C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000334

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP AND INL
TREASURY FOR OASIA
CDR PACOM FOR FPA
DEA FOR OF, OFF

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2013
TAGS: SNAR KCRM BM
SUBJECT: OPIUM CULTIVATION DOWN SHARPLY IN BURMA

Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez. Reason: 1.5 (d).


1. (C) Summary: According to UNODC experts, Burma's notorious
Kokang Region is now free of opium. So is northern Shan
State from Kutkai to Muse. According to UNODC's opium
surveyors, preliminary indications from the data they have
collected throughout Shan State suggest that the area under
opium cultivation in Burma may be reduced by as much as 30 to
50 percent this year, despite excellent weather throughout
the opium growing territories. Yields, however, will be
higher and it is still too soon to say whether the overall
crop will be higher or lower. According to UNODC, former
poppy farmers from the opium-free areas are on the move
throughout Shan State, seeking work and food for their
families. End Summary.


2. (C) Jeremy Milsom, who is supervising UNODC's survey of
opium production in Burma, told poloff on March 11 that the
GOB's efforts to curtail opium production had had a major
impact in 2003. According to Milsom the Kokang region and
all of northern Shan State from Kutkai to Muse was free of
opium. UNODC teams had been through all of those areas and
had found no opium at all. UNODC saw no evidence of opium in
Shan State Special Region No. 4 around Mong La, which had
declared itself opium-free in 1997. Milsom said that UNODC
was still compiling its date for central, eastern, and
southern Shan State and that it was still hard to estimate
the overall reduction in opium acreage throughout Shan State.
Nevertheless, an initial survey of the data suggested that
the overall reduction could be in the range of 30 to 50
percent of last year's 80,000 hectare crop.


3. (C) On the downside, Milsom said that there was not much
reduction of opium acreage in the Wa territories, which were
now the only region in Burma where there was any latitude at
all for opium cultivation. (The Wa are pledged to end opium
production in 2005.) Even there, however, UNODC was able to
verify that townships around the Wa heartland of Mong Maw and
its capital of Pang Sang were free of opium. Ironically,
Milsom noted, in the past, outside observers had always
attributed a majority of Burma's opium production to the Wa
territories, even though surveys had regularly shown
production in the Wa territories to be only 20 to 25 percent
of Burma's whole crop. This year, however, with the
reduction in the other cease-fire areas and in government
controlled territories, the Wa could indeed end up producing
a majority of Burma's opium.


4. (C) Milsom also noted that yields were definitely higher
this year, thanks to timely rains in November and December.
As a result, it was still too early to say whether the
overall opium crop in Burma would be higher or lower than
last year. If the increase in yield offsets the decline in
acreage, it would be higher; otherwise it would be lower.


5. (C) Finally, Milsom noted that the impact of the end of
opium production was being felt throughout northern Shan
State. Former opium farmers were flocking into the Wa
territories seeking work to support their families.
Fortunately, the rice crop this year in the Wa territories
was excellent and there was work. In future months and
years, however, the fate of these farmers and their families
will depend on what alternatives they find to opium
production.

Comment


6. (C) Two points are worth making here. First, if these
preliminary indications hold up, the Burmese may, in fact,
reduce acreage under cultivation even in a good weather year.
This year the weather has been excellent and prime growing
areas like the Kokang region, Kutkai, and Muse are all free
of opium, essentially as a result of firm GOB enforcement
actions. Weather had little, if anything, to do with those
changes.


7. (C) Secondly, the former opium poppy farmers now searching
for the means of livelihood in Shan State need the support of
the GOB and the international community. The international
community can and should provide more assistance for
alternative development programs that will give these farmers
options. End Comment.
Martinez