C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 004273

SIPDIS


DEPT. FOR NEA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2013
TAGS: PREL KPAL EG IS IT UNSC
SUBJECT: MUBARAK IN ITALY: EXPELLING ARAFAT WOULD BE A
DANGEROUS MISTAKE

REF: A. FBIS EUP20030913000007

B. FBIS EUP20030912000104

C. ROME 1910

D. ROME 2495

CLASSIFIED BY: POL M/C TOM COUNTRYMAN FOR REASON 1.5 (B),(D)

1.(U) PRESS COVERAGE OF EGYPTIAN PRESIDENT MUBARAK'S 10-12
OCTOBER VISIT TO ROME FOCUSED ON HIS VIEWS OF THE MIDDLE EAST
SITUATION AND ISRAEL'S ANNOUNCEMENT THAT IT INTENDED TO EXPEL
YASIR ARAFAT FROM THE PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES. IN
STRAIGHTFORWARD AND BALANCED REMARKS, THE EGYPTIAN PRESIDENT
DENOUNCED ISRAEL'S THREAT TO EXPEL ARAFAT AS A "DANGEROUS
MISTAKE," NOT BECAUSE OF ANY LOYALTY TO ARAFAT BUT BECAUSE HE
HAS BEEN THE CHOSEN PALESTINIAN LEADER FOR FOUR DECADES AND
HIS EXPULSION WOULD ONLY DESTABILIZE THE SITUATION EVEN
FURTHER. ARAFAT IS "OF FUNDAMENTAL IMPORTANCE" TO THE PEACE
PROCESS, MUBARAK ARGUED. HE ALSO APPEALED TO THE QUARTET TO
BRING THE ROAD MAP BACK TO LIFE, AS THE ONLY WAY TO ACHIEVE
PEACE, A SENTIMENT SHARED BY HIS ITALIAN COUNTERPARTS.


2. (SBU) PM BERLUSCONI REPORTEDLY REMAINED SILENT WHEN
QUESTIONED BY HIS GUEST ABOUT THE POSSIBLE EXPULSION OF
ARAFAT, SAYING HE HAD NOT YET CONSULTED WITH EU PARTNERS.
PRESIDENT CIAMPI, HOWEVER, SHARED MUBARAK'S SENTIMENT,
EXPRESSING HIS HOPE THAT ISRAEL WOULD REFRAIN FROM TAKING
ACTIONS, SUCH AS EXPELLING ARAFAT, THAT COULD AGGRAVATE
TENSIONS. FM FRATTINI, SPEAKING ON BEHALF OF THE EU, ALSO
CALLED ON ISRAEL TO "AVOID ANY SHOW OF FORCE, ESPECIALLY THE
EXPULSION OF PRESIDENT ARAFAT, WHICH COULD JEOPARDIZE THE
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ROAD MAP." (REF A) (COMMENT: IN HIS
TRIP TO THE REGION IN JUNE (REFS C AND D), BERLUSCONI
FOLLOWED PRESIDENT BUSH'S EXAMPLE IN REFUSING TO MEET WITH
ARAFAT, CREATING AN UPROAR AMONG OTHER EU LEADERS WHO STILL
CONSIDER ARAFAT TO BE A LEGITIMATE LEADER. FURTHERMORE,
BERLUSCONI STRONGLY SUPPORTS THE U.S. POSITION THAT ARAFAT IS
AN OBSTACLE TO THE PEACE PROCESS AND THEREFORE PROBABLY WAS
RELUCTANT TO COMMENT. END COMMENT.)

3.(C) BOTH THE MFA AND THE EGYPTIAN EMBASSY CONFIRMED THAT
MUBARAK'S PRIVATE COMMENTS WITH HIS ITALIAN HOSTS RAN ALONG
THE SAME LINES AS THOSE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE PRESS, AND THAT
BERLUSCONI WAS RELATIVELY SILENT ON THE ARAFAT ISSUE.
EGYPTIAN DCM MAHMOUD EL-DIEB TOLD POL M/C AND POLOFF ON 17
SEPTEMBER THAT PRESS REPORTS REFLECTED WHAT WAS ACTUALLY
SAID. IN ADDITION TO DISCUSSING THE MIDDLE EAST SITUATION,
HE ADDED, MUBARAK'S MAIN PURPOSE WAS TO MEET WITH
CONFINDUSTRIA (ITALY'S LARGEST EMPLOYERS' ASSOCIATION) AND
PRIVATE BUSINESSES IN AN EFFORT TO PROMOTE ITALIAN INVESTMENT
IN EGYPT (ITALY ALREADY IS EGYPT'S LARGEST TRADING PARTNER IN
EUROPE). MFA DEPUTY DIRECTOR FOR THE MIDDLE EAST FRANCESCO
CERULLI ECHOED EL-DIEB'S REACTIONS, TELLING POL M/C ON 19
SEPTEMBER THAT MUBARAK'S VISIT WAS ROUTINE AND THAT A KEY
GOAL WAS THE MEETING WITH ANTONIO D'AMATO, THE HEAD OF
CONFINDUSTRIA.

SEMBLER




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2003ROME04273 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL