CROATIA: ELECTIONS FOR LOCAL MINORITY COUNCILS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ZAGREB 001164 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2008 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PHUM PHUM HR HRPGOV OSCE SUBJECT: CROATIA: ELECTIONS FOR LOCAL MINORITY COUNCILS FAIL -- PLENTY OF BLAME TO GO AROUND REF: ZAGREB 995 CLASSIFIED BY: POLOFF A.F.GODFREY FOR REASONS 1.5 (B,D) SUMMARY -------------- CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 01164 01 OF 03 231059Z ¶1. (C) ELECTIONS FOR CROATIA'S NEW LOCAL MINORITY COUNCILS WERE HELD ON MAY 18, BUT THE TURNOUT WAS SO LOW THAT THE ELECTIONS ARE BROADLY JUDGED TO BE A TOTAL FAILURE. THERE IS ENOUGH BLAME ON ALL SIDES TO GO AROUND. THE GOVERNMENT SET AN UNREALISTICALLY SHORT -- BUT LEGAL -- DEADLINE, FAILED TO EDUCATE POTENTIAL VOTERS ADEQUATELY AND DID NOT TAKE STEPS TO UPDATE A "DISASTROUSLY" OUTDATED VOTER REGISTRY. MINORITIES WERE WARNED OF UPCOMING ELECTIONS WELL IN ADVANCE, BUT THOSE GROUPS WHICH CHOSE TO PARTICIPATE DID LITTLE TO PREPARE AND REMAIN DISORGANIZED. THE OSCE MISSION IN CROATIA ISSUED A STATEMENT CALLING FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO HOLD REPEAT ELECTIONS WHERE COUNCILS WERE NOT SEATED, BUT SUCH A REPEAT ELECTION WOULD REQUIRE A CHANGE IN THE LAW. THE ELECTIONS COMMISSION HAS DELAYED RELEASE OF THE RESULTS, BUT PRELIMINARY VOTER TURNOUT DATA SHOW THAT, IN SOME DISTRICTS, OBSERVERS OUTNUMBERED VOTERS. THE GOVERNMENT INSISTS THAT THE ELECTIONS WERE LAWFUL AND THAT COUNCILS SHOULD BEGIN TO FUNCTION IN REGIONS WHERE ELECTIONS TOOK PLACE. IN A MAY 21 MEETING WITH DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER ANTE SIMONIC, THE AMBASSADOR URGED THE GOC TO ENSURE GREATER PARTICIPATION BY MINORITIES IN THE DEMOCRATIC PROCESS. END SUMMARY. MAY 18 MINORITY ELECTIONS -- WHERE WERE THE VOTERS? -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) CROATIA'S NEW CONSTITUTIONAL LAW ON NATIONAL MINORITIES (CLNM) CALLED FOR ELECTIONS OF LOCAL-LEVEL "MINORITY COUNCILS" IN ALL MUNICIPALITIES WITH SIGNIFICANT ETHNIC MINORITY POPULATIONS (SEE REFTEL FOR DETAILS). SINCE EACH MINORITY COMMUNITY MAY ELECT ITS OWN COUNCIL (PROVIDED IT MAKES UP ENOUGH OF THE TOTAL POPULATION OF A CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 01164 01 OF 03 231059Z MUNICIPALITY),FULLY 470 COUNCILS COULD HAVE BEEN ELECTED. 140 COMMUNITIES WITH TOO FEW MINORITIES FOR A COUNCIL WERE ELIGIBLE TO ELECT SINGLE REPRESENTATIVES TO MAKE UP REGIONAL MINORITY COUNCILS. ¶3. (C) ELECTIONS WERE HELD IN LESS THAN HALF OF THE MUNICIPALITIES ELIGIBLE AND VOTER TURNOUT IN ALMOST ALL AREAS WHERE ELECTIONS WERE HELD WAS SO LOW AS TO BE LAUGHABLE. IN ONE DISTRICT, ONLY THREE VOTERS TURNED OUT TO CAST BALLOTS FOR A FIVE-CANDIDATE LIST, A TURNOUT OF 0.13 PERCENT. MINORITIES BLAME THE GOVERNMENT FOR NOT BEING ABLE TO FIELD LISTS OF CANDIDATES IN TIME TO MEET THE SHORT DEADLINE. CROATIA'S ETHNIC ITALIAN LEADERS CALLED FOR A BOYCOTT OF THE ELECTION. IN OTHER MUNICIPALITIES, MINORITIES EITHER LACKED INFORMATION ABOUT HOW TO REGISTER AS CANDIDATES OR WERE NOT ORGANIZED ENOUGH AT THE LOCAL LEVEL TO PUT TOGETHER A CANDIDATE LIST. IN A MAY 19 PRESS STATEMENT, THE OSCE MISSION IN CROATIA EXPRESSED "CONCERN" AT THE LOW VOTER TURNOUT AND CALLED FOR NEW ELECTIONS TO BE ORGANIZED IN MUNICIPALITIES WHERE THEY WERE NOT HELD. ETHNIC SERB POLITICIANS FOCUS ON RIVALRY -------------- ¶4. (C) MILORAD PUPOVAC, PRESIDENT OF CROATIA'S SERB NATIONAL COUNCIL (AND ALSO PRESIDENT OF THE INDEPENDENT DEMOCRATIC SERB PARTY - SDSS),TOOK PAINS TO DESCRIBE TO US HIS ORGANIZATION'S EFFORTS TO REACH OUT TO LOCAL-LEVEL MINORITY COMMUNITIES. HE AGREED THAT TURNOUT WAS DISMAL, BUT WOULD PRESS FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO CONSTITUTE COUNCILS WHERE LAWFUL ELECTIONS TOOK PLACE. SINCE THE LAW PREVENTED POLITICAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 01164 01 OF 03 231059Z PARTIES FROM SUBMITTING CANDIDATE LISTS, PUPOVAC'S POSITION ON THE SERB NATIONAL COUNCIL GAVE HIM AND HIS SDSS UNIQUE ADVANTAGE OVER RIVAL ETHNIC SERB POLITICIANS IN CAMPAIGNING FOR MINORITY COUNCILS. PUPOVAC TOLD US THAT ONE INDIRECT GOAL OF THE CLNM IN CREATING LOCAL COUNCILS WAS TO GIVE LOCAL COMMUNITIES MORE OF A VOICE IN MINORITY AFFAIRS. HE AGREED THAT OUTSIDE OF A SMALL, POLITICALLY ACTIVE ELITE, MOST MINORITIES ARE NOT ENGAGED IN THE DEMOCRATIC PROCESS IN CROATIA. MILAN DUKIC, PRESIDENT OF THE SERB INDEPENDENT PARTY (SNS - RIVAL TO PUPOVAC' SDSS) WAS NOT ABLE TO MOBILIZE VOTERS TO TAKE PART IN ELECTIONS, AND SO DISPARAGED THE ELECTIONS AS A "CHARADE." ¶5. (C) PUPOVAC TOLD US HE RECOGNIZES THAT THE GOVERNMENT'S DECISION TO SET THE ELECTION DATE WAS LEGAL, BUT POINTS OUT THAT IT WOULD ALSO HAVE BEEN LEGAL TO SET THE DATE NEARLY A MONTH LATER. FURIO RADIN, WHO REPRESENTS THE ITALIAN MINORITY IN PARLIAMENT AND ALSO CHAIRS ITS HUMAN RIGHTS COMMITTEE, DECLARED TO THE PRESS THAT THE LOW TURNOUT MADE THE ELECTION A "FAILURE" AND CALLED FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO HOLD NEW ELECTIONS WITH MORE REASONABLE LEAD TIME AND WITH GREATER EFFORTS TO EDUCATE POTENTIAL VOTERS. OTHER ETHNIC LEADERS HAVE OPENLY SPECULATED THAT RADIN'S OPPOSITION TO THESE ELECTIONS HAS BEEN MOTIVATED IN PART BY HIS CONCERN THAT THE NEW COUNCILS COULD DISPLACE WELL-ESTABLISHED CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5738 PAGE 01 ZAGREB 01164 02 OF 03 231100Z ACTION EUR-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 PERC-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 DHS-00 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SCT-00 SP-00 IRM-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 IIP-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-01 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /007W -------------- 6A0199 231100Z /38 R 231042Z MAY 03 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC 0290 INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 ZAGREB 001164 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2008 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PHUM PHUM HR HRPGOV OSCE SUBJECT: CROATIA: ELECTIONS FOR LOCAL MINORITY COUNCILS FAIL -- PLENTY OF BLAME TO GO AROUND ORGANIZATIONS OF CROATIA'S ETHNIC ITALIANS. NGO: POLLING PROPER, BUT VOTER REGISTERS A "DISASTER" -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) GONG, THE HIGHLY-REGARDED CROATIAN NGO WITH LONG EXPERIENCE IN MONITORING ELECTIONS IN THE REGION, SENT OUT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 01164 02 OF 03 231100Z TEAMS OF OBSERVERS TO 48 POLLING PLACES. WE MET WITH VLATKA SVEDRUZIC, WHO COORDINATED GONG'S EFFORTS AND ALSO EXECUTED A MODEST VOTER-INFORMATION CAMPAIGN SPONSORED BY THE OSCE MISSION IN CROATIA. SVEDRUZIC SAID THAT THE CONDUCT OF THE POLL WAS PROPER IN ALL RESPECTS, BUT NOT ALL POLLING PLACES WERE OPEN. LOCAL OFFICIALS MADE TIMELY ANNOUNCEMENTS ABOUT WHICH POLLS WOULD BE OPEN, BUT THERE WAS CONFUSION AMONG VOTERS NONETHELESS. CENTRAL GOVERNMENT SUPPORT TO POLLING PLACES WAS APPROPRIATE, AND ADEQUATE RESOURCES WERE DISBURSED TO COVER THE COSTS OF THE POLL. THE BIGGEST TECHNICAL PROBLEM WAS OUTDATED VOTER REGISTERS WHICH SVEDRUZIC TERMED A "DISASTER." DECISIONS ABOUT WHICH DISTRICTS HAD A SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH MINORITY COMMUNITY TO WARRANT A LOCAL COUNCIL WERE MADE BASED ON THE 2001 CENSUS. BUT THIS INFORMATION DID NOT MATCH VOTER ROLLS, SINCE INFORMATION IN THE CENSUS ABOUT ETHNICITY IS CONSIDERED CONFIDENTIAL. VOTER ROLLS ARE ONLY UPDATED BEFORE A MAJOR ELECTION, SVEDRUZIC EXPLAINED, AND THE CURRENT LISTS DATE FROM PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN JANUARY 2000, AND THEREFORE DO NOT INCLUDE MANY FORMER REFUGEES WHO HAVE RETURNED TO THEIR HOMES IN CROATIA. ¶7. (C) SVEDRUZIC DESCRIBED THE GOVERNMENT'S EFFORTS TO EDUCATE VOTERS AS "MINIMAL." CANDIDATE LISTS WERE PUBLISHED IN THE LOCAL NEWSPAPERS, AND ANNOUNCEMENTS ABOUT THE ELECTIONS WERE MADE ON THE RADIO. GONG RAN A MODEST GET-OUT-THE-VOTE CAMPAIGN WITH FINANCIAL SUPPORT FROM THE OSCE MISSION IN CROATIA. SVEDRUZIC SAID THAT THERE WERE NEARLY AS MANY REASONS FOR LOW TURNOUT THERE ARE DISTINCT ETHNIC COMMUNITIES IN CROATIA. SOME SERB POLITICIANS SAW THE ELECTION AS A CHANCE TO SCORE POINTS AGAINST THEIR RIVALS. CZECHS AND HUNGARIANS HAVE NO ORGANIZATION WITHIN THEIR CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 01164 02 OF 03 231100Z ETHNIC COMMUNITIES. ITALIANS CHOSE TO BOYCOTT. BOSNIAKS ARE WELL-ORGANIZED, BUT SINCE THEY WERE ONLY DESIGNATED AS AN OFFICIAL "NATIONAL ETHNIC MINORITY" WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CLNM IN DECEMBER, THEY HAD TO CHANGE THEIR ETHNICITY STATUS AT THE POLLING PLACE. (NOTE: BOSNIAK TURNOUT WAS STRONGER THAN ANY OTHER MINORITY GROUP, BUT WAS STILL RELATIVELY LOW.) SVEDRUZIC SAID THEY MET WITH ROMA REPRESENTATIVES, BUT BECAUSE SO MANY OF CROATIA'S ROMA ARE ILLITERATE, THE INFORMATION HANDOUTS DISTRIBUTED WOULD BE OF LIMITED USE. EXPLAINING LOW TURNOUT -------------- ¶8. (C) ROMAN MESTROVIC, AN SDP MEMBER OF THE PARLIAMENT'S HUMAN RIGHTS COMMITTEE, TOLD US THAT HE EXPECTED THE GOVERNMENT WOULD TAKE THE LION'S SHARE OF THE BLAME FOR THE "TOTAL FAILURE" OF THE ELECTION, BUT THERE IS "PLENTY OF BLAME FOR ALL." MESTROVIC BELIEVES IT WOULD BE BEST TO THROW OUT ALL OF THE ELECTION RESULTS. THE MAY 18 EXERCISE SHOULD SERVE AS AN "EDUCATION" AND, WITH TECHNICAL CHANGES TO THE LAW, THE PARLIAMENT SHOULD SCHEDULE NEW ELECTIONS TO TAKE PLACE CONCURRENTLY WITH EITHER PARLIAMENTARY OR LOCAL ELECTIONS. MATO ARLOVIC, SDP VICE PRESIDENT AND CHAIR OF THE PARLIAMENT'S CONSTITUTION, RULES AND POLITICAL SYSTEM COMMITTEE, TOLD THE PRESS THAT THE LOW TURNOUT IS ACTUALLY A "GOOD RESULT" FOR CROATIA, SINCE IT MEANS MANY MINORITIES ARE CHOOSING THE "CIVIC OPTION" OF IDENTIFYING THEMSELVES AS CROATIAN CITIZENS BROADLY AND NOT AS MEMBERS OF INDIVIDUAL ETHNIC COMMUNITIES. DEPUTY PM: POLL WAS LEGAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 01164 02 OF 03 231100Z -------------- ¶9. (C) IN A MAY 21 MEETING WITH THE AMBASSADOR, DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER ANTE SIMONIC AGREED THAT LOW TURNOUT WAS A PROBLEM AND AGREED THAT THE GOVERNMENT, IN HINDSIGHT, SHOULD HAVE PICKED THE LONGER TIMELINE. HE DEFENDED THE LEGALITY OF THE SHORT DEADLINE, AND SAID THAT MINORITIES SHOULD SHOULDER SOME OF THE BLAME FOR THE ELECTIONS' FAILURE. MINOR GOVERNMENT SHORTCOMINGS IN PREPARING THE POLL HAD NO EFFECT ON VOTER TURNOUT, ASSERTED SIMONIC, WHICH WAS MAINLY DUE TO OBSTRUCTION BY OR DISORGANIZATION AMONG CROATIA'S MINOIRTY ASSOCIATIONS. HE SAID HIS PERSONAL VIEW IS THAT PART OF THE REASON FOR THE LOW TURNOUT WAS A "GENTLEMAN'S CONSPIRACY" BY MINORITY ORGANIZATIONS WHICH BELIEVE THEY STAND TO LOSE SIGNIFICANT FINANCIAL SUPPORT, BOTH FROM THE STATE BUDGET AND, IN THE CASE OF ITALIANS, FROM ABROAD WHEN THE NEW COUNCILS ARE FORMED. PM RACAN'S CABINET WOULD MEET SOON TO DISCUSS A WAY FORWARD ON THE ISSUE, AND HE SPECULATED THAT CHANGES TO THE LAW ON LOCAL ELECTIONS COULD BE PUSHED THROUGH TO MAKE POSSIBLE REPEAT ELECTIONS IN THOSE DISTRICTS WHERE THEY DID NOT TAKE PLACE. HOWEVER, A MAY 22 GOC PRESS STATEMENT INSISTED THAT THE POLL WAS LEGAL, THE TURNOUT WAS IN THE RANGE OF WHAT IT EXPECTED, AND THAT THE RESULTS WOULD STAND. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5739 PAGE 01 ZAGREB 01164 03 OF 03 231100Z ACTION EUR-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 PERC-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 DHS-00 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SCT-00 SP-00 IRM-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 IIP-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-01 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /007W -------------- 6A019B 231100Z /38 R 231042Z MAY 03 FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC 0291 INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 ZAGREB 001164 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2008 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PHUM PHUM HR HRPGOV OSCE SUBJECT: CROATIA: ELECTIONS FOR LOCAL MINORITY COUNCILS FAIL -- PLENTY OF BLAME TO GO AROUND AMBASSADOR: YOU NEED TO DO BETTER -------------- ¶10. (C) THE AMBASSADOR TOLD SIMONIC HE AGREED THAT MINORITY LEADERS WERE FOREWARNED ABOUT THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS AND SHOULD HAVE DONE MORE TO PREPARE. BUT THE GOVERNMENT COULD HAVE AND SHOULD HAVE SHOWN MORE GOOD WILL BY SETTING A MORE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 01164 03 OF 03 231100Z REALISTIC ELECTION DATE. THE AMBASSADOR URGED SIMONIC TO REACH OUT DIRECTLY TO MINORITIES RATHER THAN RELY ON THEIR CENTRAL ORGANIZATIONS TO RELAY INFORMATION FAITHFULLY. MINORITIES SHOULD BE EDUCATED INDIVIDUALLY ABOUT THE POTENTIAL BENEFITS CREATED BY THE NEW CLNM, URGED THE AMBASSADOR. MOON CONFIDENTIAL >