HONDURAN ECON HIGHLIGHTS: MARCH AND APRIL 2003

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 TEGUCIGALPA 001169 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR EB, DRL/IL, WHA/EPSC, AND WHA/CEN USDOC FOR 3134/USFCD/IOI/WH/RD/DLUTTER USDOC FOR 4320/IEF/WH/OMCB USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/EJAFFEE GUATEMALA FOR COMMATT DTHOMPSON AND AGAH FCOOLIDGE DOL FOR ILAB STATE PLEASE PASS TO USAID, OPIC, EXIM, USTR STATE PLEASE PASS TO USED IDB, USED WB, USED IMF E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN ETRD ENRG EINV EAIR ELAB PGOV HO SUBJECT: HONDURAN ECON HIGHLIGHTS: MARCH AND APRIL 2003 REFS: A) TEGUCIGALPA 00865 B) TEGUCIGALPA 00606 C) TEGUCIGALPA 00652 TOPICS: MACROECONOMIC ISSUES GDP Growth in 2003 Lempira Devaluation Rise in Inflation Honduran Congress Approves New Agricultural Law Honduran Congress Adopts New Fiscal Package GOH Increases Minimum Wage Base TRADE Coffee Woes in Exports and Prices Nicaraguan National Assembly Temporarily Suspends Tariff INVESTMENT Honduran Bid of Mobile Telephone Service Sol Air to Commence Daily Service to El Salvador FOREIGN AID IDB and Central American Bank of Economic Integration Loans MACROECONOMIC ISSUES -------------- GDP Growth in 2003 -------------- ¶1. (U) The Central Bank of Honduras expects the GDP to increase by 3.0 to 3.5 percent in 2003. It grew by 2.0 percent in 2002, which was lower than the increases of 2.7 and 4.8 percent in 2001 and 2000, respectively. The Bank expects the GDP to reach more than 121 billion lempiras (USD 7.03 billion),a 21 billion lempira (USD 1.2 billion) increase from the 2002 GDP of 100 billion lempiras (USD 5.89 billion). The expected GDP growth is being attributed to a recuperation of traditional exports and the anticipation of increased profits from the telecommunication, electricity, housing, agriculture and livestock sectors. -------------- Lempira Devaluation -------------- ¶2. (U) From January to March, the lempira devalued by 1.3 percent, less than the trimester of the previous years devaluation of 1.7 percent. In nominal terms this year's devaluation equals 22 centavos, while the past year registered 28 centavos. -------------- Rise in Inflation -------------- ¶3. (U) The Central Bank of Honduras registered a 1.3 percent increase for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in February, which is higher than the 1.1 percent increase from February 2002. ;January's CPI registered a .8 percent increase, which is higher than the .3 percent increase from January 2003. The rising inflation has been attributed to the increase in the price of electricity, water, and fuel, which contributed .3 points to the percentage of the February CPI. Higher educational cost was the most influential factor in February's CPI increase and contributed .4 points to the percentage. -------------- -- Honduran Congress Approves New Agricultural Law -------------- -- ¶4. (SBU) The Honduran National Congress approved on April 23 an agricultural debt relief program (called the Agricultural Sector Financial Strengthening Law). This law replaced the agricultural credit laws enacted in previous years that were deemed to be ineffective in dealing with the debt arrears of the agricultural sector and too costly for the government if they were to be implemented. The stated purpose of the new law, proposed by the Executive Branch, is to resolve the agricultural debt crisis for some 13,600 Honduran farmers by providing debt forgiveness, rescheduling of the existing debt, and providing new credit. The law will also help the private banking system because it pays off much of the bad agricultural debt held by the banks (although in the form of low-yielding long-term government bonds),and attempts to protect banks against future financial agricultural losses by requiring farmers to pay for crop insurance. ¶5. (SBU) This law creates a trust fund of up to 4.0 billion lempiras (USD 235.3 million) in FONAPROVI (the government's second tier development bank) to finance this agricultural debt- relief program over ten years. The law legislates that the government will forgive the entire debt of farmers who owe banks less than 50,000 lempiras (USD 2,941). In addition, the government will forgive 50 percent of the debt of farmers who owe banks more than this amount, up to a maximum of 4.0 million lempiras (USD 235.3 million). These farmers' debts will be paid by having the government provide 1.7 billion lempiras (USD 100 millon) in low-yield long-term government bonds to the creditor banks over a period of ten years. The yearly government payment to the banks, including interest payments, is a declining amount, starting with an initial payment of 347 million lempiras (USD 20.4 million) in 2003, which has already been included in this year's national budget. The remaining 2.3 billion lempiras (USD 133 million) to be allocated to the trust fund will be used to reschedule the remaining 50 percent of the farmers' debt arrears so that the banks can issue discounted new loans to these farmers at interest rates of 8.725 percent for a maximum ten year term. The GOH has estimated the total fiscal cost of the consolidated package of assistance at USD 133 million over 10 years (0.15 percent of the yearly GDP). ¶6. (SBU) In addition, this new law set off a firestorm of criticism in the press, because the President of Congress and a number of other politically influential individuals were listed as potential beneficiaries of this law. These individuals' interests include ownership and/or business partnerships in agricultural enterprises that are highly indebted to banks. Several of these individuals are also shareholders in banking institutions that will be compensated for bad agricultural loans made to agricultural producers. The law will become effective upon President Maduro's signature and its publication in the Gaceta. -------------- Honduran Congress Adopts New Fiscal Package -------------- ¶7. (SBU) On April 2, the Honduran National Congress adopted its second fiscal package of tax measures (called the Law of Tax Equity). The stated purpose of this package is to expand the tax base, reduce chronic budget deficits, move the GOH towards an IMF agreement, and eliminate a number of special tax exemptions. The GOH's target had been an annual revenue increase of 3.5 billion lempiras (USD 200 million)- of which 2 billion lempiras (USD 118 million) would be collected from the remaining months of 2003. ¶8. (SBU) Key provisions in the fiscal package include reducing income tax exemptions for bonuses and representation expenses for individuals with an annual income above 600,000 lempiras (USD 35,294),unifying the corporate tax at a rate of 25 percent of net taxable income and reducing the number of products exempt from sales tax (from 800 to about 200 mostly foodstuffs, pharmaceuticals, books and publications and school supplies). On the expenditure side, provisions include freezing wages for public employees not covered by collective bargaining agreements and canceling 60 percent of government positions that were vacant on December 31, except in education, health and security. The Congress discarded three important tax measures from the original government proposal and increased the sales tax on tobacco products and alcoholic beverages (to 15 percent) to compensate for this lost revenue. IMF sources are skeptical that the total revenue from the measures will be as high as the GOH's projections. (See ref A for further information on the tax measures). -------------- GOH Increases Minimum Wage Base -------------- ¶9. (U) On March 21, the GOH officially increased the minimum wage base by nine percent for most workers with retroactive payments starting from January 1. Only a small number of workers, mostly in companies with fewer than 15 employees received the 12 percent increase that the press was reporting. The minimum wage decision was devolved to President Maduro after bilateral negotiations between the three labor confederations and the business associations ended without an agreement. Congress is also examining possible legislation for the creation of a USD 88 million workers fund that will provide money to the unemployed for living expenses and other necessities. ¶10. (U) The nine percent increase has garnered discontentment from representatives of the business community. The National Association of Industries (ANDI) has been one of the most vocal groups. They have stated that the increase in the minimum wage will force businesses to increase the prices of their products, which will lead to a rise in inflation. The increase will occur because businesses have already set the prices of their products based on a minimum wage increase of no more than 8 percent. ANDI has also stated that the decision of the GOH was not based on the needs of the nation, but on the need to gain the political support of labor confederations and their members. TRADE -------------- Coffee Woes in Exports and Prices -------------- ¶11. (U) According to the Honduran Institute of Coffee, coffee exports in 2003 will amount to 2.8 million sacks, a decrease of 18 percent from last year's 3.4 million. From the period of October 2002 to April 2003, exports amounted to 2,007,578 sacks that represented an income of USD 115 million. The increase in international coffee prices of USD 8.16 from USD 49.54 to USD 57.70 was being looked upon as a possible savior for the coffee industry whose production and revenues have been declining. Industry analysts are expecting the numbers to continue their descent as the year moves ahead. -------------- -------------- Nicaraguan National Assembly Temporarily Suspends Tariff -------------- -------------- ¶12. (U) The Nicaraguan National Assembly's March 11, temporary suspension of its 35 percent tariff on Honduran goods put an end to the long-standing dispute between the two nations. The Nicaraguan National Assembly implemented the tariff, called the "Patriotic Tax" in December of 1999, after Honduras ratified a treaty with Colombia recognizing a Nicaraguan-Colombian maritime dispute as a Colombian possession. In March, after waiting three years for Nicaraguan legislators to repeal the tariff, the Honduran National Congress decided it was time to implement retaliatory tariffs on Nicaragua. With the National Assembly's temporary suspension of the tariff the Honduran National Congress cut short their efforts to enact retaliatory tariffs. Under the direction of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Honduran companies are now in the process of restoring Honduran exports to Nicaragua. If all goes well Honduran exports to Nicaragua can accumulate between USD 60 to 70 million and should continue to increase in the future. (Full report in ref B and additional background information in ref C). INVESTMENT -------------- Honduran Bid of Mobile Telephone Service -------------- ¶13. (U) On April 25, CONATEL (Honduras' equivalence of the FCC) announced the awarding of a 25-year PCS contract to the Honduran- Swedish consortium Megatel-EMCE. Megatel-EMCE's bid of USD 7.1 million won it the contract over two other bidding companies Entel of Chile and Bellsouth Honduras. Working under band b, Megatel-EMCE plans to install more than 50,000 lines within the next year to provide nationwide and international cellular service. Megatel-EMCE will also provide transmission of video, data, and photos through its lines. Megatel-EMCE plans to commence service towards the end of this year and is stating that it will offer competitive prices (relative to existing wireless operator, Celtel) to consumers. -------------- --- Sol Air to Commence Daily Service to El Salvador -------------- --- ¶14. (U) Starting June 11, the Honduran air carrier Sol Air will begin daily flights (except for Saturday) to San Salvador. Sol Air had originally applied for a five-year contract to operate in El Salvador, but instead Salvadoran aviation officials granted them a contract for one-year (until March 31, 2004). Sol Air has been applying for access to the Salvadorian market since 2002, but had been consistently denied by Salvadorian officials. In March, this became a highly contentious issue when, after meeting with Salvadoran aviation officials for almost two years, the president of Sol Air, Ricardo Martinez, requested that the GOH cancel Salvadoran commercial airlines entrance privileges into Honduras. It is widely believed that officials of TACA, an El Salvadoran air carrier, were highly influential in convincing Salvadoran officials to deny Sol Air access. FOREIGN AID -------------- -------------- IDB and Central American Bank of Economic Integration Loans -------------- -------------- ¶15. (U) The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) approved a USD 20 million loan to the GOH for its peace and coexistence project. The project's objective is to reduce crime and violence among youth in the Valle de Sula region, a region that has some of the highest crime statistics in the nation. The program will provide social services to youth such as educational assistance, training, outreach and counseling services, prevention campaigns, and the reformation of gang members. ¶16. (U) The Central American Bank of Economic Integration (CABEI) approved a USD 22.5 loan to the GOH to complete the last portion of the highway, which will link Puerto Cortes to the Guatemalan border. The latest loan will bring the CABEI's total contribution to this project to USD 45.3 million. Palmer