PLD PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CONCERNS IN THE

UNCLAS SANTO DOMINGO 005003 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR WHA/CAR (MCISAAC) E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV DR SUBJECT: PLD PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CONCERNS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REF: SANTO DOMINGO 4915 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Leaders of the leading opposition party, the Dominican Liberation Party (PLD),have raised with us three concerns about upcoming presidential elections in the Dominican Republic: doubts about the impartiality of the Junta Central Electoral (JCE ) Central Election Commission), alleged interference of the military in the campaign, and the need for international election observers. The politicians, in a meeting September 8, spoke with one voice and appeared professional and well organized, in contrast to the current fractious behavior of the ruling PRD and the continuing schism in the opposition PRSC. PLD is confident that its candidate, former President Leonel Fernandez, will win the election. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) PLD Secretary General Reinaldo Pared Perez and three other top party officials told EcoPol Counselor and poloffs that PLD candidate, former president (1996-2000) Leonel Fernandez has excellent prospects for the May 2004 presidential election. The leaders accused the Central Election Commission (JCE) of being biased in favor of the ruling Dominican Revolutionary Party (PRD). They said that the PRD has six of the nine judges on the commission and controls each JCE chamber, one charged with overseeing election logistics and the other responsible for resolving disputes or allegations of electoral irregularities. The PLD is demanding non-partisan oversight of both branches. (Comment: The JCE has told us the administrative preparations are on schedule, but much remains to be done. End comment.) ¶3. (SBU) PLD campaign coordinator Francisco Javier Garcia Fernandez denounced incidents of military involvement in the campaign, contrary to the Dominican constitution. He showed photos of uniformed soldiers removing PLD campaign signs and flags, allegedly upon the order of a senior officer linked to the Dominican army commander, Chief of Staff Radhames Zorrilla Ozuna, a presidential appointee. The PLD officials cited recent political statements by the army and navy chiefs. Garcia speculated that the military could become involved in the election at President Mejia,s request, along the lines of the tactics of President Chavez in Venezuela. (Comment: This was hyperbole. There is no indication the Dominican Republic is headed down the Venezuelan path. End comment.) ¶4. (SBU) Secretary General Pared and his colleagues requested the Embassy's assistance in securing international election observers for the election next May. They advocated an observer presence as early as six months ahead, rather than the usual few days in advance of the balloting ("last week, if possible"). They asserted that the sooner the observers arrive, the less likely it would be that President Mejia would use questionable or even illegal tactics to win. ¶5. (SBU) Despite their concerns, the PLD officials were confident that Leonel Fernandez would win the elections. Garcia cited voter preference polls showing Fernandez with 56 pct to 62 pct regardless of who runs against him as the PRD candidate. In one campaign scenario, with the third party PRSC supporting the PRD candidate, Fernandez would garner 82 pct of the vote. ¶6. (SBU) PLD officials are concerned that Mejia will misappropriate government resources, especially money, personnel and vehicles, in order to favor his faction of the PRD. Officials also raised the possibility of violent demonstrations during the campaign. Any violence, the PLD officials believe, would be due to the country's economic woes and dissatisfaction with the electoral process. ¶7. (SBU) COMMENT. The PLD is a well-organized party, with a coherent and clear message, and Fernandez ) whose previous tenure is remembered as a time of economic prosperity - is a strong candidate. In contrast, the ruling but fractious PRD continues to argue over how to choose its presidential candidate. (Septel will report on the Ambassador's meeting with Fernandez.) The PLD's election concerns are valid but probably overdrawn, provided the JCE allows access to a newly constituted election oversight committee of civic leaders (reftel) and authorizes international election observers at the proper time. Septel will report on JCE activities. END COMMENT. HERTELL