANTEED MINORITY REPRESENTATION -------------- ¶12. (SBU) RESPONDING TO INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE TO ASSURE CROATIA'S MINORITIES WERE GIVEN A GREATER VOICE IN PARLIAMENT, THE RACAN GOVERNMENT PASSED THE LANDMARK CONSTITUTIONAL LAW ON NATIONAL MINORITIES (CLNM) IN DECEMBER ¶2002. THIS LAW, WIDELY PRAISED BY THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, INCREASED THE NUMBER OF SEATS RESERVED FOR CROATIA'S ETHNIC MINORITIES FROM FIVE TO EIGHT; THE SERB MINORITY WILL BE GUARANTEED THREE SEATS. MINORITY VOTERS MUST CHOOSE WHETHER TO VOTE AS MINORITIES OR AS RESIDENTS IN ONE OF THE TEN GEOGRAPHICAL ELECTORAL DISTRICTS. MINORITY REPRESENTATIVES OBJECTED TO BEING FORCED TO CHOOSE BETWEEN THE MINORITY OR "REGULAR" LISTS AND APPEALED TO THE ZAGREB 00002259 002.2 OF 003 TANDS UP" FOR EACH ELECTION. CHAIRED BY THE PRESIDENT OF CROATIA'S SUPREME COURT, THE ELEVEN-MEMBER SEC IS MADE UP OF LEADING NON-PARTISAN JURISTS. FOUR WILL BE NAMED TO THE SEC BY THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT, THE OTHER SIX ARE NAMED BY THE GOVERNMENT AND OPPOSITION PARTIES. DESPITE ITS AD HOC NATURE, THE MEMBERSHIP OF THE SEC IS STABLE. ¶7. (SBU) UNTIL IT CERTIFIES THE RESULTS OF THE NOVEMBER 23 ELECTION, THE SEC HAS NEARLY ABSOLUTE AUTHORITY IN CONDUCTING THE POLL, SETTING RULES AND APPOINTING LOWER-LEVEL ELECTION OFFICIALS. ONE OF THE SEC'S FIRST TASKS WILL BE TO PUBLISH THE "MANDATORY INSTRUCTIONS" FOR THE ELECTION. THE SEC MUST ALSO APPOINT DISTRICT ELECTORAL COMMISSIONS WHICH IN TURN NAME THE ELECTORAL BOARD MEMBERS FOR EACH POLLING PLACE. THE SEC DIRECTLY APPOINTS ELECTORAL BOARD MEMBERS FOR POLLING PLACES OUTSIDE OF CROATIA. CONSTITUTIONAL COURT HAS THE LAST WORD -------------- ¶8. (SBU) AN ETHICS COMMISSION APPOINTED BY CROATIA'S CONSTITUTIONAL COURT (FROM NOMINEES OF GOVERNMENT AND OPPOSITION PARTIES) OVERSEES THE CAMPAIGN AND THE ELECTION PROCESS. THE PRESIDENT OF THE CROATIAN ACADEMY OF ARTS AND SCIENCES CHAIRS THE COMMISSION AS A SEVENTH MEMBER. THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT SERVES AS THE FINAL ARBITER FOR APPEALS OF DECISIONS MADE BY ELECTORAL COMMISSIONS. TEN GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRICTS, 14 SEATS EACH, PLUS ... -------------- -------------- ¶9. (SBU) THE NUMBER OF MP'S IN THE CROATIAN SABOR IS NOT FIXED; THE CONSTITUTION REQUIRES THE SABOR MUST HAVE FROM 100 TO 160 REPRESENTATIVES. CROATIA IS DIVIDED INTO TEN ELECTORAL DISTRICTS OF APPROXIMATE EQUAL POPULATION SIZE. EACH DISTRICT ELECTS 14 MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT. SEATS ARE AWARDED TO PARTIES OR INDEPENDENT LISTS OF CANDIDATES WHICH BREAK THE FIVE-PERCENT MINIMUM VOTE THRESHOLD IN THEIR DISTRICT BASED ON THE D'HONDT METHOD. (POLITICAL JUNKIES SEEKING A DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THIS METHOD MAY CHOOSE TO GO TO WWW.IFES.ORG.) "DIASPORA" VOTE WILL BE CONTROVERSIAL -------------- ¶10. (C) ALL CROATIAN CITIZENS OUTSIDE OF CROATIA HAVE THE RIGHT TO VOTE IN A SEPARATE DISTRICT, BUT THE NUMBER OF MP'S ELECTED FROM THE 11TH OR "DIASPORA" DISTRICT IS NOT FIXED. TO DETERMINE THE NUMBER OF DIASPORA MP'S, THE SEC DIVIDES THE TOTAL NUMBER OF VOTES CAST ABROAD BY THE AVERAGE NUMBER NEEDED TO WIN A MANDATE INSIDE OF CROATIA. THE MOST RECENT SABOR HAD SIX DIASPORA MP'S -- ALL HDZ -- WHO WON THEIR SEATS BASED ON A MASSIVE TURNOUT OF RIGHT-WING BOSNIAN CROAT VOTERS. CHANGES IN REGULATIONS -- APPROVED BY THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT -- STIPULATE THAT VOTING ABROAD CAN ONLY TAKE PLACE IN CROATIA'S DIPLOMATIC AND CONSULAR MISSIONS. THIS MAY PLACE PHYSICAL LIMITS ON THE NUMBER OF BOSNIAN CROATS ABLE TO VOTE SINCE THERE WILL BE ONLY FOUR POLLING PLACES IN BIH (THE CROATIAN EMBASSY IN SARAJEVO AND CONSULATES GENERAL IN MOSTAR, TUZLA AND BANJA LUKA). IN THE JANUARY 2000 ELECTION THERE WERE MORE POLLING PLACES IN BIH; THE HDZ GOVERNMENT BENT EVERY RULE TO ENSURE EVERY BOSNIAN CROAT HAD A CHANCE TO VOTE. ¶11. (C) ODIHR EXPERTS HAVE SIGNALED THAT THEY WILL WATCH DIASPORA VOTING CLOSELY. THEY WILL LIKELY CRITICIZE ANY GOC EFFORTS TO USE ADMINISTRATIVE MEASURES (LIKE LIMITING THE NUMBER OF POLLING PLACES) WHICH WOULD RESTRICT THE RIGHT OF CROATIANS ABROAD TO EXERCISE THEIR CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHT TO VOTE. GOC LEADERS HAVE REJECTED THIS CRITICISM; THEY POINT TO A PROVISION IN THE ELECTORAL LAW WHICH ALLOWS POLLING PLACES OUTSIDE OF CROATIA TO REMAIN OPEN FOR TWO DAYS AS SUFFICIENT TIME FOR ELIGIBLE VOTERS IN BIH TO GET TO THE POLLS. GREATER GUARANTEED MINORITY REPRESENTATION -------------- ¶12. (SBU) RESPONDING TO INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE TO ASSURE CROATIA'S MINORITIES WERE GIVEN A GREATER VOICE IN PARLIAMENT, THE RACAN GOVERNMENT PASSED THE LANDMARK CONSTITUTIONAL LAW ON NATIONAL MINORITIES (CLNM) IN DECEMBER ¶2002. THIS LAW, WIDELY PRAISED BY THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, INCREASED THE NUMBER OF SEATS RESERVED FOR CROATIA'S ETHNIC MINORITIES FROM FIVE TO EIGHT; THE SERB MINORITY WILL BE GUARANTEED THREE SEATS. MINORITY VOTERS MUST CHOOSE WHETHER TO VOTE AS MINORITIES OR AS RESIDENTS IN ONE OF THE TEN GEOGRAPHICAL ELECTORAL DISTRICTS. MINORITY REPRESENTATIVES OBJECTED TO BEING FORCED TO CHOOSE BETWEEN THE MINORITY OR "REGULAR" LISTS AND APPEALED TO THE FOR MERGING. ORIG BY 38 ZAGREB 00002259 003.1 OF 003 T LIMITED TO RUNNING ON MINORITY SLATES AND IN FACT ETHNIC MINORITY POLITICIANS PLAY LEADERSHIP ROLES IN A FEW OF CROATIA'S MORE PROGRESSIVE POLITICAL PARTIES. TRANSPARENCY IN CAMPAIGN FINANCING -------------- ¶13. (SBU) POLITICAL PARTIES MUST PUBLICIZE THEIR APPROXIMATE CAMPAIGN BUDGET AND THE SOURCE OF CONTRIBUTIONS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE "OFFICIAL" CAMPAIGN ON NOVEMBER 5. CAMPAIGNING EXPENSES OF PARTIES AND MINORITIES ARE IN PARTIALLY REIMBURSED FROM THE STATE BUDGET (70 MILLION KUNA -- ABOUT 10.7 MILLION USD HAS BEEN APPROPRIATED TO FINANCE THE CAMPAIGN). THE ELECTION LAW REQUIRES EQUAL TREATMENT OF ALL CANDIDATES, INCLUDING FREE PRESENTATION IN PRIME TIME ON NATIONAL RADIO AND TV. BEFORE THE PARLIAMENT DISSOLVED, IT AGREED THAT EACH POLITICAL PARTY WOULD BE GRANTED A 45-MINUTE BLOCK OF PRIME TIME ON THE STATE-OWNED TV CHANNEL AND 15 MINUTES OF PRIME TIME ON EVERY CHANNEL WHICH HAS BEEN GRANTED A NATIONWIDE LICENSE TO BROADCAST. FRANK ZAGREB 00002259 003.2 OF 003 T LIMITED TO RUNNING ON MINORITY SLATES AND IN FACT ETHNIC MINORITY POLITICIANS PLAY LEADERSHIP ROLES IN A FEW OF CROATIA'S MORE PROGRESSIVE POLITICAL PARTIES. TRANSPARENCY IN CAMPAIGN FINANCING -------------- ¶13. (SBU) POLITICAL PARTIES MUST PUBLICIZE THEIR APPROXIMATE CAMPAIGN BUDGET AND THE SOURCE OF CONTRIBUTIONS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE "OFFICIAL" CAMPAIGN ON NOVEMBER 5. CAMPAIGNING EXPENSES OF PARTIES AND MINORITIES ARE IN PARTIALLY REIMBURSED FROM THE STATE BUDGET (70 MILLION KUNA -- ABOUT 10.7 MILLION USD HAS BEEN APPROPRIATED TO FINANCE THE CAMPAIGN). THE ELECTION LAW REQUIRES EQUAL TREATMENT OF ALL CANDIDATES, INCLUDING FREE PRESENTATION IN PRIME TIME ON NATIONAL RADIO AND TV. BEFORE THE PARLIAMENT DISSOLVED, IT AGREED THAT EACH POLITICAL PARTY WOULD BE GRANTED A 45-MINUTE BLOCK OF PRIME TIME ON THE STATE-OWNED TV CHANNEL AND 15 MINUTES OF PRIME TIME ON EVERY CHANNEL WHICH HAS BEEN GRANTED A NATIONWIDE LICENSE TO BROADCAST. FRANK NNNN