U/S BOLTON BRIEFS ITALIAN OFFICIALS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 001564 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2013 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ROME 01564 01 OF 02 112128Z TAGS: PARM MOPS PREL MOPS PREL IT ITPARM SUBJECT: U/S BOLTON BRIEFS ITALIAN OFFICIALS CLASSIFIED BY: DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION EMIL SKODON FOR REASONS 1.5(B)(D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. UNDERSECRETARY BOLTON BRIEFED SENIOR ITALIAN OFFICIALS ON IRAQ, NORTH KOREAN, IRAN AND OTHER NON-PROLIFERATION ISSUES IN ROME ON APRIL 9, FOLLOWING HIS MEETINGS AT THE VATICAN (REPORTED SEPTEL). THE ITALIANS ARE ANXIOUS TO REPAIR RIFTS IN THE TRANSATLANTIC ALLIANCE, PARTICULARLY DURING THE UPCOMING ITALIAN EU PRESIDENCY, AND VIEW NON-PROLIFERATION AS AN AREA WHERE THE US AND EUROPE CAN WORK TOGETHER. THEY AGREE THAT NORTH KOREA AND IRAN POSE SERIOUS NON-PROLIFERATION RISKS THAT WILL REQUIRE COORDINATED EFFORTS BY THE US AND EUROPE. END SUMMARY. IRAQ AND TRANSATLANTIC ALLIANCE -------------- ¶2. (C) AT A DCM-HOSTED LUNCH AND IN A SEPARATE MEETING WITH MFA SECRETARY GENERAL AMBASSADOR BALDOCCI, U/S BOLTON TOLD SENIOR ITALIAN OFFICIALS THAT THE USG'S FOCUS IS ON STANDING UP AN IRAQI-LED GOVERNMENT AS SOON AS FEASIBLE, NOT ON A US OCCUPATION OR A UN ADMINISTRATION OF THE COUNTRY. AS EVIDENCE OF IRAQ'S WMD PROGRAM IS UNCOVERED AND IRAQIS CELEBRATE THEIR FREEDOM, THE DEBATE OVER THE DECISION TO WAGE WAR WILL FADE. SECURITY FORCES WILL BE NEEDED TO CONTROL ANARCHY THAT MAY ERUPT BETWEEN SADDAM HUSSEIN'S FALL AND THE INSTALLATION OF AN INTERIM AUTHORITY, HE SAID. SEVERAL OF THE ITALIANS ATTENDING THE LUNCH RESPONDED THAT FINDING A ROLE FOR NATO, THE EU AND THE UN WILL BE IMPORTANT TO CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ROME 01564 01 OF 02 112128Z RESTORING CONSENSUS AND ESTABLISHING A NEW WORLD ORDER. THE DCM NOTED THAT THE USG AND EUROPEAN COUNTRIES HAVE HAD JUXTAPOSED PRIORITIES; DISARMING IRAQ HAS BEEN THE USG'S FIRST PRIORITY, FOLLOWED BY CONCERNS ABOUT THE TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONSHIP, WHILE EUROPE'S FOCUS HAS BEEN ON THE TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONSHIP AND THEN ON DISARMING IRAQ. IF INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS WANT A ROLE IN POST-CONFLICT IRAQ, THEY HAVE TO BE ABLE TO MAKE USEFUL CONTRIBUTIONS; CREATING A ROLE JUST TO LEGITIMIZE THEM WON'T SERVE ANYONE'S INTEREST, HE SAID. FRANCESCO TALO, A DIPLOMATIC ADVISOR TO THE PRIME MINISTER, SUGGESTED THAT IT MAY BE MORE PRACTICAL TO START AT NATO, WITH ITS LINKS TO SECURITY ISSUES LIKE WMD AND STABILIZATION, AND THEN MOVE FORWARD TO THE LARGER UN FORUM. ¶3. (C) IN A SEPARATE MEETING, AMBASSADOR BALDOCCI PREDICTED THE POST-CONFLICT PERIOD IN IRAQ WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT THAN IN KOSOVO. A PRAGMATIC DECISION ON HOW BEST TO USE THE UN -- ADMITTEDLY AN IMPORTANT ASSET -- WOULD BE CRUCIAL, HE SAID. THE MFA HAS SET UP AN INTERAGENCY TASK FORCE TO COORDINATE CONTRIBUTIONS THAT CAN BE PROVIDED ONCE THE MECHANISMS ARE IN PLACE. BALDOCCI EMPHASIZED THAT THE GOI WANTS TO REPAIR RIFTS IN TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS AND FOCUS ON COOPERATION DURING ITS EU PRESIDENCY. U/S BOLTON NOTED THAT WINNING THE PEACE IN IRAQ WILL BE A BIG JOB. MANY IRAQIS SEE EXISTING NETWORKS FOR DISTRIBUTING ASSISTANCE OR MAINTAINING SECURITY AS UNDER BA'ATH PARTY CONTROL; THOSE NETWORKS WILL NEED TO BE RECREATED, BY CHURCHES, MOSQUES AND NEW IRAQI AUTHORITIES, IN ORDER TO EARN THE PUBLIC'S CONFIDENCE. NORTH KOREA CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ROME 01564 01 OF 02 112128Z -------------- ¶4. (C) THE ITALIANS ATTENDING THE DCM'S LUNCH VIEWED NORTH KOREA AS MORE DIFFICULT THAN IRAQ, GIVEN THE DPRK TENDENCY TOWARD UNPREDICTABLE POLICY-MAKING. MINISTER MARTINI, MFA DG FOR ASIA (AND FORMER AMBASSADOR TO SEOUL),SAID THE DPRK AMBASSADOR TO ITALY CONTINUES TO REPEAT THAT NORTH KOREA IS READY TO RETURN TO THE NPT IF THE US AGREES TO BILATERAL DISCUSSIONS. (NOTE: MARTINI HAD TOLD HIM THIS WOULD BE "IMPOSSIBLE." END NOTE.) U/S BOLTON REVIEWED USG VARIOUS ATTEMPTS TO FIND AN ACCEPTABLE SOLUTION, BUT STRESSED THAT THE ANSWER IS NOT AGREED FRAMEWORK. HE SAID RECENT CHINESE ACTIONS MAY INDICATE THAT CHINA RECOGNIZES IT CAN AND SHOULD PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN INFLUENCING NORTH KOREA'S BEHAVIOR. ON THE OTHER HAND, CHINA, ALONG WITH RUSSIA, HASN'T BEEN HELPFUL IN THE UNSC ON DPRK. GIVEN THE THREAT NORTH KOREA'S ACTIONS POSE TO JAPAN, AND THE DELICATE SECURITY BALANCE IN ASIA, ITS SURPRISING CHINA HASN'T DONE MORE, U/S BOLTON COMMENTED. ¶5. (C) MINISTER TREZZA, MFA COORDINATOR FOR INTERNATIONAL SECURITY POLICY (AND ANOTHER EX-AMBASSADOR TO SEOUL),NOTED THAT NORTH KOREA IS AN ISSUE ON WHICH THE US AND EU ARE IN SYNCH. THE BIG DIPLOMATIC PUSH SHOULD BE ON THE CHINESE, HE SAID. ITALY IS OUT IN FRONT WITHIN THE EU ON EFFORTS TO MOVE THE DPRK IMPASSE FORWARD, AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS AT THE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ0430 PAGE 01 ROME 01564 02 OF 02 111559Z ACTION AC-01 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DOTE-00 PERC-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 VCE-00 NRRC-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 DHS-00 PM-00 ACE-00 SSO-00 SS-00 SSD-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /003W -------------- 546A98 111559Z /38 O 111559Z APR 03 FM AMEMBASSY ROME TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9228 INFO NATO EU COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE AMEMBASSY BEIJING IMMEDIATE AMEMBASSY MOSCOW IMMEDIATE AMEMBASSY SEOUL IMMEDIATE AMEMBASSY TOKYO IMMEDIATE AMCONSUL FLORENCE IMMEDIATE AMCONSUL MILAN IMMEDIATE AMCONSUL NAPLES IMMEDIATE JOINT STAFF WASHDC IMMEDIATE SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE USCINCCENT MACDILL AFB FL IMMEDIATE USMISSION GENEVA IMMEDIATE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ROME 001564 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2013 TAGS: PARM MOPS PREL MOPS PREL IT ITPARM SUBJECT: U/S BOLTON BRIEFS ITALIAN OFFICIALS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ROME 01564 02 OF 02 111559Z UPCOMING EU SPECIAL SESSION ON NORTH KOREA. THE FACT THE DPRK IS ASKING FOR SECURITY ASSURANCES WHILE FORFEITING THE NEGATIVE SECURITY ASSURANCES PROVIDED BY THE NPT MAY BE A POINT WORTH PURSUING, HE SAID. BOLTON WELCOMED CREATIVE SUGGESTIONS, AND POINTED TO NORTH KOREA AS ANOTHER ISSUE WHERE ITALY COULD PLAY A LEADERSHIP ROLE DURING ITS EU PRESIDENCY. THE USG IS CONSIDERING URGING COUNTRIES LIKE EGYPT, SYRIA AND YEMEN NOT TO BUY WEAPONS FROM NORTH KOREA AS A WAY OF REDUCING REVENUES TO THE REGIME, HE EXPLAINED. ITALY MIGHT USE ITS RAPPORT WITH LIBYA TO CONVEY SUCH A MESSAGE, IF SUCH AN APPROACH IS ADOPTED, U/S BOLTON SUGGESTED. IRAN -------------- ¶6. (C) AT THE LUNCH, TREZZA SUGGESTED THAT IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM IS LOOMING AS THE NEXT CRISIS. THE EU CONSENSUS ON HOW TO DEFUSE THE SITUATION IS THAT IRAN MUST AGREE TO ADHERE TO THE IAEA ADDITIONAL PROTOCOL AND THE CODE OF CONDUCT ON MISSILES. A TOKEN GESTURE FROM ISRAEL, SUCH AS RATIFYING THE CWC, WOULD HELP UNDERMINE THE IRANIAN RETORT THAT THEY WON'T SIGN UP UNTIL ISRAEL DOES, HE SAID. U/S BOLTON SAID PRESIDENT BUSH IS COMMITTED TO MAKING PROGRESS IN THE MID EAST, WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE ARAB-ISRAEL ISSUE AS WELL. THE IAEA AND MANY COUNTRIES, INCLUDING RUSSIA, WERE STUNNED BY THE SOPHISTICATION AND EXTENSIVENESS OF IRAN'S NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM FOLLOWING THE IAEA VISIT, HE SAID. THE JUNE IAEA BOARD MEETING OFFERS THE CHANCE TO LAY BARE THE ADVANCED STATE OF IRAN'S CAPABILITIES, AND TO MAKE PLAIN IRAN'S EFFORTS TO ACHIEVE A NUCLEAR WEAPONS CAPABILITY. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ROME 01564 02 OF 02 111559Z ¶7. (C) DURING HIS MEETING WITH U/S BOLTON, AMBASSADOR BALDOCCI ALSO EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT IRAN'S NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM. HE STRESSED THAT, WHILE ITALY HAS GOOD RELATIONS WITH IRAN, ITALIAN OFFICIALS ALWAYS PRESS THE IRANIANS ON HUMAN RIGHTS AND NON-PROLIFERATION ISSUES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY USEFUL DURING ITALY'S EU PRESIDENCY, U/S BOLTON SAID. HIS RECENT DISCUSSIONS WITH FRENCH OFFICIALS ON NORTH KOREA AND IRAN WERE FURTHER INDICATIONS THAT NON-PROLIFERATION ISSUES MAY OFFER CONSTRUCTIVE OPPORTUNITIES FOR IMPROVING COOPERATION BETWEEN THE EU AND THE US. RESPONDING TO A QUESTION, U/S BOLTON NOTED THAT THE G-8 COULD NOT SERVE AS A FORUM FOR ADDRESSING IRAN'S WEAPONS PROGRAM BECAUSE RUSSIA IS INTERNALLY DIVIDED ON THE ISSUE. SOME KIND OF A FOREIGN MINISTERS' STATEMENT ON DPRK, HOWEVER, WOULD BE VERY HELPFUL, HE ADDED, ALTHOUGH THE G8 FACES THE SAME PROBLEM WITH RUSSIA. SYRIA, LIBYA -------------- ¶8. (C) THE OUTCOME OF THE IRAQ CONFLICT MAY CAUSE COUNTRIES LIKE SYRIA AND LIBYA TO RE-EVALUATE THE IMPORTANCE OF THEIR CLANDESTINE WEAPONS PROGRAMS, U/S BOLTON TOLD THE ITALIANS. AT THE LUNCH, MINISTER CEVESE, MFA DIRECTOR OF DISARMAMENT AND ARMS CONTROL, SUGGESTED CONSIDERING CHALLENGE INSPECTIONS IN LIBYA UNDER THE CWC. U/S BOLTON AGREED THAT, WITH NEW MANAGEMENT IN PLACE, THE CHEMICAL WEAPONS ORGANIZATION MAY NOW BE IN A POSITION TO CONDUCT CREDIBLE INSPECTIONS. HE SAID IT WOULD BE IMPORTANT FOR THE US AND EU COUNTRIES TO KEEP UNIFIED PRESSURE ON BOTH COUNTRIES, AS WELL AS OTHERS ASPIRING TO DEVELOP ILLEGAL WEAPONS. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ROME 01564 02 OF 02 111559Z ¶9. (U) U/S BOLTON HAS CLEARED THIS CABLE. SEMBLER CONFIDENTIAL > 2003ROME01564 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL