NEPAL: GOVERNMENT NEGOTIATOR "CAUTIOUSLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001552 SIPDIS STATE FOR SA/INS AND DS/IP/SA STATE PLEASE ALSO PASS TO USAID/ANE LONDON FOR POL - GURNEY NSC FOR MILLARD E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2013 TAGS: PGOV PTER ASEC CASC NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: GOVERNMENT NEGOTIATOR "CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC" ABOUT UPCOMING TALKS WITH MAOISTS REF: A. KATHMANDU 1431 ¶B. KATHMANDU 1423 Classified By: DCM ROBERT K. BOGGS. REASON: 1.5 (B,D). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The Government of Nepal's (GON) peace negotiator and Information Minister Kamal Thapa told the Ambassador on August 14 that he is "cautiously optimistic" about the third round of talks with Maoist insurgents, scheduled to be held in the southwestern city of Nepalgunj on August 17. Instead of allowing the Maoists to determine the agenda and dominate the discussion as happened in earlier rounds of talks, the GON team plans to present a "comprehensive" package of political reform proposals during the meeting. Thapa said that in a private meeting with Maoist ideologue Baburam Bhattarai on August 12 he asked that the insurgents halt their threats against US-sponsored development programs. Thapa promised the Ambassador to raise the safety and security of all foreign aid workers in the talks on August ¶17. According to Thapa, Bhattarai credited Indian pressure in part for the Maoist agreement to meet for a third round. End summary. -------------- NEGOTIATIONS IN NEPALGUNJ -------------- ¶2. (U) After a hiatus of more than three months--interspersed with informal Government-Maoist meetings and repeated Maoist threats to return to violence--the Government of Nepal (GON) announced on August 12 that the long-delayed third round of talks will be held on August 17 in the southwestern city of Nepalgunj. (Note: Nepalgunj, located less than five km from the Indian border, is also home to the Royal Nepal Army's Western Division. End note.) This round will mark the negotiating debut of the new GON team appointed by Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa on June ¶12. Information Minister and GON negotiator Kamal Thapa told the press that he and Maoist negotiator Baburam Bhattarai had agreed on a date and venue for the third round after meeting together informally in Nepalgunj on August 12. -------------- MAOISTS "IN A HURRY" TO HUDDLE? -------------- ¶3. (C) In an August 14 conversation with the Ambassador, GON negotiator Thapa offered more detail on his three-hour, one-on-one meeting with Bhattarai that resulted in the agreement to hold the August 17 round. Thapa first commented that he was "not very optimistic" about the outcome of the talks, an assessment he upgraded later in the course of his remarks to "cautiously optimistic." Thapa reported that Bhattarai had struck him as "very much in a hurry" to hold the third round and not much interested in discussing details of the agenda. Bhattarai had indicated that the Maoists were facing significant pressure from a number of quarters, including civil society and the international community--particularly India--to agree to a third round. He added that he had also agreed to Bhattarai's request to hold another session of talks in Dang District after the August 17 round. (Note: Dang, a Maoist stronghold in southwestern Nepal, was the scene of the insurgents' first attack on the Royal Nepal Army, which ended the ceasefire in November 2001. End note.) Thapa said he had no idea why the Maoists requested Dang as a site, other than that they likely feel "more comfortable" in an area where they are particularly active in training, smuggling, etc. -------------- SECURITY OF FOREIGN AID WORKERS, PROJECTS TO BE ON AGENDA -------------- ¶4. (C) Thapa told the Ambassador that he had raised Maoist threats against U.S.-sponsored development programs with Bhattarai during the August 12 meeeting, asking if the increasingly shrill anti-US rhetoric represents a change in insurgent policy or strategy. Thapa reportedly urged the Maoists to halt the threatening statements, adding that the anti-US vitriol looked as if the Maoists were attempting to appease India. Bhattarai denied that there had been a shift in strategy, saying instead that the campaign reflected "ground realities." He rejected the suggestion that the insurgents might be using the anti-US rhetoric to appease India, pointing instead to Maoist concerns that the Indians were becoming "active" with Nepali political parties. (Note: This is more than a bit disingenuous on Bhattarai's part. The Indian Government's "active" engagement with Nepal's political parties, and especially with the Nepali Congress, is widely known and spans decades. End note.) ¶5. (C) The Ambassador asked Thapa to press the Maoists during the August 17 round to respect the safety and security of all foreign aid workers and projects. Thapa undertook to do so. -------------- THIS ROUND NOT TO FOLLOW PAST PATTERN -------------- ¶6. (C) The GON side will be prepared to address the Maoists' political agenda during the August 17 round, Thapa explained. That said, he emphasized that the current team will break with the passive style adopted by GON negotiators in the two previous rounds held under the former interim government. In those sessions, the GON side had permitted the Maoist proposals to form the whole framework of the talks without offering any counter-proposals or initiatives of its own, he said. Instead of allowing Maoist demands to dictate the agenda and dominate the discussions, Thapa reported that his two-man team plans to present the Maoists with "a comprehensive package of political reforms," including possible Constitutional amendments, for discussion. GON negotiators will make clear, however, that the government cannot and will not compromise on three core principles: the constitutional monarchy; multi-party democracy; and the sovereignty of the people. (Note: These three points are among the "unalterable" elements of the Constitution which the Maoists insist that a constituent assembly must address. End note.) ¶7. (C) The Ambassador asked if the GON negotiators had shared their draft political proposals with representatives of the mainstream democratic parties. Thapa replied that he had briefed the leaders of the Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist and the Nepal Sadbhavana Party on August 14, planned to speak with former Prime Minister and Nepali Congress (Democratic) Party leader Sher Bahadur Deuba later the same day, and a senior representative of the Nepali Congress Party on August 15. He promised to send the Embassy a final copy of the draft proposals. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Finally setting a date for this long-delayed round of talks is reason enough for "cautious optimism." The current team of GON negotiators clearly is approaching the upcoming round of talks with a better defined strategy and more proactive approach than its hapless predecessor. It is not at all clear, however, that the Maoists are prepared to pursue negotiations in which they will be called upon to make some basic political concessions. We therefore share Thapa's limited expectations for significant results. If nothing else, the session can provide a valuable opportunity to impress once again upon the Maoists our concerns about the security of American citizens and interests, including US-funded development projects and their staff. MALINOWSKI