MFA EAST AFRICA DIRECTOR AND NSC AFRICA DIRECTOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 000208 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2008 TAGS: PREL KE DJ ER ET SO IT UN SUBJECT: MFA EAST AFRICA DIRECTOR AND NSC AFRICA DIRECTOR EXCHANGE VIEWS CLASSIFIED BY: POL M C TOM COUNTRYMAN FOR REASON 1.5 (D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: MFA EAST AFRICA DIRECTOR PAOLA IMPERIALE AND NSC AFRICA DIRECTOR MATTHEW MCLEAN EXCHANGED VIEWS ON A BROAD RANGE OF EAST AFRICA ISSUES. THE TWO DISCUSSED SUPPORT FOR THE NEW GOVERNMENT IN KENYA, POLICY REGARDING SOMALILAND, THE ROLES OF DJIBOUTI AND ERITREA IN THE GWOT, AND THE REGIONAL FOOD CRISIS. END SUMMARY. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ROME 00208 170922Z -------------- KENYA: SUPPORTING THE NEW GOVERNMENT -------------- ¶2. (C) AT THE REQUEST OF MCLEAN, IMPERIALE AND HE MET SATURDAY, JANUARY 11 FOR AN INFORMAL DISCUSSION OF EAST AFRICA POLICY. ON KENYA, IMPERIALE MENTIONED THAT THE ITALIAN PARLIAMENT HAS A PROJECT TO PROVIDE TECHNICAL ADVICE TO THE KENYAN PARLIAMENT. MCLEAN AGREED THAT TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE, GOOD GOK POLICY, AND PROGRESS AGAINST CORRUPTION SHOULD PRECEDE A FULL AID PACKAGE. -------------- -- SOMALILAND: "AUTONOMY WOULD BE VERY DANGEROUS" -------------- -- ¶3. (C) DISCUSSING HOW TO HELP SOMALILAND ABSENT PROGRESS IN THE SOUTH, IMPERIALE EXPLAINED THE GOI VIEW THAT OFFICIALLY RECOGNIZING SOMALILAND AUTONOMY "WOULD BE VERY DANGEROUS." MOST IMPORTANTLY, SOMALILAND HAD "VOTED AWAY" ITS RIGHT TO SOVEREIGNTY, AND UNDOING THE REFERENDUM WITHOUT THE AGREEMENT OF A RECOGNIZED CENTRAL GOVERNMENT WOULD SET A DANGEROUS PRECEDENT. FORMAL RECOGNITION WOULD CREATE DIFFICULTIES IN THE SUDANESE PEACE PROCESS, BECAUSE ARAB STATES WOULD FEAR THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WOULD THEREFORE APPROVE SOUTHERN SUDAN'S SECESSION OR AUTONOMY. FURTHERMORE, SOMALIA HAD HUGE DEBTS. WHO WOULD BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEM IN THE EVENT OF FINANCIAL AUTONOMY? IN ANY CASE, SOMALILAND WAS NOT AS DEMOCRATIC AS IT MIGHT AT FIRST APPEAR. NEVERTHELESS, IMPERIALE CONCLUDED, THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY'S FAILURE TO PUSH SOMALILAND TO CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ROME 00208 170922Z PARTICIPATE IN THE PEACE PROCESS ALREADY CONSTITUTED "DE FACTO RECOGNITION." -------------- -------------- DJIBOUTI AND ERITREA: MINOR PARTNERS IN THE GWOT -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) IMPERIALE SAID DJIBOUTI'S PRESIDENT WANTED TO BE INVITED TO ROME BUT IMPLIED IT WAS A LOW PRIORITY FOR THE GOI. MCLEAN SUGGESTED THE PRESIDENT STOP IN ROME ON THE WAY TO HIS UPCOMING VISIT TO WASHINGTON. IMPERIALE ASKED WHETHER THE USG WAS PLANNING TO INCREASE ITS SECURITY PRESENCE IN DJIBOUTI. MCLEAN SAID THAT DJIBOUTI DID NOT HAVE THE CAPACITY TO ABSORB A MUCH GREATER PRESENCE. ¶5. (C) IMPERIALE NOTED THAT ALTHOUGH ONLY ERITREA IMPRISONED JOURNALISTS, MAKING IT LOOK MORE OPPRESSIVE THAN ETHIOPIA, THERE WAS NO MORE PRESS FREEDOM IN ETHIOPIA BECAUSE THE PRESS THERE WAS ENTIRELY GOVERNMENT OWNED. MCLEAN SAID THAT BECAUSE OF THE IMPRISONED FSNS, THE USG WANTED TO GO SLOWLY ON BUILDING TIES TO ASMARA BUT ALSO HAD TO CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY THAT ERITREAN ASSETS WOULD BE OF VALUE IN THE GWOT. -------------- -- AFRICA FOOD CRISIS: GOI FOCUSES ON EAST AFRICA -------------- -- ¶6. (C) IMPERIALE SAID THAT THE GOI WAS TRYING TO RAISE THE PROFILE OF THE EAST AFRICAN FOOD CRISIS TO THE LEVEL OF ATTENTION THE SOUTHERN AFRICAN FOOD CRISIS HAD RECEIVED. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ROME 00208 170922Z ETHIOPIA'S ONE-PARTY STATE AND GOVERNMENT OWNERSHIP OF LAND DISCOURAGED PRIVATE INVESTMENT, AND MCLEAN AND SHE AGREED ON THE NEED FOR A LONG-TERM SOLUTION: AGRICULTURE REFORM IN ETHIOPIA. IMPERIALE SAID THAT WHEN MELES CAME TO ROME IN LATE FEBRUARY OR MARCH, THE GOI WOULD TRY TO GET HIM TO "GIVE UP HIS COMMUNIST IDEAS." ¶7. (C) WITH REGARD TO SECURITY ISSUES, IMPERIALE NOTED THAT THE COUNTRIES OF THE REGION DID NOT SHARE INTELLIGENCE BECAUSE OF RACIAL SUSPICIONS. ("ETHIOPIANS CONSIDER THEMSELVES HISTORICALLY SUPERIOR," SHE SAID.) FINALLY, THE ETHIOPIANS "ATTACH GREAT IMPORTANCE TO AMERICAN INVOLVEMENT IN THE ELDORET PEACE PROCESS FOR THE SECURITY OF THE REGION." ¶8. (U) NSC DIRECTOR MCLEAN DID NOT HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO CLEAR THIS CABLE. SKODON CONFIDENTIAL > 2003ROME00208 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL