UNCLAS TEGUCIGALPA 002301

SIPDIS

STATE FOR DRL, DRL/PHD, INL, INL/LP, AND DS
STATE FOR WHA/CEN AND WHA/PPC
STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CEN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PHUM PGOV KJUS KCRM SNAR ASEC HO
SUBJECT: HONDURAN MINISTER OF PUBLIC SECURITY CLAIMS MURDER
RATE HAS DECLINED IN TWO MAIN CITIES SINCE ANTI-GANG LAW
PASSED

REF: A. TEGUCIGALPA 1904

B. TEGUCIGALPA 1938

C. TEGUCIGALPA 2081


1. Although still exceptionally high (ref B), according to
Minister of Public Security (MOPS) Oscar Alvarez September
23, the murder rate in Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula
declined approximately 24 percent since the passage of
anti-gang legislation in early August (ref A). (Note: As
reported in ref B, the methodology used to collect murder
statistics varies between different government agencies (as
well as NGOs) which leads to significant discrepancies. End
Note.)


2. According to MOPS Alvarez, since the new anti-gang law
came into effect 222 people have been arrested. Of those, 56
percent have been detained for prosecution while the
remaining 44 percent have been freed. MOPS Alvarez indicated
to DCM that the GOH was targeting gang leaders while
attempting to convince the rank-and-file to abandon the gangs.


3. While MOPS Alvarez is reporting declining murder rates,
Casa Alianza (a child advocacy NGO that tracks the murder of
children and youth) states that children and youth murder
rates have remained constant, except for a decline in July.
Casa Alianza also attributed only 16 percent of the 64 youth
and children murders in August to gang members, while 80
percent still have no identified killer.


4. COMMENT: Personal security remains the number one
concern of the average Honduran and the passage of anti-gang
legislation was extremely popular. Popular sentiment, and
the GOH, tend to blame gangs for the scourge of violence that
has gripped the country. This, however, is a debatable
conclusion. If a significant decline in the overall murder
rate proves to be more than a short-term phenomenon, it will
go a long way toward giving credence to GOH assertions that
gangs are to blame for most of the violence. END COMMENT.
Palmer