THE IMPENDING STRIKE: THE VIEW FROM LAGOS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 002060 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON ELAB PGOV SOCI NI SUBJECT: THE IMPENDING STRIKE: THE VIEW FROM LAGOS ¶1. (SBU) The looming showdown between the unions and the GON over fuel deregulation in Nigeria is about more than the fuel price. Anecdotal comments from people in Lagos tell us they are very angry about the way the price increase was implemented without any direct announcement, as if the government was hoping citizens wouldn't notice. As one officer of a civil society organization said, "it was done in the most annoying way possible." We're told it somehow seems symptomatic of the general disrespect on the part of President Obasanjo for the Nigerian people ("he treats us like we're harlots: use, then ignore," said one political contact). The issue also brings focus to strongly held feelings about the corruption and unfairness of Nigerian society. One worker said "poor people like us are pressed for every last Naira for fuel, while retired generals smuggle whole tanker loads of it." This being Obasanjo's last term, we have been told a number of times, a massive money grab is underway by the rich, and increasing the fuel price must have something to do with it. NUPENG and PENGASSEN -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Acting Econ Chief and visiting INR officer saw the presidents of both petroleum unions NUPENG and PENGASSEN midday Friday October 3. Neither union is as yet committed to a strike, but NUPENG President Peter Akpatason was more forward leaning ("...all signals indicate a strike"). PENGASSEN President Ogbeifun Louis Brown said its strike policy would be determined by its umbrella organization, the TUC, which will meet the week of October 6 (date TBD). NUPENG's strike position will most likely be locked in Saturday, October 4, when the NLC meets in Ibadan. Although they are members of different umbrella labor groups, the positions of the two unions had much in common. The interests at stake for both are much broader than the price increase itself. Both referred us to a two-part "ultimatum" they have given the GON: (1) one week to respond to their request for a dialogue on petroleum policy, and (2) an explanation of the government's position on "the issues of price adjustment, maintenance of the refineries, ports and other infrastructural development in the downstream sector as well as the planned privatization of NNPC..." ¶3. (SBU) We asked both unions what the threat conveyed in the ultimatum actually was; the text refers to "any action we might deem fit...," but neither could tell us what "action" that might be. Despite outraged references by both unions to the price hike, both were quite prepared to see substantially higher prices if that is what it would take to make domestic Nigerian refineries viable. The clearly evident bottom line was to secure the employment of their members in the refineries. If the public had to pay above market rates in consequence, so be it. It was noteworthy that neither union president knew what current world prices for petroleum products are, nor what prices in other west African countries are (in both cases, much higher than in Nigeria). The Yoruba View -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Acting Econ Chief and visiting INR officer also visited a senior officer in Afenifere, the principal Yoruba organization, for his views on the impending strike. He was about to leave for the midday meeting between Lagos' civil society organizations and the NLC, but told us that on Monday the country "would be ungovernable," and that violence would break out far more quickly than it did in July. The "area boys" (street thugs) would take immediate advantage of the situation to loot vehicles and make travel impossible. For him too, the point of the confrontation with the government was not really the price increase, but rather rampant corruption and Obasanjo's dismissive attitude toward the public. He worried, though, that a serious confrontation could be employed by the military to return to power, with some real public support. Danfos -------------- ¶5. (U) There is in addition a brand new irritant: the banning from Victoria and Ikoyi Islands (in daylight hours) of danfos, the dilapidated orange minivans on which the overwhelming majority of Lagos residents depend. In their place is an as yet limited fleet of city buses. From the narrow, technocratic perspective of the transportation planner this may make sense; lots of small, noisy vehicles replaced by large buses, fares paid to thousands of individual operators replaced by fares paid to a state operation. The timing, however, reflects an almost surreally bad sense of judgement; the ban was implemented on the same day as the fuel price increase, and now disgruntled crowds gather at the control points where the danfos are halted waiting for onward transportation that will cost nearly twice as much. Not nearly enough buses are available yet. HINSON-JONES