LAGOS STATE GOVERNOR'S VIEWS ON IRAQ, NATIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000369

SIPDIS


CAIRO FOR POL - MAXSTADT


E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2013
TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR ETRD NI
SUBJECT: LAGOS STATE GOVERNOR'S VIEWS ON IRAQ, NATIONAL
ELECTIONS, AND AGOA

Classified By: ACG ROBYN HINSON-JONES FOR REASON 1.5 (D)



1. (C) Begin summary. Lagos State Governor Tinubu told
ConGen and DAS Bridgewater February 16 that he has asked the
Lagos State Assembly to issue a resolution declaring that no
new construction be permitted along "Embassy Row" on
Victoria Island. Tinubu assured ConGen that he will do all he
can to ensure protection of consular and diplomatic personnel
in Lagos. He shared our view that the dispute with Iraq
relates to weapons of mass destruction, not Islam, and he is
confident that most of his co-religionists share this view.
Tinubu pledged to work closely with the legislators who will
be elected or re-elected to the National Assembly to secure
passage of a customs bill, inaction on which has prevented
Nigeria from benefiting from AGOA. Tinubu disclosed
antipathy for President Obasanjo, but praised Vice President
Atiku Abubakar, whom he has known for many years. End
summary.



2. (C) During a luncheon for visiting DAS Pamela Bridgewater
February 16, Lagos State Governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu assured
the DAS and accompanying ConGen that his office will do all
it can to ensure protection of the Consulate in the event of
war with Iraq. Tinubu added that he has asked the Lagos State
Assembly to issue a resolution declaring that no new
construction be permitted along "Embassy Row" on Victoria
Island. With a view to the longer term, he will seek the
Assembly's approval to designate the Walter Carrington
Crescent a diplomatic zone. Such action would help ensure
the safety and security of diplomatic missions remaining in
Lagos.



3. (C) Tinubu expressed concern about Al Queda's nominal
designation of Nigeria among the countries that need to be
liberated from the grasp of American imperialism. Tinubu
asserted that the vast majority of his fellow Muslims are
neither sympathetic to Baghdad nor extremist Muslims.
Nigeria's moderate Muslims have great sympathy for the
United States, he said, and they know that the issue between
Iraq and the United Nations relates to weapons of mass
destruction, not Islam. The Governor said Al Queda's
message was meant for agitators who might jeopardize
Nigeria's unity and development.



4. (C) Regarding security in Nigeria, Tinubu said he expects
that even if war breaks out few people will be incited to
hold pro-Iraq or anti-US demonstrations in the southern
states, particularly Osun, Oyo and Lagos. He said the
politicians do not want international politics to detract
from their mobilization efforts for the spring elections.
Tinubu (himself a Muslim) has been meeting with Muslim
leaders who will not support anti-US activities. He promised
that any agitators would be "checkmated". The situation is
different in northern Nigeria, he said, where it is
politically expedient for moderate politicians to support
Sharia. He expects violent demonstrations specifically in
Kano, Kaduna and Jos.



5. (C) Tinubu senses that the United States has not
maintained the momentum in its positive engagement of Islam
that it had shown shortly after September 11, 2001. Lately,
US media outlets have not shown enough concern for Muslims in
the coverage of the impending conflict with Iraq. US
coverage of the issue has been too intellectual when it is
very emotional in the Muslim world. This fact has given
Iraq a propaganda edge over the US. Tinubu perceives that
the USG has not done a very good job explaining its cause to
the Muslim world either. Most Muslims, he said, believe
President Bush is "simply finishing his father's business."
Even Tinubu, a staunch US supporter, doubts the validity of
the US argument.



6. (C) Turning to the presidential contest, Tinubu disclosed
that he does not like President Obasanjo because he
contributed to the end of democracy in Nigeria during his
tenure as a military president and is now benefiting from
that history. That said, Tinubu admitted that he and his
party, the Alliance for Democracy, must support Obasanjo.
Southwest Nigeria is Yoruba land and the President is Yoruba.
Tinubu"s party had no choice since it has not fielded a
presidential candidate. Moreover, Obasanjo is the only
candidate who stands a chance of blocking his rival, General
Muhammadu Buhari, whose ethnocentrism would jeopardize
Nigeria"s national unity. Buhari and his ilk are agents of
destabilization who would be far worse than Obasanjo. Tinubu
and many other governors are therefore implementing a
strategy to re-elect Obasanjo, partly in an effort to prevent
Sharia from spreading. Tinubu predicted that the President
will follow his own course, if re-elected, since he will not
need as many friends the second time around.



7. (C) Tinubu praised Vice President Atiku Abubakar, whom he
has known for many years. Tinubu warned that former military
strongman Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida and National Security
Advisor Aliyu Mohamed will try to discredit Atiku. That
effort will fail, Tinubu predicted, because Atiku has the
support of the governors and the National Assembly.
Elaborating on his knowledge of the VP, Tinubu said he has
known and understood the VP even before his entry into
politics. Atiku is a detribalized politician who knows where
he is going and how to build bridges to get there. Tinubu
expects Atiku will play a larger role in the next
presidential administration, especially in economic affairs,
while Obasasanjo will concentrate on external relations.
Atiku may also assume responsibility for other domestic
portfolios in the next administration.



8. (C) Tinubu bemoaned the fact that Nigeria is not
benefiting from the textile provisions of the Africa Growth
and Opportunity Act, and claimed partial responsibility for
this situation. He said he had not pressed his fellow
governors to exert pressure on the national legislators for
enactment of a customs bill mandating country-of-origin
certification of inputs that might go into Nigerian textile
exports to the United States. Since Lagos State
manufacturers could benefit substantially from the AGOA
textile provisions, Tinubu plans to press for quick passage
of the customs bill. He believes the next legislature will
passed it soon after it convenes in late spring 2003.



9. (C) Bio comment. Tinubu is direct, articulate, and a
sharp analyst who understands accommodation. He acknowledges
the imperative of political compromise in the game for power,
even with political actors whom he might be inclined to
denigrate. Tinubu credits his going into politics to Atiku's
personal encouragement. Tinubu's admiration of Atiku
suggests that the Governor could be persuaded to play a
national role in an Atiku administration if the VP were
elected president four years hence.



10. (U) DAS Bridgewater did not clear this cable before her
departure from post.
HINSON-JONES