AN EVENING WITH PINHEIRO: NO PROGRESS IN BURMA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001431 SIPDIS USPACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2013 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM ASSK NLD SUBJECT: AN EVENING WITH PINHEIRO: NO PROGRESS IN BURMA REF: A. RANGOON 1429 ¶B. RANGOON 1410 Classified By: COM CARMEN M. MARTINEZ for Reasons 1.5 (B,D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Pinheiro summarized to COM on November 6 that his present visit was a bust and he sees regression in the human rights situation since his last trip to Burma. The SPDC did not concede to him any of the outcomes he'd hoped for during this visit, including releasing the May 30 prisoners, reopening political offices, allowing an assessment of the Shan State rapes, and agreeing to an assessment of the May 30 attack. Though he found ASSK in good health and in a very good mood when he met her earlier on November 6, he also found her isolated and out of touch with the political situation. He felt that the NLD "uncles" are under "illusions" of having influence they don't possess with their assessment that the roadmap is a "fake" and will be overturned at the UNSC. ASSK is open to having visitors, but will not herself initiate any requests for such to the SPDC. She feels the regime treats her courteously; however, before any dialogue or compromise she still insists the GOB or the UN must conduct a credible assessment of the May 30 attack. In a meeting with PM Gen Khin Nyunt, Pinheiro heard a clear intent by the regime to unilaterally execute their roadmap for democracy. Pinheiro is leaving for Bangkok on Saturday, November 8 after briefing the Rangoon press and diplomatic corps. He will fly to New York on November 11 to make his report to the United Nations on the 12th. END SUMMARY. AN ISOLATED ASSK ¶2. (C) On the evening of November 6, UN Special Rapporteur for Human Rights, Paulo Sergio Pinheiro, joined UNDP Res Rep Charles Petrie, former ICRC head Leon de Reidmatten, and the British Ambassador at the COM's residence to review a newly acquired videotape of ASSK's last few days on the road before the Depeyin attack (reftel A). After the viewing, Pinheiro recounted his meeting with ASSK a few hours earlier in the afternoon, and said he found her to be in good health, lively, and full of humor. He said it is "scary" that ASSK is so isolated and he believes her confinement is not good for her grasp of political realities. ¶3. (C) When Pinheiro asked her if she would initiate requests to have visitors, ASSK specifically stated that she will not do so. According to UNDP's Petrie, who joined Pinheiro in his meeting with ASSK, the NLD leader wants to avoid any special treatment not afforded to her detained NLD colleagues. Though she will meet with anyone who requests and succeeds in getting SPDC authorization for a visit, she will not initiate any requests on her own. ASSK added that she would be angry with Pinheiro if he does not comply with her wishes on this issue, a position with which the Special Rapporteur told COM he disagreed. ¶4. (C) At the request of U Tin Oo's wife, Pinheiro had asked the Minister of Home Affairs to move U Tin Oo from his isolated prison in northern Burma and bring him back to Rangoon and under house arrest where he would be safer. However, ASSK rejected this too, saying that there should be no special treatment for NLD prisoners until all were released. ¶5. (C) Pinheiro related how ASSK portrayed firm control and conviction in her political position. She said she had won several important "victories" since Depeyin, including her dictating to the SPDC the decision and the timing for her recent surgery, and her telling the SPDC she would not return to Insein Prison but would go into house arrest instead. She told Pinheiro she is very pleased with the recently expanded U.S. sanctions on the regime. She also feels that the SPDC treats her courteously, singling out Brig Gen Than Tun for special praise as being a gentleman and easy to negotiate with. She admitted that she had made a "mutually agreed security arrangement" with the SPDC, as stated recently in the press by Brig Gen Than Tun, but asked Pinheiro not to question the regime about it as it might prove embarrassing to them. ¶6. (C) When asked what she thought about the SPDC roadmap, ASSK simply said that "it doesn't exist" and that the SPDC has no right to develop a roadmap. She said the only possible roadmap is one that is negotiated between the SPDC and NLD. Regarding Depeyin, ASSK still insists the GOB or the UN conduct a credible investigation or assessment. According to Pinheiro, she said she doesn't want a pound of flesh, she just wants people held accountable for the deaths. ASSK pointed out that there are hard-liners and there are the less-hardliners, but that the international community doesn't want to weaken the hand of the moderates by pressing too hard on the investigation. She also said she is ready for dialogue and compromise, but not until the regime tells everything about what happened at Depeyin. "UNCLES UNDER ILLUSION" ¶7. (C) Pinheiro met with NLD Central Executive Committee members Aung Shwe, Nyunt Wei, and with the oldest of the "uncles," Lun Tin. He characterized the uncles as being completely isolated. Though they have no visitors and no phones, they do receive some newspapers and are somewhat informed about the current political situation. However, they are under an "illusion" that they are very powerful within Burma, and that pressure will come from the UNSC, or in the form of a "Foreign Ministers' Troika." As further proof of their isolation, Pinheiro cited how they told him the SPDC roadmap was a "fake," that it will be discussed in the Security Council, and then will finally be decided by negotiation between the SPDC and the NLD. SPDC REGRESSION ¶8. (C) From his meetings with the Minister of Home Affairs, the Foreign and Deputy Foreign Ministers, and the Prime Minister, Pinheiro concluded the SPDC showed no signs of interest in consultation or dialogue with ASSK, but will consult with the ethnic groups. Pinheiro advised the regime leaders that the Depeyin attack presented both a "regression and an opportunity," and that this can be the moment of healing and forward movement. Khin Nyunt pointed to the extensive mass rallies around the country as proof that the people support the roadmap. The Minister of Home Affairs told Pinheiro he didn't like Pinheiro's proposed methodology for the Shan State rape investigation. Brig Gen Than Tun told Pinheiro a Shan rapes assessment would be very "intrusive." ¶9. (C) COMMENT: Pinheiro, as his latest visit drew near to a close, seemed dissatisfied and displeased with the lack of progress on his mandate. He was also concerned about the growing isolation of ASSK and the CEC. While the SPDC moves forward with its forced-march down the road to its version of democracy, there are fears that ASSK will still be under house arrest and the NLD totally neutralized when the forced march is completed. END COMMENT. Martinez