C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000048

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV
CDR USPACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2013
TAGS: PREL TH BM
SUBJECT: THAI MINISTERS POISED TO OVERRUN RANGOON


Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez. Reason: 1.5 (d).


1. (C) Summary; At least six Thai ministers and the Chiefs of
the Thai Armed Services will all parade through Burma during
January in pursuit of agreements on trade and illegal
workers, among other issues. There may also be some action
on the border in early February between the Burmese and the
Shan State Army (South). End Summary.

Visits


2. (C) There will be a parade of Thai ministers in Rangoon in
January. According to Thai Embassy sources, between January
17 and January 27, the Thai Ministers of Education, Commerce,
Labor, and Science and Technology, the Chiefs of the Thai
Armed Services, and Deputy Prime Ministers Chavalit and Korn
will all visit Burma. The Thai Minister of Defense and
Supreme Commander Surayud may also accompany the two Prime
Ministers.

History


3. (C) The Education Minister will focus on the treatment of
Thai/Burmese history in each nation's textbooks. He
reportedly led the effort to purge Thai textbooks of a lot of
their anti-Burmese venom and plans to urge the Burmese to
take similar steps in regard to the anti-Thai propaganda that
pollutes many of their history books.

Border Trade


3. (C) The Commerce Minister will try to reach agreement on
settlement arrangements for border. The Thai have been
pushing for some time for an arrangement that would allow the
settlement of accounts on border trade only once every six
months, rather than on a transaction-by-transaction basis.
Normally this would work to Burma's benefit, because it would
allow Burma to run an automatically financed deficit in its
trade with Thailand, but. given current Burmese efforts to
crack down on over- and under-invoicing, and on capital
flight through trade channels, the proposal had not sparked
much interest among the Burmese. The Commerce Minister hoped
to change this during his visit.

Illegal Workers


4. (C) The Two Deputy Prime Ministers and the Labor Minister
will focus on illegal Burmese workers in Thailand. Thailand
submitted a draft MOU on the repatriation of illegal workers
to Burma on October 7, but had not received a response.
Meanwhile, NaSaKa (Burmese border police) officers had begun
to rais

e questions about procedures for the return of illegal
workers. Basically, NaSaKa wanted to apply the same
procedures now used on the Bangladeshi border with refugees
to ensure that all persons who were sent back from Thailand
really were Burmese citizens. They also wanted to open only
one repatriation point (at Myawaddy), rather than the three
requested by Thailand. The Thais believed that the Burmese
procedures were impractical, and hoped to talk them out of
them during the upcoming meeting. If they were successful,
they would sign the MOU on January 27. If not -- and right
now that seemed most probable -- then they would talk some
more.

Insurgents and NGOs


5. (C) On other issues, the Thai Embassy sources said that
the Royal Thai Army had pushed many of the Shan State
Army-South's largest armed units into Burma and was now
waiting for the Burmese to finish them off, probably with an
attack in early February. The Thai sources said that the RTA
would not block the border, but would not allow the SSA units
to re-enter Thailand armed. If they fled the Burmese, they
would have to leave their arms behind. As for the NGOs on
the border, Prime Minister Thaksin had ordered that the rules
and regulations governing their operations be "streamlined"
and enforced. This had spooked some of the NGOs and led to
protests by many of the European embassies in Bangkok.
However, there was no intent to shut the NGOs down
completely, the Thai sources said. The RTG only wished to
ensure that they operated fully in accordance with the law.
The Shan Rape Cases


6. (C) The Thai Embassy sources also confirmed that the RTG
had never raised the Shan rape cases with the GOB. Asked
why, given the close ethnic relations between the Thai and
the Shan (Shan is the Burmese word for Siam), the Thai
officers said that the RTG had questions about the
reliability of the NGO reports. The Thai government knew the
political background of both the Shan Human Rights Foundation
and the Shan Women's Action Network and was not prepared to
rely on their reports on such inflammatory issues. The only
statement on the case to date had been made by the Chairman
of the Thai Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, but he
had been speaking individually, not on behalf of the RTG.

Comment


7. (C) The Thais and Burmese are almost a classic case of
historic enemies trying to feel their way to a new
relationship, with Thais, at least for the moment, the
suitors. Nothing is easy; every issue is emotionally
fraught. Nevertheless, the two sides are making progress.
If they can strike some agreements in January on the
treatment of history, border trade and/or illegal workers,
then the next round of talks should be that much easier.
However, there is a lot of history to overcome and there is
always the chance that untoward events will derail the entire
process. End Comment.
Martinez