SOMALIA: AN ITALIAN NGO'S PLAN B FOR PEACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 000618 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2008 TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS ELAB SO PREL MOPS ELAB SO IT ITPGOV SUBJECT: SOMALIA: AN ITALIAN NGO'S PLAN B FOR PEACE CLASSIFIED BY: POL M C THOMAS COUNTRYMAN FOR REASON 1.5 (D) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: ANGELO MASETTI, SECRETARY OF A UNION-ORGANIZED GROUP THAT WORKS WITH SOMALIS IN ITALY, SHARED WITH POLOFF JANUARY 31 AN ALTERNATIVE VISION FOR CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ROME 00618 01 OF 02 141432Z ACHIEVING PEACE IN SOMALIA. MASETTI OPINED THAT THE CURRENT PROCESS, BASED ON COOPERATION BY WARLORDS WHO PROFIT FROM THE STATUS QUO AND COORDINATED BY STATES WITH THEIR OWN AGENDA, WAS DOOMED TO FAILURE. INSTEAD, HE ADVOCATED FORMING A STEERING COMMITTEE THAT WOULD SCRIPT A NATIONAL CONSTITUTION IN CONSULTATION WITH THE U.S., EU, AND UN, AND CONVENING CONFERENCES OF SOMALIS AT HOME AND ABROAD TO AGREE ON IT. THE PROPOSAL, WHICH THE GOI IS CONSIDERING SUPPORTING IN PART, IS IN ITS NASCENT STAGES AND MAY BE PRESENTED FORMALLY TO THE USG AS EVENTS WARRANT. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) MASETTI, WHOSE FULL-TIME JOB IS COVERING MIGRATION POLICIES FOR THE UIL LABOR CONFEDERATION, REQUESTED A MEETING WITH POLOFF TO OUTLINE HIS GROUP'S STRATEGY IN THE EVENT THAT THE CURRENT PEACE PROCESS FAILS, LIKE ITS TWELVE PREDECESSORS. MASETTI IS THE SECRETARY OF THE ITALY-SOMALIA FORUM FOR PEACE AND RECONSTRUCTION (ISF),AN NGO SPONSORED BY ITALY'S THREE MAIN TRADE UNION CONFEDERATIONS AS PART OF THEIR OUTREACH TO LOCAL IMMIGRANT COMMUNITIES. THE ISF IS A "VERY INFORMAL VOLUNTEER ORGANIZATION" WITH NO OFFICE SPACE, ACCORDING TO MASETTI. IT WAS FOUNDED IN NOVEMBER 2001 BY GIOVANNI CONSO (PRESIDENT EMERITUS OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT),GIANNI DE MICHELIS (FORMER MINISTER OF LABOR),AND RINO SERRI (FORMER SENATOR AND UNDERSECRETARY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS). COMMENT: MASETTI -- WHO IS OF ITALIAN AND SOMALI HERITAGE -- IS WELL AND FAVORABLY KNOWN TO THE EMBASSY, AND THE FOUNDERS ARE CONSIDERED TO BE CREDIBLE PEOPLE WITHOUT A PARTICULAR POLITICAL AGENDA. END COMMENT. -------------- -------------- "WE HAVE TO NEUTRALIZE THE WARLORDS" ... AND IGAD CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ROME 00618 01 OF 02 141432Z -------------- -------------- ¶3. (U) MASETTI SHARED HIS VIEW THAT A RESOLUTION OF THE PROBLEM WOULD REQUIRE THE NEUTRALIZATION OF THE WARLORDS. THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAD ERRED IN TRYING TO BUILD A SOLUTION ON WARLORD COOPERATION, FORGETTING THAT THE SOMALIS ARE OPPRESSED BY THE WARLORDS. THE PREVIOUS TWELVE CONFERENCES HAD FAILED BECAUSE "EVERYTHING WAS LEFT IN THE HANDS OF THE WARLORDS AT THE END." THERE HAD BEEN NO INTERNATIONAL MONITORING TO COMPEL DISARMAMENT OR CONTROL AID PROJECTS. AFTER THE ARTA PEACE PROCESS, THE TRANSITIONAL NATIONAL GOVERNMENT WAS LEFT TO FEND FOR ITSELF, AND IN A YEAR, IT WAS CLEAR THAT THE ACCORD HAD FAILED. ¶4. (U) FOR THEIR PART, THE WARLORDS HAD NO PLANS TO CEDE POWER TO CIVIL STRUCTURES -- QUITE THE OPPOSITE. "THE WARLORDS HAVE NO INTEREST IN PEACE AND ARE CONSTITUTIONALLY UNABLE TO MAKE PEACE. HOW CAN YOU ASK A THIEF NOT TO STEAL ANY MORE? ... THE WARLORDS STAND TO LOSE MORE THAN ANYONE FROM THE IMPLEMENTATION OF PEACE," MASETTI STATED. HE BELIEVES THAT THE WARLORDS ONLY COOPERATE IN PEACEMAKING IN ORDER TO REAP THE BENEFITS OF AID PACKAGES PROVIDED IMMEDIATELY AFTER EACH ACCORD. TO SAY THAT "POLITICAL LEADERS" ARE PRESENT AT ELDORET IS A MISNOMER, HE SAID, SINCE THESE PEOPLE ARE REALLY WARLORDS AND CLAN LEADERS, NOT POLITICIANS. LIKEWISE, WHAT REMAINED OF SOMALI CIVIL SOCIETY MUST BE SUPPORTED BUT CANNOT BE VIEWED AS REPRESENTATIVE. ¶5. (U) GIVING A MAJOR ROLE TO IGAD IS ANOTHER KEY ERROR, MASETTI ASSERTED. FIRST, IGAD MEMBERS ARE TOO WEAK TO LEAD A PEACE PROCESS. SECOND, SOME OF THEM -- KENYA, DJIBOUTI, AND CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ROME 00618 01 OF 02 141432Z ETHIOPIA -- HAVE DIVERGENT INTERESTS AND VISIONS OF THE PREFERRED OUTCOME. -------------- DIASPORA COULD BE THE SOLUTION FOR DISARMAMENT AND PEACEMAKING -------------- ¶6. (U) ACCORDING TO MASETTI, MANY OF THE POTENTIAL PROTAGONISTS IN A PEACE AGREEMENT ARE ABROAD, THOUGH HE ADMITTED THAT EVEN WITH EXILES, "WE HAVE TO BE CAREFUL, BECAUSE THE MENTALITY IS VERY FRACTIOUS," WITH SOMALIS TENDING TO PUT CLAN AND PRIVATE INTERESTS AHEAD OF NATIONAL ONES. UNDAUNTED, THE ISF IS IN THE PROCESS OF NETWORKING TO CREATE A WORLD-WIDE ORGANIZATION TO REPRESENT SOMALI SOCIETY, AT HOME AND ABROAD, IN THE "NEXT PEACE CONFERENCE." ¶7. (U) THE SPECIFIC PLAN HAS TWO ASPECTS, DISARMAMENT AND PEACEMAKING. THE BEST WAY TO DISARM THE WARLORDS IS TO RAISE A SOMALI ARMY TRAINED AND READY TO DO SO, MASETTI SAID. THE FLEDGLING NATIONAL ARMY WOULD BE CONSTITUTED ABROAD AND CALLED TO SOMALIA TO IMPLEMENT THE ACCORD UPON ITS COMPLETION. TO ARRIVE AT A WORKABLE PEACE ACCORD, THE ISF PROPOSES HOLDING A YEAR-LONG SERIES OF MEETINGS OF SOMALIS IN EIGHT COUNTRIES: THE USA, CANADA, UK, SWEDEN, THE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ8003 PAGE 01 ROME 00618 02 OF 02 141432Z ACTION EUR-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EB-00 FAAE-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SCT-00 SP-00 IRM-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 ECA-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-01 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /007W -------------- 364F76 141432Z /38 R 141345Z FEB 03 FM AMEMBASSY ROME TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8271 INFO EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE IGAD COLLECTIVE CIA WASHDC USMISSION USUN NEW YORK C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ROME 000618 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2008 TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS ELAB SO PREL MOPS ELAB SO IT ITPGOV SUBJECT: SOMALIA: AN ITALIAN NGO'S PLAN B FOR PEACE NETHERLANDS, ITALY, SOMALIA, AND AUSTRALIA. EACH MEETING WOULD DISCUSS AND PROPOSE AMENDMENTS TO A DRAFT CONSTITUTION TO BE DRAWN UP BY A STEERING COMMITTEE IN CONSULTATION WITH THE U.S., EU, AND UN. FINALLY, A REPRESENTATIVE GROUP OF 150-200 DELEGATES FROM THE NATIONAL MEETINGS WOULD MEET TO CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ROME 00618 02 OF 02 141432Z FORM A PROVISIONAL NATIONAL ASSEMBLY TO FINALIZE THE CONSTITUTION. THE PROPOSAL BE WOULD BUDGETED AT 1-1.5M EURO. THIS PLAN WOULD HAVE THE ADDED BENEFIT OF EMPOWERING INTELLECTUALS AND TECHNOCRATS, WHO WOULD THEN BE BETTER PREPARED TO WORK ON POLITICAL AND SOCIAL RECONSTRUCTION AFTERWARDS. THE WARLORDS COULD PARTICIPATE IN THE PROCESS BUT ONLY ON THE SAME TERMS AS EVERYBODY ELSE (WHEREAS "NOW THEY'RE IN CHARGE"). AT THE CONCLUSION, THEY WOULD BE FORCED TO ACCEPT THE ACCORD OR BECOME OUTLAWS TO BE FORCIBLY DISARMED AND PERHAPS TRIED. -------------- -------------- NEXT STEPS TOWARD AN "INTELLIGENT SOLUTION;" MFA RESPONSE -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) MASETTI STRESSED THAT THE ISF IS NOT AGAINST ELDORET. IT HOPES THAT ELDORET WILL SUCCEED BUT WANTS TO BEGIN WORK ON A FALLBACK PLAN IN CASE IT DOES NOT. MASETTI HAD PRESENTED THE ISF'S PROPOSAL TO THE MFA, BUT "THE FARNESINA (MFA) IS LOYAL TO ELDORET," HE OBSERVED. IN A FEBRUARY 12 TELCON, MFA OFFICE DIRECTOR FOR EAST AFRICAN AFFAIRS PAOLA IMPERIALE SAID THAT THE MFA IS STUDYING THE PROPOSAL. IMPERIALE SAID THAT THE MFA WAS IN FACT INTERESTED IN SUPPORTING A MEETING OF SOMALI EXILES IN ITALY IF THE ISF COULD HOLD IT IN SUPPORT OF ELDORET, NOT IN COMPETITION TO IT. (ITALIAN LAW DOES NOT PERMIT THE MFA TO FUND MEETINGS FOR EXILES IN OTHER COUNTRIES.) HOWEVER, THE MFA QUESTIONED THE PLAN TO HAVE EXILES CONSTITUTE A MAJORITY IN THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY. "DO YOU THINK ITALIANS WOULD ACCEPT IT IF AN ASSEMBLY DOMINATED BY ITALIAN AMERICANS AND ITALIAN BRITONS WERE TO DECIDE ON ITS CONSTITUTION?" SHE ASKED. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ROME 00618 02 OF 02 141432Z ¶9. (U) MASETTI BELIEVES THAT "CONSTANT CONSULTATION WITH THE U.S., EU, AND UN" IS THE "WISEST WAY TO PROCEED." HE HOPES TO PARTICIPATE IN AN ONGOING EXCHANGE OF INFORMATION WITH THE USG BUT IS NOT YET AT THE POINT OF REQUESTING CONSULTATIONS IN WASHINGTON OR BACKING. HE DID, HOWEVER, MENTION THAT VISA FACILITATION WOULD BE APPRECIATED, AS TWO MEMBERS OF HIS ORGANIZATION WERE PLANNING A MISSION TO THE STATES TO CONSULT WITH SOMALI EXILES THERE ON THE PLAN. IF THE ISF DEVELOPS POLITICAL SUPPORT FOR ITS PLAN, IT WILL ASK THE US AND EU FOR FUNDING. ¶10. (SBU) COMMENT: MASETTI'S PLAN SEEMS STARRY-EYED IN SEVERAL ASPECTS, NOT LEAST THE IDEA THAT AN ARMY DRAWING ON SOMALIS IN DIVERSE COUNTRIES COULD BE TRAINED AND EQUIPPED IN EXILE TO PARACHUTE IN AT THE MOMENT OF NEED. NONETHELESS, MASETTI HIMSELF, AS WELL AS ISF'S FOUNDERS, ARE SERIOUS INDIVIDUALS WITH GOOD INTENT. WE REPORT THE IDEA AGAINST THE DAY THE GROUP REQUESTS MEETINGS IN WASHINGTON FOR FURTHER CONSULTATIONS. THE PROPOSAL WILL BE E-MAILED TO AF/E. SEMBLER CONFIDENTIAL > 2003ROME00618 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL