NEPAL: GOVERNMENT-MAOIST NEGOTIATIONS GENERATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001565 SIPDIS STATE FOR SA/INS LONDON FOR POL - GURNEY E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/17/2013 TAGS: PGOV PTER PINS NP GON SUBJECT: NEPAL: GOVERNMENT-MAOIST NEGOTIATIONS GENERATE FRICTION, BUT CONTINUE REF: A. KATHMANDU 1559 ¶B. KATHMANDU 1552 Classified By: DCM ROBERT K. BOGGS. REASON: 1.5 (B,D). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The Government of Nepal (GON) and Maoist insurgents opened the third round of negotiations in the southwestern city of Nepalgunj on August 17. The GON team presented a package of proposed political reforms that include two of the three main Maoist demands. Speaking to the press after the first session on August 17, Maoist negotiator Baburam Bhattarai denounced the GON package, which proposed an all-party committee to amend the existing Constitution, rather than an assembly to draft a new one, as inadequate. The Maoist also blasted the GON bid to place disarming of the insurgents on the agenda for future negotiations. Despite Bhattarai's discouraging pronouncement, negotiators met for a second session on August 18 in the southwestern district of Dang. At this point, it is difficult to determine if Bhattarai's categorically negative reaction is mere theatrics or accurately reflects the Maoist position. If the latter, there seems little hope that the Maoists will remain engaged in negotiations that they perceive offer no immediate avenue to their true objective--power. The GON proposals will intensify pressure on the Maoists either to embark on serious discussions of political reform or to break off talks and resume violence. End summary. -------------- ROUND 3 OPENS IN NEPALGUNJ; TO BE CONTINUED IN DANG -------------- ¶2. (U) Government of Nepal (GON) and Maoist negotiators met for a long-delayed third round of talks in the southwestern city of Nepalgunj on August 17. Following the session, which lasted until mid-afternoon, GON lead negotiator Finance Minister Dr. Prakash Chandra Lohani, accompanied by his Maoist counterpart Dr. Baburam Bhattarai, briefed the press on their respective views on the discussion. Lohani announced that the GON side had presented the Maoists with a number of political reforms, which Bhattarai, in turn, lambasted as "ridiculous" and "disappointing" because they did not include the controversial demand for a constituent assembly. Bhattarai also said that the Maoists "totally disagreed" with the GON's refusal to shift control of the Royal Nepal Army from the Palace to "the people." This vituperation notwithstanding, the two team leaders announced that negotiations would continue for the second consecutive day in the southwestern district of Dang. The second session in Dang reportedly began mid-day on August 18. -------------- GON PROPOSES SIGNIFICANT REFORMS THROUGH CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT -------------- ¶3. (SBU) As promised (Ref B),on August 17 the GON provided the Embassy with a copy of the political reforms package presented to the Maoists in Nepalgunj. (A summary of the proposals has been faxed to SA/INS.) The document listed as its non-negotiable "bottom line" the constitutional monarchy, multi-party democracy, and the sovereignty of the people. It suggested a five-step process toward reform: a) Maoists and GON reach consensus on needed reforms through negotiation; b) other parties are brought into the process by an all-party round-table conference; c) an interim caretaker government, with Maoist participation, is formed to oversee national elections; d) elections are held; and e) the newly elected Parliament amends the Constitution in line with the "national consensus" developed through the four preceding steps. The document tacitly rejects the Maoist demand for a constituent assembly to draft a new Constitution by stating that previously submitted Maoist proposals "seem to be achievable through amending" the Constitution. The monarchy must be retained as "a symbol of Nepalese nationality and national unity" that brings together Nepalis of "various languages, religions, ethnic groups and cultures." ¶4. (SBU) The document also contains several significant proposals to address social inequities in the political system. For example, the package suggests changing the structure of the Upper House of Parliament, the National Assembly, to include "the representation of ethnic groups, indigenous peoples and Dalits in proportion to their population," while reserving 25 percent of seats in both nationally and locally elected bodies for women. Perhaps most surprising, the proposals suggest a quota system for ethnic minorities, members of the lower castes, and women "for a certain period of time" in government, the administrative services, and other professions like health and education. Other proposed changes include greater authority for local bodies, a program of land reform, stronger constitutional guarantees for freedom of religion and expression, a commitment to respect human rights "even in difficult circumstances," and introduction of a system of proportional representation. Besides political reforms, the document also proposes the inclusion of a few key items on the agenda for upcoming negotiations, e.g., disarming of Maoist cadres and reconstruction of infrastructure damaged during the insurgency. Finally, the document calls on both sides to commit to maintaining the ceasefire. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) The GON proposals seem to us a realistic starting point for dialogue regarding useful socio-economic reforms to benefit the very sectors of society the Maoists claim to champion. Sadly, Bhattarai's harsh rejection of the GON proposals confirms what we have suspected all along--that the Maoists are interested not in true reform but in the power they believe they can achieve by manipulating a narrowly based constituent assembly. The Maoists have never displayed much relish for real negotiations that involve compromise and concession, viewing the discussions instead as a vehicle to publicize their own demands and maintain, through repeated threats of a walk-out, the upper hand. The GON's unequivocal position on its red lines--the constitutional monarchy and multi-party democracy--has now left the Maoists little scope for such posturing. The next few days will heighten pressure on the rebels either to begin serious talks on an ambitious program of political reform or to return to terrorist violence. MALINOWSKI