BURMESE STRONGMAN ILL WITH CANCER

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000304 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV USPACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2013 TAGS: PGOV PINS BM SUBJECT: BURMESE STRONGMAN ILL WITH CANCER Classified By: COM CARMEN MARTINEZ FOR REASONS 1.5 (B,D) ¶1. (C) A reliable source with very close personal ties to top military medical officers corroborated recent DAO Rangoon reports that Vice Senior General Maung Aye has been hospitalized. Our source indicated, though, that Maung Aye had been diagnosed with advanced prostate cancer that is not treatable in Burma. The source hypothesized that the SPDC Vice Chairman would soon be sent to Singapore for treatment. ¶2. (C) Comment: The apparent serious illness of Maung Aye leads us to begin speculation on an SPDC without its current second-in-command. The obvious choice of successor based on rank and seniority is General Khin Nyunt (now Secretary One). However, according to one former army officer, it would be unprecedented for a military intelligence officer (who is also not a graduate of the Defense Service Academy) to take over as Deputy Commander-in-Chief. The other major players in the SPDC now are reportedly too junior to be considered for the Deputy position. Thus, the structure of a Burmese regime sans Maung Aye could look much different than it currently does. We doubt, though, whether policy would change significantly. End comment. Martinez