LIBYAN REFERENCE IN US-EU PROLIFERATION STATEMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 002763 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NP AND EUR E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2013 TAGS: KNNP PARM PREL IT LY EU EUN SUBJECT: LIBYAN REFERENCE IN US-EU PROLIFERATION STATEMENT REF: STATE 171136 CLASSIFIED BY: ACTING POL MC JOHN BASS, REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D) ¶1. THIS MESSAGE CONTAINS AN ACTION REQUEST FOR NP. PLEASE SEE PARA 4. ¶2. (C) THE BERLUSCONI GOVERNMENT BELIEVES QADAFFI HAS "CHOSEN THE PATH OF REINTEGRATION" INTO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY AND WAS TAKING IMPORTANT STEPS IN THAT DIRECTION, THE PRIME MINISTER'S DEPUTY DIPLOMATIC ADVISOR, GIANPAOLO SCARANTE, TOLD US JUNE 18. ITALY WAS NOT OPPOSED IN PRINCIPLE TO INCLUDING A REFERENCE TO LIBYA IN A US-EU PROLIFERATION STATEMENT; EXPERTS COULD WORK OUT THE DETAILS IN NORMAL CHANNELS. SCARANTE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT QADAFFI'S WMD AND MISSILE ACQUISITION PROGRAMS HAD NOT BEEN DISMANTLED ("OTHER PATHS STILL EXIST") BUT SAID HE WAS UNAWARE OF ANY SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON THEIR CONTINUED ACTIVITIES. SCARANTE MIRRORED WASHINGTON DCM STEFANINI'S REFTEL COMMENTS IN ENCOURAGING THE U.S. TO PROVIDE MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. HE REITERATED THE PRIME MINISTER'S ASSESSMENT, BASED ON HIS DIRECT CONTACTS, THAT QADAFFI IS COMMITTED TO LIBYA'S REINTEGRATION AND WORKING TOWARD THAT GOAL. ¶3. WE ALSO PROVIDED THE POINTS TO MFA LIBYA OFFICE DIRECTOR BELLAVIA AND NONPROLIFERATION EXPERT SARDI, NEITHER OF WHOM HAD IMMEDIATE COMMENTS THAT WENT BEYOND BELLAVIA'S JUNE 16 COMMENTS (REF B) THAT A HARD PUSH ON NONPRO NOW WOULD REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF QADAFFI ABANDONING LIBYA'S UNSC BID. ¶4. COMMENT AND ACTION REQUEST: WE THINK SCARANTE'S COMMENTS, TOGETHER WITH STEFANINI'S, REFLECT AN ITALIAN GOVERNMENT CALCULATION THAT THWARTING LIBYA'S UNSC MEMBERSHIP BID IS THE USG'S MAIN PRIORITY ON LIBYA. HIS SUGGESTION THAT ITALY IS NOT OPPOSED IN PRINCIPLE TO A LIBYA REFERENCE IN THE NONPRO STATEMENT IS PROBABLY MORE A BAIT-AND-SWITCH BACK TO THE MFA THAN IT IS A REAL OPENING. THE ITALIANS WON'T PUSH FOR A REFERENCE TO LIBYA, BUT WE DON'T THINK THEY WILL WANT TO BE ISOLATED WITHIN THE EU-15 IN OPPOSING ONE. ANY ADDITIONAL SPECIFIC INFORMATION WASHINGTON AGENCIES COULD PROVIDE ABOUT THE CONTINUED ACTIVITIES OF LIBYA'S WMD AND MISSILE ACQUISITION PROGRAMS -- ESPECIALLY ACTIVITIES COINCIDENT WITH QADDAFI'S CURRENT REINTEGRATION CHARM OFFENSIVE -- WILL HELP, BUT ABSENT COMPELLING SPECIFIC EVIDENCE IS UNLIKELY TO CARRY THE DAY. ACTION REQUEST FOR NP: PLEASE PROVIDE ANY SPECIFIC INTELLIGENCE-DERIVED INFORMATION REGARDING THE ACQUISITION PROGRAMS' RECENT ACTIVITIES THAT WE COULD SHARE WITH SCARANTE AND OTHERS. END ACTION REQUEST. SEMBLER NNNN 2003ROME02763 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL