NLD DEMONSTRATIONS FAIL TO MATERIALIZE

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 001488 SIPDIS STATE ALSO FOR EAP/BCLTV; USPACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2013 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BM NLD SUBJECT: NLD DEMONSTRATIONS FAIL TO MATERIALIZE Classified By: DCM Ron McMullen for Reasons 1.5 (B,D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Burma's 83rd National Day anniversary, commemorating a 1920 student strike that accelerated the independence movement, passed quietly on November 18 with the SPDC and the NLD and other pro-democracy groups holding separate, low-key ceremonies. Broader NLD demonstrations failed to materialize, despite prodding from exile groups, and the regime's intelligence apparatus kept a close watch on all pro-democracy activities. The SPDC released 58 prisoners on the eve of the holiday on "humanitarian" grounds, although none of the elderly men and pregnant women released were considered political prisoners. End Summary. ¶2. (U) On November 18 Burma observed National Day, a holiday that commemorates a 1920 student-led strike that protested the British colonial government's ham-fisted control of university-level education. The strike empowered the Young Mens Buddhist Association (YMBA) and other nascent political groups, thereby galvanizing the independence movement. Although this year is the 83rd anniversary of the strike, National Day was not adopted until after independence in 1948. ¶3. (SBU) On the morning of National Day this year, a small group of NLD members gathered at the Kyak-htat-gyi ("Six Levels") Pagoda near the party's shuttered headquarters in downtown Rangoon and offered meals to local monks. Later in the day, a group of about 100 NLD youths proceeded to the Shwedagon Pagoda, Burma's most revered Buddhist shrine, and paid respects at a small monument dedicated to student leaders of the 1920 strike. SPDC military intelligence maintained a heavy presence throughout the day at the Shwedagon Pagoda and videotaped the NLD youths. There were no reports of arrests. ¶4. (SBU) Also on National Day, the Veteran Politicians, a pro-democracy group of elderly activists and former GOB officials, held a commemorative event for about 400 guests. The Veterans called for the release of all political prisoners and a tripartite dialogue involving the nation's three largest forces (the SPDC, the NLD, and the ethnics) as "the only way to peace and national reconciliation." NLD members who attended the event issued a statement requesting the reopening of NLD offices and the unconditional release of the party's leaders, exhorting the regime to "avoid procrastinating and leading the country into further depths of poverty." ¶5. (C) The exiled National Council of the Union of Burma (NCUB),in a November 17 notice, had described NLD plans for a "major event" on National Day, including nationwide protests. However, other than religious ceremonies at local pagodas, no such protests materialized. ¶6. (U) On the eve of National Day, the GOB issued a statement announcing that it had commuted the sentences and released 58 prisoners, "taking into consideration humanitarian reasons." According to the GOB statement, 49 of the released prisoners were females either pregnant or with young children and the remaining nine were over the age of 65 years. None the of the released prisoners were considered by the GOB or the NLD to be political detainees. ¶7. (C) Comment: The GOB's statement also noted that the Government "will continue to release those that will cause no harm to the community nor threaten the existing peace, stability and the unity of the nation." Observers in Rangoon interpret this as a message that the SPDC will only release political prisoners who confess to their transgressions and agree to refrain from future political activities. Martinez