IAEA/IRAN: DUTCH MFA ON IAEA BOG NONCOMPLIANCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L THE HAGUE 002220 SIPDIS USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/2013 TAGS: KNNP PARM PREL MNUC IR NL IAEA SUBJECT: IAEA/IRAN: DUTCH MFA ON IAEA BOG NONCOMPLIANCE RESOLUTION REF: A. STATE 249878 ¶B. THE HAGUE 2173 Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL COUNSELOR MARY DALY FOR REASONS 1.5 (B AND D). ¶1. (C) Summary: Poloffs delivered ref A demarche to Dutch MFA Nonproliferation Chief Paul Wilke on September 3. The Dutch agree that a noncompliance resolution on Iran is warranted, but believe it may have to wait for Dir. ElBaradei's final report in November. According to Wilke there is "no unity" within the EU on Iran, and it will be difficult to gain consensus for a resolution at this time. Wilke said MFA was awaiting the results of September 5-6 EU FM's Gymnich meeting, as well as PM Balkenende's and FM de Hoop Scheffer's September 3 meetings in Washington. Wilke noted that a high-level Iranian official had recently told the GONL that Iran enjoyed no benefits under the NPT, and that pushing for a resolution in the present climate may result in even less Iranian cooperation. Wilke suggested a two-pronged approach of getting Iran to sign up to an Additional Protocol and agreeing to full cooperation with the IAEA, and also looking to move Iran away from elements of their program that will lead to a breakout capability. Despite his own view that a noncompliance resolution is not achievable at this time, Wilke said if the Dutch saw the possibility of a resolution at the September BOG meeting, they would unquestionably support it. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Poloffs made ref A points to Dutch MFA Nonproliferation Chief Paul Wilke on September 3. Wilke reiterated his previous comments (ref B) that the Dutch agree with U.S. arguments in support of a noncompliance resolution on Iran, and that there is no argument about the seriousness of the contents of the latest ElBaradei report. Nevertheless, Wilke said that tactically it might be advisable to wait until November to push for a resolution so as to coincide with Dir. ElBaradei's final report. He saw no unity in the EU on Iran, and said it would be difficult to gain consensus at this time. Wilke noted that Iran will be on the agenda at the upcoming September 5-6 EU FMs Gymnich meeting and said the MFA was looking to the results of that meeting as well as PM Balkenende and FM de Hoop Scheffer's meetings in Washington that day to determine next steps. ¶3. (C) Further to his comments on the lack of unity in EU on Iran, Wilke said the Germans opposed a noncompliance resolution at this time. He suggested that Germany might conclude that even if Iran has nuclear weapon capability, it still may not be an immediate threat to Europe and NATO. He underlined that it is precisely due to these divergences in perspective that more time is needed to gain support for a resolution. Concerning the Iranians, Wilke said that Iranian MFA Deputy Director General for International and Political Affairs Ali Asghar Soltanieh had recently told Dutch MFA Deputy Political Director Herman Schaper that Iran enjoyed no benefits under the NPT. Wilke said that pushing for a resolution in the present climate may cause Iran to become less cooperative with IAEA, possibly giving them an excuse to withdraw from the NPT altogether. In Wilke's view, a two-pronged approach is necessary in dealing with Iran: obtaining Iranian accession to an Additional Protocol and providing full cooperation with the IAEA, and also international efforts to move Iran away from those elements of its program that will lead it to a breakout capability. Despite the lack of unity in the EU and his own view that a noncompliance resolution was not achievable at this time, Wilke reiterated that if the Dutch saw a possibility for gaining a noncompliance resolution, they would "jump on it." SOBEL