YEMEN'S ECONOMY: THINKING BEYOND OIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SANAA 000646

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/31/2004
TAGS: ECON ETRD ELAB YM ECON COM
SUBJECT: YEMEN'S ECONOMY: THINKING BEYOND OIL

Classified By: Political/Economic Officer Jill E. Hutchings, for reason
s 1.5 B. and D.


1. (C) Summary: A forthcoming World Bank sectoral analysis
of fish, transportation, tourism and labor markets is a
potential road map for donor projects and steps that the ROYG
must take in order to diversify and strengthen Yemen's
economy. The Diagnostic Trade Integration Study examines
four potential sources of revenue that could make up the
difference of a projected 30% loss to GDP when oil reserves
run dry in the next twenty years. End Summary.



2. (C) The Integrated Framework Program of the World Bank
will present to the Ministry of Industry and Trade this month
a Diagnostic Trade Integration Study on four sectors of the
Yemeni economy: fisheries, transportation, tourism and labor.
The following is a summary of the report's major findings on
the four sectors with information about under-reported
aspects of the Yemeni economy.

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FISHERIES
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3. (C) The fishing industry is the second largest export for
the ROYG behind oil, employing 42,000 people and supporting
250,000 dependents. In 2001, the ROYG earned $70 million in
revenue from the export of fish, contributing 2% to GDP.
While there are several prospects for expanding this market,
the report warns against rapid expansion that would deplete
fish stocks.


4. (C) According to the study, Yemeni fish exports are unable
to receive adequate prices in foreign markets because
fishermen are unable to maintain the quality of their
product. Inadequate storage on boats, transport delays, and
poor quality control all contribute to a decline in the price
exporters receive for Yemeni fish. The most pointed example
of this problem is the fact that most of the fish bound for
European markets is shipped out of Sanaa, a four to six hour
drive from most ports. Once in Sanaa, exporters rely on
Yemenia Airlines, whose flight schedule is unreliable and
ill-equipped to ship large stocks of frozen fish. In
response, the World Bank is investing in a project to upgrade
al-Rayyan airport near Mukallah to allow for more direct
shipment routes from Yemen.


5. (C) The report also encourages the ROYG to establish a
Fisheries Council to effectively monitor fish resources
because, according to the World Bank, the Ministry of
Fisheries is not adequately staffed or resourced to handle
its required role. The ROYG is considering, and the Bank
recommends, privatization of the General Corporation for Fish
Services and Marketing (CFC),that manages landing slips and
fish auctions, as a way to raise the standards of quality
control and fish processing.

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Transportation
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6. (C) Yemen has one of the lowest percentages of paved roads
in the World (comparable to Niger and Rwanda); therefore
enhancement of the transport sector is vital to broader
economic development. The sectoral analysis also notes that
80% of the Yemeni population live in isolated, rural
communities and that road injuries cost the ROYG 1-3% of GDP.
According to the report, women are not attending school and
entering the workforce because the existing public
transportation is not considered appropriate for their use.


7. (C) The chapter on transportation also strongly recommends
that the ROYG improve port management. Such improvements are
necessary because there is increasing competition for the
Port of Aden. The port managers of Jebel Ali in Dubai are
beginning to invest heavily in Djibouti, adding more
competition for the Port of Aden, which has been already seen
much of its traffic move to Jeddah and Sallalah after the
October 2002 attack on the French tanker Limburg.

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Tourism
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8. (C) Tourism in Yemen has vast potential and many hurdles,
including inadequate hotels, few flights from European
markets, and fears about security. Nevertheless the sector
may still become a significant contribution to the Yemeni
economy. The tourism sectoral analysis states that in 2001,
tourism accounted for 1.7% of GDP and employed 14,000 people.
After September 11, 2001, tourism decreased by 80%. The
biggest area identified for growth was adventure tourism.
The World Bank recommends increased investment in and
improvement of rest houses (hotels aimed at tourists) in
tourism regions, and encouraging conservation efforts which
could in turn attract more tourists.
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Labor
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9. (C) In 2001, remittances from foreign workers amounted to
1.2 billion USD, bringing in more foreign currency than oil
revenues. In 1999, for example, the report states that oil
revenue was 967 million USD. The importance of remittances
is compounded by high domestic unemployment. The 2000 five
year plan by the ROYG estimated that unemployment was around
25%, and the Yemen Center for Studies and Research estimates
that unemployment in 2000 was about 50.3 % of the labor
force. (Note: The ROYG's Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
states that the unemployment rate is about 11.5% of the labor
force.) Comment: Despite large statistical discrepancies,
clearly unemployment is a huge challenge for the ROYG. End
Comment.

10. (C) Female employment, however, continues to grow at a
rate of about ten percent a year. In 2000, there were nearly
one million females employed in Yemen. The number of female
graduates also increased by 189% in ten years with 3,759
female graduates in 2,000. The number of women registered at
universities increased by 153% in ten years to 34,994 in

2000.


11. (C) According to the report, Yemen's continued population
growth will greatly impact its prospects for continued
economic development. In 2001, 7.8 million (50%) of the
population were of working age; by 2016, 16.5 million people
will be of working age. The World Bank study recommends that
for the ROYG to find jobs for a doubled work force, it must
improve its foreign direct investment climate. Furthermore,
the study encourages the ROYG to expand agreements with other
countries to increase the number of Yemeni guest workers
employed in other countries.

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Comment
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12. (C) Comment: The Diagnostic Trade Integration Study
prepared by the World Bank for the Ministry of Industry and
Trade does not explicitly state that its goal is to find
non-oil revenue sources. However, economists are well aware
that barring any new discoveries, there is less than twenty
more years of oil output for Yemen. Planning has clearly
begun by donor agencies and the Ministry of Industry and
Trade to find new sources of revenue to compensate for the
expected loss of oil revenue, which presently accounts for
32% of Yemen's GDP. This report has already served as the
basis for some of Posts' planning on how to prioritize future
development assistance. Our contacts at the World Bank have
asked that we keep the analysis confidential until its
release at the end of April. End Comment.
HULL