NEPAL: AMBASSADOR SENDS MAOISTS TOUGH WARNING ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001677 SIPDIS STATE FOR SA/INS AND DS/IP/SA LONDON FOR POL - GURNEY NSC FOR MILLARD E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2013 TAGS: PTER PREL PGOV ASEC CASC NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: AMBASSADOR SENDS MAOISTS TOUGH WARNING ON AMERICAN SAFETY; MAOIST VIOLENCE CONTINUES REF: A. KATHMANDU 1356 ¶B. KATHMANDU 1424 ¶C. KATHMANDU 1431 ¶D. STATE 219519 Classified By: AMB. MICHAEL E. MALINOWSKI. REASON: 1.5 (B,D). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The Ambassador sent a stern warning to the Maoists not to target American citizens or interests. The message was sent through Shailendra Upadhaya, a former facilitator during the most recent three rounds of dialogue between the Government of Nepal (GON) and the Maoists. An August 29 press release from the Maoists states they have resumed "mass resistance" because the King did not abdicate, the Royal Nepal Army (RNA) did not disband, and the GON imported weapons and "American armies to train for the genocide of the Nepalese people." On August 29 Maoists attempted to assassinate former State Minister for Home Affairs Devendra Raj Kandel. The incident follows the August 25 attempted assassination of former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, in whose Cabinet Kandel served. Two Maoists were shot in an armed engagement with GON security forces in the eastern district of Udayapur. End summary. -------------- MAOISTS WARNED NOT TO TARGET AMERICANS -------------- ¶2. (C) Shortly before the August 17 round of dialogue, the Ambassador asked Shailendra Upadhaya, a former Foreign Secretary and Ambassador to the U.S. who was serving as one SIPDIS of four facilitators to the talks, to convey a tough message on American security. Drawing on Department's language provided Ref D, the Ambassador asked Upadhaya to pass the message that the USG takes very seriously repeated Maoist threats against American interests in Nepal (Refs A-C). Any Maoist action against American citizens or interests will have severe consequences for the insurgents. The Maoists should not seek to make an enemy of the USG through their actions or their rhetoric. On August 27 the Ambassador met again with Upadhaya, who related that he had passed the message both orally and in writing (with one copy for the Maoist negotiators and one for Maoist supremo Prachanda). Maoist negotiator Baburam Bhattarai replied that the Maoists were concerned about US security assistance and believe that the USG plans to build a military base in Nepal from which to attack China. (Upadhaya told him such fears were ridiculous.) Bhattarai claimed (as he had in the April 25 meeting with emboffs) that the Maoists had not realized the two security guards they killed were Embassy employees, but were "certain" that they were spying for the GON. He then complained that he and Krishna Mahara were treated like "untouchables" when they came to the Embassy for the April 25 meeting. ¶3. (C) On August 29 the Ambassador spoke again with Upadhaya and asked him to reiterate the message to the Maoists, now that the ceasefire had broken, in the strongest possible terms. Upadhaya said he had no way to contact the Maoists on his own, but would pass the message on August 31 through fellow facilitator Padma Ratna Tuladhar, who has close links to the insurgents. (Note: DCM had passed the same message to Tuladhar on July 30. End note.) Upadhaya said he believes that the Maoists would be most foolish to attack US interests. -------------- FACILITATORS DISBANDED -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Upadhaya also related that the group of four facilitators has been disbanded. The Cabinet thanked them for their service, and committed to reconvene them in the event of another ceasefire. Upadhaya said that the disbanding was logical, but that he was open to serving as a facilitator again if events warranted. The Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue, a Swiss organization, had been funding the facilitation effort. -------------- -------------- MAOIST JUSTIFICATION FOR RESUMING VIOLENCE . . . -------------- -------------- ¶5. (U) On August 29 the Maoist website posted a statement in English that attemtpted to justify their decision to break the ceasefire. The GON's continued "anti-people activities in the period of the ceasefire" showed it was not committed to a peaceful settlement. Hence "mass resistance has resumed." According to the Maoists, "a peaceful solution . . . would obviously mean that the autocrat king would abandon the throne in a peaceful way . . . election of the constituent assembly, the Royal army . . . would be abolished and a democratic system established." (Note: During the negotiations, the Maoists listed neither abdication by the King nor abolition of the RNA as demands. End note.) Instead of immediately surrendering, "the old regime . . . indulged in petty formalities" during the talks and continued to "deter the Nepalese people by importing weapons, harboring American armies to train for genocide against the Nepalese people, signing several treaties on the guidance of America, and internally weaving a lot of conspiracies." (Comment: We view this latest diatribe as a disjointed Maoist attempt to justify their return to violence. End comment.) -------------- . . .AND VIOLENCE CONTINUES -------------- ¶6. (U) Maoists continued their campaign of assassination attempts against prominent politicians and members of the security forces with the August 29 shooting of former State Minister for Home Devendra Raj Kandel. Kandel, a former Nepali Congress MP who served in the Cabinet of former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, was shot three times in his car in front of his home in Kathmandu at 7:00 p.m. local time. Kandel survived the attempt and was taken to the hospital. ¶7. (SBU) The shooting marks the Maoists' fourth attempted assassination (one successful) in as many days. On August 25 Maoists shot at a convoy carrying former PM Deuba in Kailali, while on August 28 two RNA colonels prominent in the counter-insurgency effort were shot (one fatally) in front of their Kathmandu homes. It is believed that Deuba and Kandel were targeted for their counter-insurgency roles as well. Under Deuba's administration, the RNA was first deployed against the Maoists, a state of emergency was imposed, the Maoists were designated as terrorists with awards on their heads, and American security assistance was substantially increased. When the GON first announced bounties for top Maoist leaders, Kandel was widely quoted as saying that anyone who brought in a Maoist head would walk away with a bag of money. ¶8. (U) At about 4:00 a.m. on August 30 RNA troops in the eastern district of Udaypur engaged with Maoist insurgents. According to the local media, two Maoists were killed and three soldiers were injured. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) We have no doubt that Upadhaya, a diplomat with a long personal and professional history of warm relations with the U.S., will convey our message exactly as we delivered it. We have no indication that the Maoists intend to act on their vituperative rhetoric, but we continue to monitor the situation closely. If politicians disenchanted with the Palace needed any reminder of who their real enemy is, Kandel's shooting will certainly provide it. Whether the incident helps bring them closer to the GON--and prods them to call off their mass protest on September 4--remains to be seen. The series of assassination attempts in the capital has rattled the urban elite, who long felt insulated from the bloody conflict raging in the hinterlands. MALINOWSKI