S E C R E T SANAA 000359

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2013
TAGS: PTER PREL PARM ETTC YM COUNTER TERRORISM
SUBJECT: MANPADS NEA BILATERAL PLANS: YEMEN

REF: STATE 36950

Classified By: Political/Economic Officer Willeah E. Cato for Reasons 1
.5 (b,d)


1. (S/NF) Summary: Yemen has taken significant steps to
restrict the number of Man Portable Air Defense Systems
(MANPADS) available to civilians. The ROYG has invested an
estimated $30 million in a weapons buy-back program designed
to remove MANPADS, RPGs, and other weapons from the civilian
arms market. While ROYG commitment appears firm, post is
following up with Yemen's Defense Ministry to address key
questions -- including availability of resources to sustain
the buy-back effort. U.S. assistance could be important in
that regard. End summary.


2. (S/NF) The ROYG clearly shares USG concerns on the
control of MANPADS and is actively trying to remove stocks
available to the civilian population. Particularly after the
unsuccessful September 2002 shooting attack on a Hunt Oil
helicopter and the al-Qaeda attempt to shot down an Israeli
airliner in Kenya, ROYG is sensitive to the danger of a
MANPADS attack.


3. (S/NF) During the 1994 civil war a variety of heavy
weapons (antitank and MANPADS), especially those from the
former Soviet Union, were available to the general population
in large quantities. With the war's conclusion and the
government's assumption of central control, many of these
weapons (estimated in the tens of thousands) remained
unaccounted for. Countless weapons, including MANPADS, were
readily available from weapons souks and rural villages where
tribal leaders have amassed small arsenals. These stockpiles
included Strellas and Grails from Russia and the former East
bloc.


4. (S/NF) Today, both government forces and certain
civilian (especially tribal) elements are in possession of
MANPADS. MANPADS in military control are kept in armed
forces storage facilities under the direct supervision of a
line commander. Yemen's civilian population overall is
heavily armed, and ROYG's reach, although strong in Sanaa,
remains limited in many rural areas. Nevertheless increased
government regulation and the weapons buy-back program are
making a difference. New procedures are in place for
controlling the sale of MANPADS from weapons souks under
which arms dealers/purchasers must obtain a license from the
central government in order to handle MANPADS. The objective
of these ROYG programs is to remove MANPADS from the civilian
market wherever they are found.


5. (S/NF) At ROYG invitation, in late January 2003
Ambassador and DATT viewed a representative sample of 18
months of collection efforts from five collection sites.
This sample alone included over 1000 MANPADS (Stellas and
Grails) -- clear evidence of the substantive and
unprecedented action being taken by the ROYG. By eliminating
key weapons systems from the arms souks, ROYG reduces the
quantity available to potential terrorists.


6. (S/NF) Post is actively following implementation of the
buy-back program with the Ministry of Defense, as underscored
in our Mission Performance Plan. Many important questions
remain to be answered regarding the program's overall impact.
The number of MANPADS in private hands (i.e. outside the
scope of arms bazaars) is unknown, for example, as is the
extent of ongoing movement of MANPADS into/out of Yemen.
While ROYG commitment appears firm, the effectiveness of
enforcement and availability of resources sufficient to
sustain the buy-back program can only be answered over time.
However, the buy-back program could be a good investment of
U.S. funds, both to ensure the program's continuation, and to
reiterate the strength of U.S.-Yemen cooperation.

HULL