CROATIA EAGER TO MOVE FORWARD TO SIGN ADRIATIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000127 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR (BOGUE AND BRADTKE),EUR/RPM (BAME) AND EUR/SCE (NARDI) NSC FOR FRIED AND TEPPER E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2013 TAGS: PREL PARM HR AL PARM HR AL NATO NATO SUBJECT: CROATIA EAGER TO MOVE FORWARD TO SIGN ADRIATIC CHARTER FOR NATO WITH ALBANIA AND MACEDONIA REF: 02 ZAGREB 2278 CLASSIFIED BY: POLOFF A.F.GODFREY FOR REASONS 1.5 (B,D) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) THE ATTITUDE OF OFFICIALS IN THE GOC TOWARD THE "ADRIATIC CHARTER," AS PROMOTED BY BRUCE JACKSON, HAS BECOME SHARPLY MORE POSITIVE. CROATIA IS NOW PREPARING TO PARTICIPATE IN A DRAFTING SESSION WITH ALBANIA AND MACEDONIA AND LOOKS TO SEND ITS FOREIGN MINISTER TO WASHINGTON FOR A SIGNING CEREMONY WITH SECRETARY POWELL IN EARLY APRIL. JACKSON REPORTEDLY TOLD FM PICULA ON JANUARY 15 THAT THE CHARTER HAS THE FULL SUPPORT OF THE "HIGHEST LEVELS" OF THE USG. CROATIA HOPES THAT COOPERATION OF THE "ADRIATIC THREE" WILL IMPROVE ITS CHANCES FOR AN EARLY INVITATION FOR FULL NATO MEMBERSHIP. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) ON JANUARY 17, WE MET WITH ZORAN MILANOVIC, HEAD OF THE MFA'S DEPARTMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND ALSO THE CHAIR OF THE GOC INTERAGENCY WORKING GROUP ON IMPLEMENTATION OF NATO'S MAP, TO GET A READ-OUT ON THE JANUARY 15 VISIT TO ZAGREB OF BRUCE JACKSON, PRESIDENT OF THE PROJECT ON TRANSITIONAL DEMOCRACIES. JACKSON'S VISIT WAS LOW-PROFILE; HE SOUGHT TO AVOID THE UNHELPFUL DEBATE IN THE CROATIAN PRESS THAT FOLLOWED HIS SEPTEMBER 2002 VISIT TO ZAGREB (REF). CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 00127 01 OF 02 171618Z ¶3. (C) MILANOVIC SAID JACKSON ASSERTED TO FOREIGN MINISTER PICULA THAT THE IDEA OF THE ADRIATIC CHARTER HAS THE FULL SUPPORT OF THE "HIGHEST LEVELS" OF THE USG, PARTICULARLY OF THE NSC AND SPECIFICALLY OF NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER DR. RICE. JACKSON DESCRIBED THE JANUARY 10 DINNER HOSTED BY THE ALBANIAN AMBASSADOR IN WASHINGTON, ATTENDED BY THE CROATIAN AND MACEDONIAN AMBASSADORS AND ALSO BY KEY SENIOR USG POLICYMAKERS, AS AN AFFIRMATION OF THE USG'S SUPPORT FOR HIS EFFORT TO PUSH THE ADRIATIC CHARTER FORWARD. WHILE MILANOVIC UNDERSTANDS THAT JACKSON IS NOT A GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL, HE IS CONVINCED THAT JACKSON IS ACTING ON BEHALF OF THE USG IN THIS MATTER. ¶4. (C) MILANOVIC SAID THAT THE LEVEL OF RECEPTIVENESS TO THE IDEA OF GROUPING TOGETHER THE REMAINING "CONTINUING ASPIRANTS" INTO THE "ADRIATIC THREE" IS GAINING SUPPORT WITHIN THE CROATIAN GOVERNMENT. GOC OFFICIALS HAVE COME �00A;AROUND TO JACKSON'S REASONING THAT IT IS EASIER TO GET THE ATTENTION OF WASHINGTON -- AND OTHER CAPITALS IN THE ALLIANCE -- WITH THREE FOREIGN MINISTERS ACTING TOGETHER RATHER THAN SEPARATELY. CONVINCING THE CROATIAN PUBLIC WILL BE A MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TASK. THE PUBLIC -- AND MANY OPINION LEADERS -- WILL CONTINUE TO RESIST ANY SORT OF REGIONAL GROUPING, ESPECIALLY IF IT SMACKS OF RE-CREATING THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA. ¶5. (C) MILANOVIC SAID THAT FOREIGN MINISTER PICULA AND JACKSON AGREED TO A COURSE OF EVENTS WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE SIGNING OF AN "ADRIATIC CHARTER" IN WASHINGTON IN APRIL. THE FIRST EVENT IS A MEETING OF POLITICAL DIRECTORS IN SKOPJE ON JANUARY 23 (MILANOVIC WILL LEAD CROATIA'S DELEGATION). THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 00127 01 OF 02 171618Z SKOPJE MEETING WAS ORIGINALLY BILLED AS A DRAFTING SESSION, BUT MILANOVIC CLAIMS IT IS TOO EARLY IN THE PROCESS TO DRAFT. HE EXPECTS POLITICAL DIRECTORS TO AGREE ON BASIC ELEMENTS FROM WHICH A DRAFT CAN BE PUT TOGETHER LATER. IN MARCH, ONCE A TEXT IS NEAR COMPLETION, THE "A-THREE" FOREIGN MINISTERS (MILANOVIC IS ALREADY USING THE MONIKER) WILL MEET IN DUBROVNIK TO AGREE ON A FINAL DRAFT. ¶6. (C) ONCE A DRAFT CHARTER IS AGREED UPON AMONG THE THREE, THE FOREIGN MINISTERS WILL TRAVEL TO WASHINGTON FOR A SIGNING CEREMONY. MILANOVIC SAID JACKSON ASSURED HIM SECRETARY POWELL WILL SIGN THE CHARTER WITH THE THREE FOREIGN MINISTERS. AFTER THE SIGNING CEREMONY, JACKSON TOLD PICULA THAT THERE WOULD BE A PHOTO OPPORTUNITY WITH VICE PRESIDENT CHENEY. ¶7. (C) IN A SHARP SHIFT FROM VIEWS EXPRESSED JUST FOUR MONTHS EARLIER, MILANOVIC SAID CROATIA WOULD WELCOME THE PARTICIPATION OF OTHER STATES IN THE REGION, AND EVEN SAID THAT IF OTHER STATES, INCLUDING BOSNIA AND YUGOSLAVIA WANT TO JOIN THE ADRIATIC GROUP, "SO MUCH THE BETTER." MILANOVIC SAID CROATIA UNDERSTANDS HOW IMPORTANT THE ADRIATIC CHARTER COULD BE TO CROATIA'S FUTURE. MILANOVIC ALSO KNOWS HOW IMPORTANT CROATIA'S PARTICIPATION IN THE CHARTER IS FOR CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ1518 PAGE 01 ZAGREB 00127 02 OF 02 171618Z ACTION EUR-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 DCP-01 NRRC-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SCT-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 SSD-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 SSR-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /008W -------------- 276EFD 171619Z /38 O 171605Z JAN 03 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9235 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE USMISSION USNATO IMMEDIATE AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PRIORITY AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO PRIORITY AMEMBASSY SKOPJE PRIORITY AMEMBASSY SOFIA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY TIRANA PRIORITY C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ZAGREB 000127 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR (BOGUE AND BRADTKE),EUR/RPM (BAME) AND EUR/SCE (NARDI) NSC FOR FRIED AND TEPPER E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2013 TAGS: PREL PARM HR AL PARM HR AL NATO NATO CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 00127 02 OF 02 171618Z SUBJECT: CROATIA EAGER TO MOVE FORWARD TO SIGN ADRIATIC CHARTER FOR NATO WITH ALBANIA AND MACEDONIA JACKSON'S SUCCESS. MILANOVIC SAID JACKSON GAVE FM PICULA THE HARD SELL, BUT SUCCEEDED. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) CROATIA'S NEW READINESS TO ACCEPT JACKSON'S IDEA OF AN ADRIATIC CHARTER REFLECTS A SOBER, MATURING UNDERSTANDING OF WHERE ITS CANDIDACY FOR NATO MEMBERSHIP STANDS POST-PRAGUE. CROATIA DIDN'T LIKE THE ARGUMENTS JACKSON PUT FORWARD IN SEPTEMBER FAVORING A NEW GROUPING OF CANDIDATES, BUT THAT DIDN'T CHANGE THE FACT THAT THE ARGUMENTS WERE CONVINCING. NOW THE GOC -- AT LEAST AT SENIOR LEVELS -- HAS BEGUN TO COME AROUND. BUT THE RACAN GOVERNMENT HAS SO FAR NOT EVEN BEGUN TO PRESENT THE IDEA OF A CHARTER TO THE PUBLIC, THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE RESISTANCE TO ALIGNING CROATIA WITH OTHER STATES OF THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA, AND -- IN CONTRAST TO OTHER CANDIDATES -- JACKSON IS STILL NOT YET ENJOYING SUSTAINED ACCESS TO GOC LEADERS. ROSSIN CONFIDENTIAL >