BURMA: UNODC MAKES A PITCH FOR KOKANG/WA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001114

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP AND INL; DEA FOR OF, OFF;
USPACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2013
TAGS: SNAR BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: UNODC MAKES A PITCH FOR KOKANG/WA
INTERVENTION (KOWI)

REF: RANGOON 707

Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.5 (B,D)


1. (SBU) Summary: The UNODC has been making a quiet pitch
for support among donors for a new counternarcotics
intervention in the Wa and Kokang areas of Burma's Shan State
(dubbed the "KOWI" project). UNODC Burma resident
representative Jean-Luc Lemahieu recently conducted a round
of bilateral consultations within the diplomatic corps and
gave a more detailed description of the proposed KOWI
intervention at an August 26 mini-Dublin Group meeting. He
also shared more details from the 2002-2003 UNODC opium
survey, which concluded that overall opium cultivation is
sharply down in Burma, but revealed disturbing signs that the
Wa are increasing opium activity in advance of their 2005
deadline to cease cultivation. End summary.


2. (C) In a private meeting with COM and P/E chief, Lemahieu
reported that UNODC's Wa project had been extended for two
years, primarily to enhance the project's community
development component, and he was hopeful that USG funding
would return to previous levels (which he indicated was USD
700,000). Lemahieu suggested that the USG had decreased Wa
funding in favor of increased support for counternarcotics
activities in Afghanistan. In response to COM's inquiry
about a standing Wa commitment to cease opium cultivation by
2005, Lemahieu said that reports the Wa had postponed their
target date by two years were false and the GOB's drug czar,
General Kyaw Thein, had personally confirmed that the Wa are
keeping to their promised schedule. However, Lemahieu
acknowledged that there is intense pressure within the Wa
population to increase opium cultivation, explaining that
farmers are unconvinced that there will be sufficient
resources to offset future losses of income.

UNODC 2002/2003 Opium Survey
--------------


3. (SBU) At an August 26 mini-Dublin Group meeting, chaired
by the Japanese Ambassador, Lemahieu said that UNODC's
2002/2003 crop survey had determined that Burma experienced a
24 percent decrease in overall opium cultivation. However,
there had been a marginal increase in production due to
improved weather conditions. In specific regions, the Kokang
areas of northeastern Shan State experienced a 50 percent
decrease in cultivation (which Lemahieu described as too
fast, not allowing the GOB enough time to consolidate gains),
while Wa areas saw a 20 percent increase. Queried by
mini-Dublin Group participants about the disturbing Wa
increases, Lemahieu explained that the Wa were likely taking
advantage of an "open window" for short-term profit before
the 2005 moratorium on production. In fact, he added, the
yield in parts of the Wa territory was above 13 kg per
hectare, approaching Afghanistan yield levels, which implies
the use of outside technical assistance, irrigation, and
fertilizer--inputs heretofore not a part of the Burma opium
industry.


4. (SBU) UNODC's Lemahieu appealed for donor pledges for the
next opium survey, noting that their was a need to support
salaries for counterpart units and a desire to extend the
survey into Kachin and Rahkine States. He observed that the
political situation in Burma (i.e. the aftermath of the May
30 attack on Aung San Suu Kyi) had caused some donors to back
off of previous pledge commitments.

Donor Issues
--------------


5. (SBU) At the 8/26 mini-Dublin meeting, Lemahieu described
the USG as a "traditional pillar of support" for UNODC, and
added that solid funding was also in the pipeline from
Germany (USD one million) and Italy (USD 100,000) for the
existing Wa project and from Australia for other Shan State
projects. Australia also reported that it now has both a
permanent police advisor and a technical assistant attached
to the Narcotics Task Force in Mandalay. The Japanese
delegation said that they would provide USD 500,000 for the
Kokang project, but noted a Tokyo decision to cease new
development funding in Burma as a result of the May 30
attack. Last year, Japan contributed USD 1.2 million under
the Human Security Fund to construct a canal in the Wa
region. COM reported to participants that President's
certification decision would be announced in mid-September
and that a new DEA representative had recently arrived in
Burma.

KOWI: Kokang/Wa Intervention
--------------


5. (SBU) According to UNODC, a joint assessment conducted
with Japanese and NGO participation in March and April
revealed the urgent need to counter the growth of cultivated
land in northern Wa territory and a worsening humanitarian
situation in Kokang areas. The result is a Kokang and Wa
Intervention (KOWI) proposal, a five year, USD 12.85 million
project comprised of 20-plus varied components. Japan, which
is apparently prepared to commit USD 500,000 for emergency
assistance to the Kokang, has identified four priority KOWI
components: food security, rural development, agricultural
development, and a development of a "comprehensive strategy."
The World Food Program (WFP),which also participated in the
joint assessment, pledged an immediate contribution of USD
200,000 for immediate food security needs, and several NGOs
will collaborate in food for work programs.


6. (C) Lemahieu noted that the GOB was not initially very
receptive to an international presence in the Kokang area,
but reluctantly agreed to two field missions and the WFP
immediate response project. With regard to advancing the
proposed KOWI intervention, Lemahieu said that UNODC wanted
to get a full commitment for funding from donors before
devoting substantial UNODC resources to planning and
undertaking initial steps.

Expanding the Mini-Dublin Group?
--------------


7. (SBU) At the August 26 mini-Dublin Group meeting, several
participants suggested that the next meeting should include
representatives from neighboring countries affected by trade
in narcotics and precursor drugs. UNODC reported that China
in particular has expressed a keen interest in discussing
drug cooperation efforts. This appears to be an outcome of
the August 2001 Beijing Declaration on regional law
enforcement cooperation between Burma, Thailand, Laos, and
China. As a result, UNODC proposed, and participants agreed,
to invite China, Thailand, and India to the next mini-Dublin
Group meeting.
Martinez