DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #11: PRD PRIMARY SLIPS TO 2004

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 SANTO DOMINGO 007490

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR WHA AND DRL
NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON
LABOR FOR ILAB
TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: DR PGOV
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #11: PRD PRIMARY SLIPS TO 2004

REF: A. (A) SANTO DOMINGO 7395 (NOTAL)


B. (B) SANTO DOMINGO 7132


1. (SBU) Following is number 11 in our Dominican presidential
election series:

PRD PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY: SHOW POSTPONED AGAIN, CAST UNCERTAIN

As foreseen in Ref A, President Mejia's three challengers in
the PRD presidential primary that had been rescheduled for
December 21 pulled out, amid charges that the President had
tampered with the party's membership roster and was using
public resources to campaign and buy votes. Mejia published
a letter December 17 firmly dismissing his three challengers'
demand that he quit the race for the PRD nomination (see text
below). On December 18, the organizing committee for the
primary announced it would be postponed until January 18, and
Mejia quickly agreed to the new date. But one of our
contacts has confirmed that Mejia's PPH faction decided not
to allow the challengers to pool their primary votes against
his and or accept a 50-percent-plus-1 majority requirement
for the winner, as previously agreed.

These moves sent the challengers -- Vice President Milagros
Ortiz-Bosch, Tourism Secretary Rafael "Fello" Subervi, and
Enmanuel Esquea -- scrambling for an alternative game plan.
Late on November 18 they announced formation of a committee
of nine advisers -- three for each pre-candidate -- to devise
a method for choosing a single condidate among them. They
deferred any reconsideration of their decision not to run in
the primary with Mejia. Government-owned daily "Listin
Diario" suggested the three might hold their own separate
primary. A Subervi adviser told us the three would remain
aloof from the Mejia primary and select their own candidate
among themselves, based on a polling sample of PRD members.
Our contact also suggested Congress might change the
electoral law to permit a political party to field more than
one presidential candidate.

Subervi met this week with PRD party president Hatuey De
Camps, who was nominated by a rump PRD primary December 7
(Ref B). An adviser to Subervi told us an effort was
underway to convince De Camps to renounce his own anti-Mejia
candidacy and join forces with the three.

Meanwhile, the Central Election Board (JCE) continued meeting
daily to decide which of the two primary elections -- De
Camps' on December 7 or Mejia's now postponed until January
-- was legitimately convened according to the PRD's statutes.
The JCE is examining documentation submitted in support of
both sides and his publicly promised a decision before
Christmas. A rumored possible way out of this politically
thorny issue for the JCE judges: Declare both primaries null
and void, and force the PRD's scrapping presidential
contenders to reconsider their behavior.

The PRD's main foe in the May 16 election, former President
Leonel Fernandez (PLD),appeared stronger than ever against
the fragmented PRD. A preference poll of the general
electorate released December 19 gave him 63 percent versus 15
percent for any PRD candidate including Mejia.


2. (U) Following is our informal translation of President
Mejia's reply to the three challengers:

(Begin text)

Santo Domingo de Guzman
December 16, 2003

Comrades
Milagros Ortiz Bosch,
Rafael Subervi Bonilla,
Emmanuel Esquea Guerrero,

Distinguished Comrades:

I received and read attentively your communication of
yesterday. My decision to opt for the Dominican
Revolutionary Party's grass roots and seek the presidential
candidacy for the 2004 elections has been the result of my
sincere conviction that I have the determination, the popular
support and the commitment to govern on behalf of the needy
majority of this country, and not exclusively for the
minority that has everything.

My aspiration has a legal basis in the General Statutes of
the Party, which do not prohibit presidential re-election,
and in our Constitution's article 49, which expressly permits
it.

Convinced of the democratic practices that our unforgettable
leader Dr. Jose Francisco Pena Gomez taught us, I have
insisted that the Party's supporters among the people should
decide freely, without back-room deals.

Despite the many intemperate attacks against me, in order to
show tolerance, democratic spirit and party unity, I reached
an agreement with you November 12 to hold a Convention in
which you could pool your votes against me -- all against one.

In addition, the agreement requires me to obtain more than 50
percent of the votes, knowing that the General Statutes of
the PRD stipulate a simple majority for internal elections.

I also agreed to allow your delegates to the Primary
Organizing Committees and the polling sites to be selected
individually, even through I knew that they would act in a
bloc against my candidacy.

Then I unhesitatingly agreed to your request to postpone the
Primary which had originally been scheduled for last Sunday,
December 14.

The arguments in your letter focuse on the printed membership
list for the Primary.

As you will recall, niether I nor my supporters wanted to add
new voters to the membership list, but I went along with that
to please you.

The checking of the list is an essentially technical task,
which should be managed by the responsible and prestigious
Primary Organizing Committee. From the beginning I
instructed our technicians to cooperate with you on this,
with the understanding that the audit of the list was
approved by the technical representatives of the
pre-candidates and accepted as correct and valid for the
primary process. The printing of the membership list in the
next few hours will be essential for the primary to be held
on Sunday, December 21.

I don't know whether you fully understand the situation of
the country: we are faced with a conspiracy of special
interest groups that want to block the modernization of our
economy, the financial system, the establishment of a social
security system, democratization of housing, and equitable
distribution of public expenditures: measures that benefit
the poor, small account holders, the entire Nation. For this
reason they want to oust the PRD, which is the only party
that can ensure governability.

It was this entire challenge that led me to run for
re-election: If I don't defend the performance of my
administration, which is confronting those special interests,
no one will defend it.

I'm telling you this because you don't seem to be aware of it.

You've cast the debate in the party in terms of re-election
or no re-election, and not in terms of people's real
interest: to be able to work, advance, free themselves from
the dictates of a powerful minority that wants to enslave
them.

You don't appear to understand.

You ask me to renounce my aspirations; but you say not one
word about what the country can expect from you to deal with
the situation that we face: the continuation of a profoundly
unjust society, in which poverty and misery have reached
levels incompatible with justice and human dignity.

But you are asking even more of me: that because I'm going to
win, I should quit.

This is the strangest request I've ever known.

I will not renounce my legitimate rights as a party member
and under the Constitution.

I will not abdicate the responsibility that I have assumed to
my followers in the Party.

I intend to continue fulfilling that responsibility.

You may use whichever PRD membership list you find
appropriate.

The most draconian conditions.

The most inequitable rules.

I'll win because the Party and the Dominican people want
justice. Against the power elite, they want justice.

My fraternal greetings.

(Signed)
Hipolito Mejia

(End text)



3. (U) Drafted: Bainbridge Cowell.


HERTELL