NEPAL: PM'S ADDRESS RILES PARTIES; TURNOUT IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000814

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS
LONDON FOR POL - GURNEY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2013
TAGS: PGOV NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: PM'S ADDRESS RILES PARTIES; TURNOUT IN
MASS ANTI-GOVERNMENT RALLY UNIMPRESSIVE

REF: KATHMANDU 0620

Classified By: AMB. MICHAEL E. MALINOWSKI. REASON: 1.5 (B,D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Leaders of most mainstream political parties reacted
negatively to a May 2 televised address by Prime Minister
Lokendra Bahadur Chand, focusing on his criticism of their
behavior, rather than on his offer to step down for the good
of the nation. So far, however, the parties' efforts to
ignite popular ire against the PM have failed, as evidenced
by the anemic turnout at a much-hyped multi-party rally in
Kathmandu on May 4. The next move, apparently, is up to King
Gyanendra. It remains unclear whether the King will invite
political leaders to form an all-party government to replace
Chand, or whether the low turnout at yesterday's rally will
embolden him to keep the parties at arm's length for now.
End summary.

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PARTIES BRISTLE AT PM'S ADDRESS
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2. (U) Leaders of most political parties reacted with
indignation and anger to a May 2 televised public address by
Prime Minister Lokendra Bahadur Chand, in which he criticized
the parties for "fomenting trouble at a time when the
government and Maoists are engaged in a peace process" and
blamed them for most of the troubles now plaguing the
country. (Note: The exception to the chorus of disapproval
was the National Democratic Party, of which the PM is a
member. End note.) In the address, which preceded by two
days a May 4 multi-partisan rally in Kathmandu to protest his
"illegal" interim government, the PM also offered to step
down "if anyone (else) will guarantee lasting peace, security
and welfare" in the country.


3. (SBU) Many observers had expected the PM's address to
strike a conciliatory chord, defusing the parties' much-hyped
protest planned for May 4 by offering them an opening to
participate in a new government. Instead, political leaders
cited the PM's criticism of the parties as further
justification for their "joint agitation campaign."

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TURNOUT TEPID;
MAOISTS, KOREAN JOB FAIR DRAW MORE
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4. (SBU) Despite its near-hysterical build-up (one leader
had predicted the protest would be like "nothing else" seen
in the history of Nepal),and despite good weekend weather,
the May 4 protest rally drew a comparatively tepid turnout,
estimated at about 14,000. Crowds at the rally, which was
sponsored by five Parliamentary parties, were dwarfed by the
April 3 turnout at a Maoist rally in Kathmandu (est. at
20,000); and just topped the numbers at a May 4 Maoist rally
in the remote southwestern district of Dang (est. at 10,000);
and applicants who turned up at a May 4 Korean job fair in
Kathmandu (est. at more than 10,000). Although organizers
had reportedly bussed in workers for the five parties (the
Nepali Congress, the Communist Party of Nepal - United
Marxist Leninist, People's Front Nepal, the Peasants and
Workers Party, and one faction of the Nepal Sadbhavana Party)
from districts across the country, the mood of much of the
crowd was muted, if not somewhat disengaged and apathetic,
according to one observer, with the leaders' fiery rhetoric
eliciting only scattered applause and little cheering.
Outside the rally venue, business continued as usual on a
Sunday afternoon in Kathmandu, with surprisingly little
disruption to traffic and, unlike the Maoists' April 3 rally
(Reftel),attracting comparatively few curiosity seekers.


5. (U) At the rally party leaders blasted King Gyanendra
for his "regressive move" of last October, when he appointed
an interim non-party government, instead of an all-party
government with full executive powers. The protest,
according to the organizers, was aimed at restoring the
sovereignty to the people that they claim was usurped by the
King's action, as well as at ensuring the success of ongoing
peace talks between the Government and Maoist insurgents.
Nepali Congress President G.P. Koirala and UML General
Secretary Madhav Nepal, who head the two largest political

SIPDIS
parties, issued apocalyptic public warnings to the King,
warning him their agitation campaign will force him to choose
between parliamentary democracy with a constitutional
monarchy, or a republic with no monarch at all.
Conspicuously absent from the reported public remarks of each
leader was any call to reschedule long-delayed national
elections, or any intimation of a party platform as
preparation for those elections. Apparently undaunted by the
disappointing turnout, rally organizers have announced a list
of follow-up events. The program includes 20 minutes of
silence on May 8, a nationwide black-flag rally on May 9,
burning effigies representing "regression" on May 10,
torchlight rallies on May 11, black-outs nationwide on May
12, and a campaign to stop government vehicles on the roads
from May 13-14.

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COMMENT
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6. (C) It is telling that the five democratic leaders,
self-described champions of democracy, focused their public
demands on being appointed to an interim Cabinet of
unspecified tenure--in much the same way that the Chand
government they decry as "illegal" was appointed. Kathmandu
political insiders, including party leaders themselves,
expected the PM's May 2 address to presage his resignation,
opening the door for the King to invite nominations for a new
all-party interim government. Nepali Congress President
Koirala and UML General Secretary Nepal indicated to the
Ambasador just hours before the PM's speech that well-placed
Palace sources had led them to believe that the King was now
ready to make that overture. (We had been given to
understand much the same.) Having already touted their May 4
rally as a massive protest against the Chand government, the
parties were unlikely to allow anything short of the PM's
actual resignation to derail it. That said, Chand's
accusatory tone managed to stoke, rather than help defuse,
partisan ire, making any future accommodation more difficult.
The disappointing turnout at the rally may embolden
hardliners within the Palace to try to dissuade the King from
accommodating the parties in a modified Cabinet. That would
be a mistake, especially given the not-so tacit assurances
Palace emissaries apparently conveyed to party leaders of a
different outcome. If the King backtracks now, he could
further damage his credibility with party leaders who feel,
rightly or wrongly, misled by him after they agreed to accept
Chand as PM last October. Moreover, with negotiations now
underway with the Maoists, the King must move sooner rather
than later to ensure the support of political parties for any
settlement reached between the Government and the insurgents.
We will continue to press both the Palace and the parties
for an accommodation that will unite legal, pro-democratic
forces against the Maoists.
MALINOWSKI