VICE PRESIDENT FAULTS PRESIDENT MEJIA, ADDRESSES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SANTO DOMINGO 005390 SIPDIS STATE PASS AID E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2013 TAGS: DR EAID PGOV PINR PREL SUBJECT: VICE PRESIDENT FAULTS PRESIDENT MEJIA, ADDRESSES CAMPAIGN ISSUES Classified By: Charge Lisa Kubiske for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Dominican Vice President and candidate for president Milagros Ortiz-Bosch told DCM Kubiske September 26 that President Mejia cannot win re-election next May because of his unpopularity and voter opposition to a second consecutive term. She agreed with Mejia's vision and policies, but faulted him, in her view, for lack of strategy, failure to communicate his administration's considerable accomplishments, and poor economic management. She portrayed herself as clean (uncorrupted) and statesmanlike, in contrast to other candidates in the field such as Leonel Fernandez of the PLD. With respect to electricity, Ortiz-Bosch said the GODR would seek assistance from expert consultants on how to conduct a tender to attract strong bidders, including from the United States, to invest in two distribution companies recently returned to government hands. End summary. End summary. Unpopularity of President Mejia - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) GODR Vice President and presidential candidate Milagros Ortiz-Bosch (PRD),at a luncheon hosted on September 26 by DCM Kubiske with several of Ortiz-Bosch's political advisers and emboffs, asserted that President Mejia could not win his controversial bid for reelection in May 2004. According to Ortiz-Bosch, Mejia -- beset by the Dominican Republic's pressing economic problems and accusations of mismanagement and corruption -- lacks the necessary public support. Moreover, voters and especially the PRD rank and file reject presidential reelection, regardless of candidate, even though the PRD-dominated Congress amended the constitution last year to allow this. She said that a poll commissioned by the PRD and conducted by a US firm in mid-September found that 79 percent of voters reject Mejia's reelection, while only 18 percent support it. Also, 55 percent expressed disapproval of presidential reelection in principle. The PRD has commissioned a second poll on these issues. Quest for PRD Nomination - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) The Vice President stressed the importance of holding the already announced "plebiscite" of PRD members October 12, organized at the behest of the seven would-be candidates challenging President Mejia for the party's nomination, so as to test rank-and-file sentiment on the reelection issue. She said the plebiscite would be in the tradition of the PRD as "the most democratic political party in Latin America." The results of the plebiscite and the polls would then be aired at a proposed PRD nominating convention November 2. Asked how the fractious party could win the election, Ortiz-Bosch expressed confidence that unity would be achieved through internal negotiations, and she dismissed President Mejia's call for arbitration by the Central Electoral Board (JCE). She predicted that if the PRD unifies behind a single alternative candidate, its poll numbers will immediately gain 8-10 percent over Mejia's low approval ratings. Mejia's Shortcomings - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) Ortiz-Bosch faulted President Mejia for poor economic management, lack of strategy, and failure to communicate with the public on the administration's considerable accomplishments in agriculture and rural development, labor, tourism, education, environment, water and sanitation, and housing. She said she agrees with Mejia's political vision and his policies, but believes he has not followed through on campaign promises and has not allocated enough resources to human development programs. She claimed the local press has felt "intimidated" for the past several months and has practiced self-censorship, including restricting publication of unspecified opinion poll data. Acknowledging the impact of external events (9/11, a sluggish world economy, oil price increases),the Vice President nonetheless accused Mejia of failing to manage what he could control locally, such as the massive BANINTER bank fraud and problems in the energy sector. ¶5. (C) Ortiz-Bosch emphasized the need for a long-term government strategy, carried out through a multi-year budget with annual performance targets. It would give priority to investments in human capital through education, health, and social services. The government should do more to promote citizen participation in the political process, with an effective communication program that would go beyond President Mejia's near-monopoly of statements to the media. Official pressures for media self-censorship should cease, she said. The Vice President commented that Dominican society over the years has become better informed, more pro-democracy, and less tolerant of behind-the-scenes manipulation. Main Adversary - Leonel Fernandez - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) Asked how the PRD would attack its main adversary in the coming elections, former president (1996-2000) Leonel Fernandez of the Dominican Liberation Party (PLD),the Vice President said she would take him to task for having concentrated 80 percent of government expenditures in the capital city of Santo Domingo and the second city of Santiago and having provided only 20 percent to the rest of the country. She noted that the Mejia administration had reversed that ratio and restored a more balanced allocation. One of Ortiz-Bosch's advisers said that if she were to become the PRD candidate, she could accuse Fernandez of being corrupt, but he could not credibly make any such allegations against her. Progress on USAID Projects - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (C) The Vice President, who is also State Secretary of Education, commented that a civil service reform for public school teachers, including unified benefits and higher salaries, was nearly complete. She expressed appreciation for USAID collaboration in publicizing essential information of the Secretariat of Education on a world-wide web page, enhancing transparency. ¶8. (C) Ortiz-Bosch, as chairperson of a committee to implement the new Dominican criminal procedures code, said that she had requested a budget for implementation beginning in 2004 and had asked the Justice Secretariat to help her convene regular working sessions of the committee. She also reaffirmed her commitment to justice reform, dating from her years as a senator when she had worked on a reform bill. Priorities in her view include more training for judges and courtroom prosecutors ("fiscales"),inter alia to reduce their susceptibility to corruption, and a big increase in number of public defenders. ¶9. (C) Anticipating the GODR's renationalization of two electricity distribution companies on October 1, Ortiz-Bosch raised the urgency of announcing a new tender of the companies' shares for private purchase. She said the GODR would seek assistance from expert consultants on how to conduct the tender so as to attract the best possible bidders, from the United States and other countries. Comment - - - - ¶10. (C) The Vice President is walking a tightrope, being both a senior member of President Mejia's administration and one of his most credible challengers for the PRD nomination for the presidency. She appears nonetheless committed to the PRD plebiscite and November 2 national convention, which Mejia has rejected in favor of a national convention (without plebiscite) on November 23. ¶11. (C) Mejia's rivals in the PRD fear that his expected use -- or misuse -- of government resources to promote his candidacy and his control of the upper levels of the party will enable him to have his way, dooming the PRD to defeat in the election. This is a plausible, though not inevitable, scenario. Were his PRD challengers to unite behind a single candidate, they might be able to thwart his bid for the nomination. But they have not yet shown the will to do so. In any case, it is premature to predict what will happen in the election next May. Mejia has announced that according to a poll conducted o/a September 20, the PRD had pulled ahead of the PLD in voter preferences by a 5-percentage-point margin. ¶12. (C) With regard to the Vice President's desire to contract expert consultants on energy sector privatization, Embassy is exploring possibilities with the World Bank, IDB, and AID. Bio Note - - - - - ¶13. (U) The first Dominican woman to assume presidential duties, Ortiz-Bosch has acted as president for 135 days during Mejia's 38 trips abroad and, along with Minister of Tourism Rafael "Fello" Subervi, is widely recognized as one of the most potent alternatives for the PRD nomination. KUBISKE