WHO'S WHO IN CROATIAN POLITICS - AN ELECTION PRIMER

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 002132

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/30/2013
TAGS: PGOV PINR HR
SUBJECT: WHO'S WHO IN CROATIAN POLITICS - AN ELECTION PRIMER

Classified By: Poloff A.F.Godfrey for reasons 1.5 (B,D)


1. (C) Croatia's next parliamentary elections are expected
to take place on November 23. For the uninitiated, the
number of political parties, alliances and personalities
might seem overwhelming. At this stage in Croatia's
democratic development, political parties are beginning to
stake out distinct territory on the policy spectrum, but most
voters still make their choices either by loyalty to a "brand
name" or by identifying with the personalities at the top of
a party's electoral list.


2. (C) This telegram is intended as a reference tool. It
provides a thumbnail sketch of some of the leading Croatian
politicians expected to play a role in this parliamentary
election. The politicians are listed alphabetically in one
of two groups -- ruling coalition and opposition parties.
After results of the final USAID-sponsored IRI poll are
released (on October 9),we will offer a primer on Croatia's
political parties and their basic platforms, along with their
ratings at the beginning of the sprint to the November 23
election. When the parliament is dissolved and elections
finally called (expected in mid-October),we will offer a
primer on the rules of the election game in Croatia.

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Ruling Coalition Figures
========================


3. (C) Zeljka Antunovic (Age 48, Social Democratic Party -
SDP) As deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Defense, and Vice
President of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) Antunovic is
Croatia's undisputed leading woman politician. Many were
skeptical when she was appointed to be Croatia's first female
Defense Minister in June 2002, but steady success on tough
management issues like defense downsizing have turned heads.
A pragmatic, engaging personality, she is expected to be a
standard-bearer for the SDP as the campaign heats up. Unlike
Racan, Antunovic has no skeletons in her closet from the
Communist League of Croatia, which gives SDP's centrist
claims more credibility.


4. (C) Ivo Banac (Age 56, Liberal Party - LS) Well-liked by
the few in Croatia who know him and mistrusted by the vast
majority who do not, this outsider was a full-time professor
at Yale before he won the presidency of the Liberal Party
early in 2003. His blunt approach has alienated some of the
LS faithful, but his appreciation of U.S. policy is sometimes
music to our ears. We understand Banac is keeping his chair
at Yale in reserve if (or when) things go poorly for LS at
elections.


5. (C) Milan Bandic (Age 48, SDP) An ambitious workaholic
known in every corner in the capital, Bandic is a modern
politician in the American style; no babies go unkissed an no
ribbons are uncut without Bandic posing for the newspapers.
He is in the middle of a political comeback from a drunk
driving incident in early 2002, after which he had to step
down from the Mayor's chair. His popularity extends only as
far as the Zagreb city limits, where hizzoner is expected to
take back the mayor's chair when it comes open next. Outside
of Zagreb, Bandic could be a liability to the SDP and Racan
may keep this one-time rival at arm's length.


6. (C) Radimir Cacic (Age 54, Croatian Peoples' Party -HNS)
Rough-hewn and blunt-spoken, Cacic was rated as the "most
efficient" Minister in the current government. Cacic is
given credit for the government's progress in building
highways and housing. A successful businessman both in and
out of government, Cacic is viewed with suspicion by some
observers for potential conflict of interest. He is
notorious for his careless statements; even his closest party
colleagues say that he should just work, and not speak at
all.


7. (C) Goran Granic (Age 53, Libra) The workhorse of the
Racan government and Deputy Prime Minister for most of its
term in office, Granic has become a liability for the
coalition. Granic's portfolio includes ICTY, returnee issues
and intelligence oversight. The longer he went on, the more
the policy constraints imposed by the international community
began to chafe. While he recognizes how important it is for
Croatia's future to cooperate with ICTY, he bristles at any
negative characterization of the goals of Croatia's "homeland
war." In the past year, he became bitter, and took ICTY
criticism of GoC shortcomings personally. He alienated
potential allies of GoC policy on more than one occasion when
lashing out at perceived attackers.


8. (C) Ivan Jakovcic (Age 48, Istrian Democratic Union -
IDS) The Lord of Istria, Croatia's most-developed western
region, Jakovcic cares little for politics in Zagreb.
Jakovcic rules the IDS with an iron hand, while at the same
time attempts to present the impression of an urbane, modern
leader. Jakovcic's political goals are simple: make the best

political deal he can with Zagreb to ensure the most
development and independence for Istria. Too long in power,
the IDS and Jakovcic personally are beset by scandals, one of
which involves Jakovcic's purchase of an entire historic
village.


9. (C) Damir Kajin (Age 41, IDS) The emissary of the Istrian
party in Zagreb, Kajin is a loyal lieutenant of Jakovcic but
regularly polls higher than his boss both in Istria and on
the national level. Kajin is an eloquent and frequent
proponent of progressive policy choices from the floor of the
parliament and often comes under fire from the nationalist
right-wing. An able scrapper, Kajin usually holds his own.
Unlike Jakovcic, Kajin is widely viewed as a leader of high
principles and integrity.


10. (C) Slavko Linic (Age 54, SDP) This former long-time
Mayor of Rijeka has played a key role in restructuring the
Croatian economy as Racan's Deputy Prime Minister responsible
for all things economic. While basic economic indicators in
Croatia are turning up, Linic is tainted with suspicion for
all of the GoC's recent false starts on privatization. Linic
was much more popular while he was a successful mayor of an
"opposition" city that defied the Tudjman government. His
national-level role as Croatia's official belt-tightener and
his tough portfolio have hurt Linic's ratings. The fact that
he is intolerant of the media and at times even hostile to
reporters doesn't help either.


11. (C) Stipe Mesic (Age 69, HNS?). As President of
Croatia, Mesic is supposed to remain above the political
fray, but the nearer elections approach, the more likely it
is that his HNS colors will show through. With a year to go
in his five-year term, Mesic remains popular and is trusted
by the people and has become the conscience of Croatian
politics. Mesic speaks in plain words and easily cuts to the
heart of the matter. His past affinity for the non-aligned
movement sometimes leads him to make choices at odds with
U.S. policy goals; his early, unmeasured statements against
U.S. action in Iraq and his recent trip to Libya are
examples. These conflict with his positive statements
encouraging refugee return, regional fence mending and
cooperation with ICTY.


12. (C) Tonino Picula (Age 42, SDP). Croatia's foreign
minister draws most of his political influence from his
absolute loyalty to his party boss, PM Racan. At the same
time, Racan's patronage is an obstacle for him to become a
full-fledged leader. Just before Picula's appointment almost
four years ago, one of the winning coalition leaders told the
Embassy that "Picula will be the foreign minister, but Racan
will run foreign affairs." Four years later, analysts argue
this is still the case. However, Croatian foreign policy
achievements early on necessarily turned this former party
secretary to a fairly popular national figure. Picula's

SIPDIS
youthful approach and hardworking nature suggest he has a
long political future.


13. (C) Vesna Pusic (Age 50, HNS). A modern, sophisticated,
charismatic leader, this former Georgetown professor has
turned her one-time marginal Croatian People's Party into a
serious player. Her deep-seated liberal views win her few
admirers outside the intellectual elite, but she has helped
keep the Racan coalition going. In practice, Pusic has
proven herself to be a pragmatic politician ready to get
things done. Some see her as the next FM if an SDP-led
coalition returns to power after the next election.


14. (C) Ivica Racan (Age 59, SDP). PM Racan is a man of
patience and tactic, rather than one of action. While these
traits helped him survive the Tudjman regime as he
transformed Croatia's League of Communists into the SDP, it
has been maddening for those who hoped for decisive
leadership and has meant missed opportunities for Croatia.
While his SDP may now be a modern, left-of-center party,
Racan (its president) still has reflexes from its communist
past. When he cut a back-room deal with his Slovenian
counterpart on a contentious maritime border issue, he was
shocked to learn that he could not muscle it through even his
own party, let alone the rest of the parliament. He is
excessively risk-averse, and his decision to back away first
from the Vilnius-10 declaration and later from a decision to
deploy Croatian troops to Iraq hurt Croatia's relations with
the U.S.


15. (C) Jozo Rados (Age 47, Libra) Genial and intelligent,
Rados's preference to remain out of the day-to-day political
dialogue will likely bring about his doom as a leader in
Croatia. He showed real political courage when he led a
group of MP's away from Budisa's HSLS to save the Racan
government, but his ineptitude as a manager during his
15-month stint as Minister of Defense meant a slow start on
defense reform.


16. (C) Zlatko Tomcic (Age 58, Croatian Peasant's Party -

HSS) Authoritarian and politically vain, Tomcic is the
undisputed leader of the Croatian Peasant Party; he expects -
and rewards - total obedience. Comfortably positioned in a
political can't-lose position as Croatia's third strongest
party (and therefore kingmaker),the HSS has a stable, mainly
rural constituency. Tomcic likes to give the impression that
as Speaker of Croatia's Parliament he is above the political
rough-and-tumble, but he is really a natural at cutting
back-room deals and drives a notoriously hard bargain with
Racan. Because of his constituency, the Catholic Church has
strong influence over Tomcic.

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Opposition Parties
==================


17. (C) Drazen Budisa (Age 55, Croatian Social Liberal Party
- HSLS) Imperious, unpredictable and politically
self-destructive, Budisa took his party from the
second-largest in Croatia to the brink of political
irrelevance in less than two years. An egotistic tantrum
brought down the first Racan government and split his party.
A charismatic public speaker still viewed as a tragic hero
from his role in the "Croatian Spring," he should never be
counted all the way out as a political force.


18. (C) Anto Djapic (Age 45, Croatian Party of Rights, HSP)
President of the most radical nationalist party in Croatian
Parliament, Djapic has been an apologist and even an open
admirer of Croatia's World War II-era fascist regime. Under
pressure from the HDZ (which might need the HSP to form a
coalition government),Djapic renounced the Ustashe in
September 2003. Some observers speculate that Djapic has
been handsomely compensated by the HDZ for making them look
reasonable by comparison.


19. (C) Mate Granic (Age 56, Democratic Center - DC)
Minister of Foreign Affairs for most of the Tudjman regime,
Granic broke away from the HDZ to form "Democratic Center" in
early 2000. Although the DC never got off the ground as a
conservative alternative to the HDZ, Granic often polls as
Croatia's most popular politician. His positive polling is a
result of good name recognition and his inability to offend
anyone. His younger brother is Deputy PM Goran Granic, who
reportedly once remarked that "whenever there is anything
important to decide, Mate is usually in the bathroom."


20. (C) Jadranka Kosor (Age 50, HDZ) Adding a human, even
glamorous, face to the traditionally hard-line HDZ, Kosor's
approach to the public is shaped by her status as a single
mother caring for an elderly, infirm parent. While she may
have been added to the HDZ presidency to give it gender
balance, she is now an important political player in her own
right.


21. (C) Ivic Pasalic (Age 44, Croatian Blok - HB) Pasalic
was purged from the HDZ after nearly defeating Sanader in a
bruising race for the party presidency. As the "eminence
grise" for much of the Tudjman regime, Pasalic is widely
believed to have been personally responsible for some of the
worst HDZ abuses of power both during and after the war. But
nothing has stuck to Pasalic, and although he is on the USG's
"obstructing Dayton" blacklist, he has not been indicted in
Croatia.


22. (C) Ivo Sanader (Age 50, Croatian Democratic Union -
HDZ) A polished, eloquent salesman, in the three years since
he took over Tudjman's HDZ, Sanader eliminated his internal
political opposition using both fair means and foul. Now he
is working overtime to present the HDZ as just another
conservative European party. Sanader wears his ambition on
his sleeve (right next to his Rolex) and will make any deal
that will get his HDZ into government. He and a few other
HDZ leaders represent the respectable veneer on the
largely-unreformed HDZ.


23. (C) Vladimir Seks (Age 60, HDZ) The whip of the HDZ
parliamentary caucus, Seks uses his considerable procedural
expertise to keep the Racan government as uncomfortable as
possible. His reputation is still tainted with the worst
forms of Tudjman-era cronyism, but he has quit drinking and
is working hard to reform his public image. A new scandal
about coercing "contributions" to the party from business
leaders in the old days and his continued low ratings in
polls suggest that the Croatian public still takes him for
the Tudjman-era dirty dealer that he always was.


24. (C) Miroslav Tudjman (Age 58, Croatian True Revival -
HIP) Tudjman Junior's greatest political assets are his name
recognition and his uncanny physical resemblance to his
father. The head of one of Croatia's often-abused
intelligence services during the HDZ regime, some observers
believe he has enough "goods" on coalition leaders to keep
them from going after him. More likely is that they do not
see this uncharismatic academic as a threat.

FRANK


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