ICTY: IS MILOSEVIC HOLDING UP?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 001417 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR S/WCI - PROSPER/MILLER, EUR - BOGUE, EUR/SCE - JONES/GREGORIAN, L/EUR - LAHNE, INR/WCAD - SPRIGG E.O. 12958: DECL: 1.6 FIVE YEARS AFTER CLOSURE OF ICTY TAGS: PREL PHUM BK HR SR NL ICTY SUBJECT: ICTY: IS MILOSEVIC HOLDING UP? REF: A. BELGRADE 810 ¶B. THE HAGUE 209 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Legal Counselor Clifton M. Johnson per 1.5 (b) and (d) a nd 1.6. ¶1. (C) Summary: The last two months have dealt blows to Slobodan Milosevic from Belgrade and within the trial chamber of the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY). In the ICTY, a series of witnesses have hammered Milosevic with crime-based details of the joint criminal enterprise of which Milosevic is alleged to be the head. As in the past, such challenges have been coupled with a decline in Milosevic's health, whether genuinely brought on by the tensions of the trial, manipulated for tactical reasons to prompt a trial delay, or a combination of the two. Meanwhile, the series of actions taken by the Government of Serbia and Montenegro (GOSAM) to round up those connected to the criminal gangs associated with the assassination of Zoran Djindjic has damaged his support network and further increased the pressure on him. In discussions with well-placed officials in the Registry and the Office of the Prosecutor (OTP) and based on their observations of him at trial, Embassy legal officers have gathered a mixed picture of Milosevic's physical and mental health. End summary. ¶2. (C) Embassy Belgrade has reported extensively on the law enforcement actions taken by the GOSAM since the March assassination of Zoran Djindjic, which in the process has netted much of Milosevic's former colleagues in running the former Yugoslavia (ref a, among others). Much of the round-up has hit Milosevic directly. Close observers of the trial, including those within OTP and the Registry, have long believed that Markovic has given general direction to the accused's defense efforts and led the political efforts on his behalf, supported by Simatovic, Stanisic and a bevy of Serb lawyers and bureaucratic (security, military, police) holdovers from the Milosevic regime. A Registry official has seen evidence that the support such persons provided is now drying up, leaving Milosevic increasingly isolated in his prison cell. ¶3. (C) In the weeks following the ICTY's spring recess (April 21 - 25),lead prosecutor Geoffrey Nice (protect),who sees Milosevic in the courtroom regularly, did not detect noticeable changes in his physical appearance or his ability to concentrate on the proceedings or conduct cross-examination. However, Registry senior legal officer Christian Rohde (protect),who sees Milosevic on a weekly basis outside the courtroom and monitors his health closely, gave a markedly different take. He told embassy legal officers that Milosevic had lost "a couple of kilos" in the past few weeks alone. Rohde said that those who see him outside of the proceedings believe that his defense is "totally weakening" and that it appears that he has lost access to his sources of intelligence and finances, something, Rohde averred, that is showing in his diminished level of trail preparation. The Registry has Milosevic's blood pressure under control at this time, but that is only because he is taking his medication as prescribed. If Milosevic goes off his medication, as he has done before, the health problems that have disrupted the trial in the past could come to the fore once again. On May 27, Milosevic came down with a high fever, causing the trial chamber to adjourn the trial for two days. However, the trial resumed on May 29. ¶4. (C) Senior trial attorney Dermot Groome (protect) concurred with Nice's view that, if the accused is suffering physically, his appearance does not reflect it in any worrying way. Embassy legal officers, who see Milosevic far less often than the prosecutors or Registry officials, noted that while Milosevic looked a bit gaunt during some proceedings in May, he did not look ill. Yet during the week of May 13, Groome told an embassy legal officer that, while he did not detect serious physical problems with Milosevic aside from some gauntness, he did notice a few changes in his preparation and courtroom behavior. (Note: Groome cautioned that these were initial impressions and could not be taken to reflect any kind of medical or psychological evaluation.) Groome said that on May 8, the accused showed signs of "disconnected thought processes" in his cross-examination, an area in which Milosevic was usually strong. His questions on cross were disjointed and did not seem to attend toward any particular goal. Groome found particularly disturbing an event in May 9, when, at the conclusion of his cross examination, Milosevic stood around with the amici curiae (the "friends of the court" assisting the defense but not defending him per se) and "giggled and engaged in silly" conversation -- something he'd never seen Milosevic do in over one year of trial proceedings. It could be fatigue, Groome suggested, but in a worst-case scenario, it could also spell the beginning of some kind of physical or mental exhaustion. If the latter, Groome worried that the chamber could be put in an even trickier bind than it is currently (i.e., where it must monitor the accused's blood pressure) because it would need to monitor his ability or competency to defend himself. Moreover, with a series of insider witnesses appearing in the coming weeks, Groome is worried about the possible cumulative effect of evidence and outside pressures on Milosevic's health. ¶5. (U) Meanwhile, an outburst by Milosevic during the presentation of "crime-base" evidence by the prosecution over the past few weeks resulted in a significant admission that the prosecution intends to exploit. Protected witness B-1461, a farmer from outside Zvornik, testified to the brutality of a Bosnian Serb paramilitary group under Dusan Vuckovic. During cross-examination, Milosevic asserted that "I and the authorities of Serbia" punished Vuckovic as a war criminal for his actions. While Milosevic may have thought that he was distancing himself from the crimes described, the outburst also provide an admission of a degree of disciplinary authority that he exercised over Bosnian Serb paramilitaries -- contrary to his normal insistence that Belgrade had nothing to do with the paramilitaries. ¶6. (U) On May 20, the trial chamber granted the prosecution's request for an additional 100 trial days beginning May 16 for it to complete its case. Milosevic did not object to the request reportedly stating to the judges, "Time has been the only consideration in what you call a trial." The trial chamber concluded that circumstances exist to vary the original order calling for the prosecution to finish its case by May 16, and that it is in the interests of justice to allow the prosecution to call as many witnesses as possible relating to its core case. (There have been more than 50 days lost due to Milosevic's ill health since the trial began.) The extension means that the trial will most likely continue into 2005. The trial chamber noted that without a final prosecution witness list, it is difficult for the accused to adequately prepare his defense. The prosecution stated that they would finalize the witness list shortly. ¶7. (C) Comment: Milosevic is entering the final stage of the trial against him in a significantly weaker position than he was just a few months ago. To outside observers, the prosecution seems to have hit its stride, with credible witnesses testifying to terrible crimes committed by those who were affiliated with Milosevic or his supporters. Milosevic seems to lack the resources to intimidate and rattle witnesses as he has done in the past. Meanwhile, his support network is dissipating -- it is unlikely that he has spoken to the person closest to him, his wife, since early April, when she was targeted for arrest by Belgrade law enforcement authorities. The big question facing the prosecutors and the bench at this stage is whether the flood of bad news will eventually overwhelm Milosevic's physical and/or mental health. Milosevic, though diminished, is not near that stage now but the coming weeks should make clearer whether the recent downturn in his health was a another in a series of temporary fluctuations or the beginning of a more sustained decline. End comment. SOBEL