HONDURAN TEXTILE INDUSTRY DOWNTURN HIGHLIGHTS USITC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 001686

SIPDIS

PASS TO USITC FOR D.F. LEAHY
STATE PASS USTR FOR CENTAM/CARIB DIRECTOR
STATE FOR EB/TPP/MTA/IPC

E.O.12958: N/A
TAGS: ETRD EINV EIND KTEX HO
SUBJECT: HONDURAN TEXTILE INDUSTRY DOWNTURN HIGHLIGHTS USITC
CARRIBEAN BASIN INVESTMENT SURVEY

REF: SECSTATE 141419


1. Post submits the following report in response to reftel
request for the biennial report of the U.S. International
Trade Commission (USITC) on the Caribbean Basin Economic
Recovery Act (CBERA),as required by section 215(a) of the
CBERA.


2. Summary: The slowdown and sluggish recovery of the U.S.
economy during 2001 and 2002 continue to have a depressing
effect on the Honduran maquila sector, and the future is
clouded by fears of being unable to compete with China and
other Asian producers after quotas are removed in 2005.
While CBTPA benefits have been crucial to the establishment
of the maquila industry in Honduras, the industry is now
hoping for improved market access and rules of origin under
CAFTA to provide opportunity for future growth. During the
period covered by this survey, total investment in the
sector increased, passing 1.5 billion in 2002, but total
employment in the industry fell by 15 percent from 2000 to

2002. In 2002, 13 maquilas closed in Honduras as a result
of the slowdown in the U.S. economy and management problems.
Of those 13 companies, eight were U.S. companies. End
summary.

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Honduran Maquila Association Statistics
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3. The Honduran Maquila Association (AHM) is an active
industry advocacy group based in the North Coast city of San
Pedro Sula. It represents 217 (roughly 90 percent) of the
apparel assembly operations in Honduras, and is the primary
source of statistical information for this industry. Rather
than attempting to collect data directly from individual
companies, as we did two years ago with very incomplete
results, we have this year relied on statistics from the
AHM. Investment statistics for 2002 are still preliminary
and incomplete, but do provide a general picture.


4. Investment: According to AHM records, in 2002, the
maquila industry totaled just over USD 1.56 billion of
accumulated investment, up from 1.421 billion in 2001 and
1.237 billion in 2000. A detailed breakdown of investment
by country of origin was not available; however, U.S.
companies own 40 percent of the maquilas in Honduras.
Honduran companies are the next largest owner with 31
percent of all operations, followed by companies from Korea
with 15 percent, Hong Kong with 4 percent and Taiwan with 2
percent. Total accumulated foreign investment in the sector
was roughly USD 830 million in 2002, up from USD 750 million
in 2001 and USD 650 million in 2000. The AHM predicts
investment growth of ten percent per year, which would bring
total accumulated investment in the industry to USD 2.08
billion by 2005. Note: Four knitting operations and several
investments in full package apparel operations were
initiated during this period in response to enhancements
included in the U.S. program. End note.


5. The Central Bank reports that new FDI in Honduras in
2002 totaled USD 219 million, of which USD 76 million (35
percent) was in the maquila industry. This is down from USD
296 million of FDI in 2001, of 101 million (34 percent) was
in the maquila industry.


6. Employment: Employment in the industry has been in
decline, from 126,000 employees in 2000, to 110,083 in 2001,
to 107,398 in 2002, a 15 percent drop over two years. This
decrease occurred despite the estimated creation of 10,000
new jobs from 2001 to 2002. AHM also estimates that the
industry supports 535,000 direct dependents (assuming a
ratio of five dependents to every one worker) and 1.07
million supplier and service beneficiaries (based on a ten-
to-one ratio). In 2002, women comprised 67 percent of the
maquila workforce, down slightly from 72 percent in 2000, as
the diminishing stigma of working in apparel assembly
factories leads to increasing male participation.


7. Thirteen maquilas closed in 2002, though 11 new maquilas
opened during the same period. Of the 13 closings, eight
were U.S. companies, while only three of the new ventures
were U.S. originated. These numbers represent a lower
turnover rate than in 2001, when 35 maquilas closed and 30
maquilas opened in Honduras. Since 1998 there have been no
geographical restrictions for the establishment of a Free
Trade Zone (FTZ) in Honduras. Instead, any company may
apply for FTZ status so long as they are producing for
export. The companies with FTZ status are still
overwhelmingly concentrated at the north coast and near San
Pedro Sula, with some operations in Tegucigalpa.


8. Exports: In 2002, Honduras ranked as the third-largest
supplier of textiles and apparel to the U.S. market.
Honduras ranks first among Central American and CBI
countries in textile exports to the U.S. Total exports from
the Honduran maquila industry totaled USD 2.439 billion in
2002, a slight increase over previous figures of USD 2.344
billion in 2001 and 2.362 billion in 2000.


9. Note: The decline in employment and stagnation in
exports are especially striking when viewed in historical
context. From 1994-2000, the value of maquila sector
exports grew on average at a rate of 25 percent per year,
compared with just 2 percent per year from 2000 to 2002.
Likewise, during the 1990's employment in the Honduran
maquila sector enjoyed tremendous growth - from only 9,000
workers in 1990, to 55,000 in 1995, and then to its peak of
126,000 in 2000. At that time, industry officials predicted
that employment would reach 250,000 by 2005. These figures
have since been adjusted to account for the U.S. economic
downturn, which has affected the receipt of production
contracts in the Honduran maquila sector. Current estimates
place the predicted number of employees in the maquila
sector at 143,000 for the year 2005, though even this
estimate assumes (somewhat optimistically) a ten percent
annual rate of employment growth. End note.

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Industry Concerns
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10. According to AHM, CBERA makes the country more
attractive to drawback factory investment, construction and
expansion of industrial parks, and importation of tax free
textile machinery, equipment, and accessories. However the
slowdown of the U.S. economy impacts significantly the
Honduran textile and apparel sector by reducing purchase
orders and lowering revenues.


11. The future effects of the CBERA program will
undoubtedly be influenced by the results of the ongoing
negotiations for a Central American Free Trade Agreement
(CAFTA). The market access discussions represent a pivotal
topic of discussion for the Honduran economy. A key point
in the CBERA program, rules of origin, is an essential
component of the CAFTA negotiations for the maquila
industry. Under the current agreement, some maquilas cannot
obtain the U.S. components required to meet U.S. standard
requirements. For example, manufacturers of brassieres
cannot access all of the required components from U.S.
suppliers. Thus, the maquilas hope for a more flexible
rules of origin regime under CAFTA. Another problem
regarding the CBERA program is certain exclusion provisions.
The provision excluding socks was mentioned by an industry
official as a limiting factor of the CBERA program's
potential benefits.

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Comment
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12. The maquila sector's poor performance during the period
covered by this report (2001 and 2002) plainly demonstrates
the sector's dependence on the U.S. economy. No matter how
beneficial the preferences under CBERA, the sector cannot
maintain 1990's-style growth when the U.S. economy is
stagnating. Looking to the future, there are serious
industry concerns about competition with China once textile
quotas are removed in 2005. Without immediate duty free
treatment, maquila owners are concerned about their
competitiveness in a non-quota driven market. One industry
official noted the flight of factories will be a given. He
noted a conversation with a prominent client who commented
that the company would transfer at least 30 percent of its
business to Asia if the CAFTA agreement does not provide a
sufficiently attractive incremental market access, to allow
the industry in Honduras to compete with Asia. Proximity to
the U.S. is important, but it is not enough. End comment.

PALMER