BURMA: ROAD(MAP) RALLIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 001207 SIPDIS TREASURY FOR OASIA JEFF NEIL USPACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2013 TAGS: PGOV PREL BM SUBJECT: BURMA: ROAD(MAP) RALLIES REF: A. RANGOON 1093 ¶B. RANGOON 1057 Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.5 (B,D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA),a mass membership organization sponsored by the ruling SPDC, staged massive rallies on September 20 in Rangoon and Mandalay as a show of support for Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt's "Road Map to Democracy." The junta will repeat these rigid, tightly controlled mass rallies in the remaining division and state capitals over the next three weeks. On September 22, SPDC Chairman Senior General Than Shwe appointed thirteen new members to the National Convention Convening Commission, a group that is dominated by senior military officers, like the Commission's executive leadership selected several weeks ago (ref a). The rallies and appointments are further signs that the SPDC is moving toward convening the National Convention without the participation of the democratic opposition. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) On September 20, the USDA held massive political rallies in Rangoon and Mandalay to drum up support for the SPDC's seven-step "Road Map to Democracy" (ref b). According to GOB and independent sources, over 15,000 USDA partisans and members of government organizations packed an indoor arena in downtown Rangoon, and nearly 20,000 participated in a similar event held at an outdoor sports stadium in Mandalay. USDA members from a cross section of Burma's civil service, blue collar, and artisan classes attended, all carefully segregated by professional occupation and dressed in USDA-mandated uniforms for each of their columns. ¶3. (SBU) The regime's official newspaper, the New Light of Myanmar, has given four straight days of front page coverage to the rallies, including photos of thousands of youths lined up in neat civilian uniforms. The images of uniformed and thoroughly bored USDA partisans eerily bring to mind rallies of yesteryear totalitarian regimes. Pictures of the rallies also appeared on the SPDC's website (www.myanmar.com), including images of USDA brass leading slogans with raised, clenched fists. ¶4. (U) On September 23, SPDC Chairman Senior General Than Shwe appointed thirteen new members to the National Convention Convening Commission, the body responsible for oversight of a National Convention and the drafting of a new constitution. Six of the new members are senior military officers, including Brigadier General Than Tun, who serves as the regime's liaison with Aung San Suu Kyi. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: This is the first time the SPDC's mouthpiece, "The New Light of Myanmar," has given extensive coverage to USDA activities since the May 30 Depeyin attack on ASSK and NLD supporters. USDA members played a key role in planning and carrying out that attack. Holding such large rallies now, coupled with SPDC promotions of local officials associated with the attack, are strong indications that the junta feels very secure in its control over the democratic opposition. As for next steps, we have no clear indication on a timeline for reconvening the National Convention. However, given heavy military control of the Convening Commission and the prominent role the SPDC has carved out for itself in any potential transition, local Burmese joke that the "Myanmar Road Map" is really nothing more than a "MI (Military Intelligence) Road Map." END COMMENT. Martinez