BURMA: THAI AMBASSADOR SKEPTICAL ABOUT CURRENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 001001 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV COMMERCE FOR ITA JEAN KELLY TREASURY FOR OASIA JEFF NEIL USPACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2013 TAGS: PREL BM TH SUBJECT: BURMA: THAI AMBASSADOR SKEPTICAL ABOUT CURRENT ROADMAP EFFORTS REF: A. BANGKOK 5119 ¶B. RANGOON 978 Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.5 (B,D) ¶1. (C) Summary: According to the Thai Ambassador to Burma, the Burmese regime has yet to offer any official or substantive reaction to the Thai "roadmap." Although the Thai Embassy here has not been included in RTG efforts to garner support for the roadmap, the Thai ambassador believes that the proposal will not succeed unless it becomes a multilateral effort. That said, he expects the SPDC will proceed on its own terms without regard to international proposals or pressure. End summary. ¶2. (C) Thai Ambassador Oum Maolanon, joined by political counselor Kallayana Vipattipumiprates, met on August 18 with COM and pol/econ chief to discuss recent Burma-related developments. Maolanon said that he had not yet seen the Thai "roadmap" for Burma, but he understood it to be a lengthy and comprehensive document. He noted that the proposal was the product of "only two or three senior Thai officials, including specific input from Foreign Minister Surakiart." Ambassador Maolanon observed that he had received no instructions from Bangkok to pursue the roadmap with the GOB and intimated he was perplexed at why the issue was being handled without Thai Embassy involvement. ¶3. (C) Maolanon reported that to date the SPDC has yet to respond to Thai overtures. Maolanon anticipated a reaction late on August 18 when Deputy Foreign Minister Khin Maung Win summoned him to MOFA headquarters. However, Maolanon and Kallayana later revealed to the COM that the meeting with the DFM was a "weird" encounter that lasted less than three minutes. Maolanon said the DFM handed over some papers of an administrative nature, but he had no official communication for the Thai Prime Minister or Foreign Minister and said nothing about the roadmap, other than to comment that "the leaders are engaged in internal discussions." ¶4. (C) Maolanon offered his view that the Burmese were unlikely to accept a bilateral proposal from Thailand as a roadmap for next steps. He said that any such proposal would have to be a larger multilateral effort to be palatable to the SPDC, but added that the Burmese generals would move ahead only on their own terms--including any decision related to the release of detained NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi. He agreed that ASEAN members would be unhappy to have the Burma crisis dominate October ASEAN meetings in Bali, and suggested that the SPDC may try to find some breathing room by transferring ASSK from detention at an undisclosed location to house arrest at her Rangoon compound. ¶5. (C) Bio note: Ambassador Maolanon will finish his three year tour in Burma in the coming months and return to Bangkok where he expects to be take up duties in October at the MFA as Director General of American and South Pacific Affairs. ¶6. (U) This cable has been coordinated with Embassy Bangkok. Martinez