UPDATE ON NEPAL'S MAOIST INSURGENCY, JULY 26-AUGUST

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 KATHMANDU 001458 SIPDIS STATE FOR SA/INS AND DS/IP/NEA STATE ALSO PLEASE PASS USAID/DCHA/OFDA STATE ALSO PLEASE PASS PEACE CORPS HQ USAID FOR ANE/AA GORDON WEST AND JIM BEVER MANILA FOR USAID/DCHA/OFDA LONDON FOR POL/GURNEY TREASURY FOR GENERAL COUNSEL/DAUFHAUSER AND DAS JZARATE TREASURY ALSO FOR OFAC/RNEWCOMB AND TASK FORCE ON TERRORIST FINANCING JUSTICE FOR OFFICE OF THE DEPUTY ATTORNEY GENERAL/DLAUFMAN NSC FOR MILLARD SECDEF FOR OSD/ISA LILIENFELD E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PINS PTER CASC PGOV NP SUBJECT: UPDATE ON NEPAL'S MAOIST INSURGENCY, JULY 26-AUGUST 1 REFERENCE: (A) KATHMANDU 1388 (B) KATHMANDU 1423 (C) KATHMANDU 1431 (D) KATHMANDU 1399 SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. On July 31 Maoists agreed to sit for a third round of formal peace talks with the Government of Nepal (GON). Kamal Thapa, Information Minister and GON negotiating team member, welcomed the decision but remained cautious, saying that a date for a third round of talks would be set through "mutual consultation." Kofi Annan, UN Secretary General, issued a statement on July 30 once again offering UN assistance to Nepal to achieve a peaceful outcome. According to July 25 press accounts, the Government of India has voiced concern over reports that Maoists from Nepal are forming ties with terrorist groups in India. Maoist leadership reportedly is under intense pressure from Maoist cadres and international allies such as the Revolutionary Internationalist Movement (RIM) to abandon dialogue and return to all-out war. Despite the continuing ceasefire and in direct violation of the code of conduct, Maoists attacked security forces, murdering three and injuring two. The insurgents continue to intensify extortion demands, severely beating those who fail to comply. Sher Bahadur Deuba, President of the Nepali Congress (Democratic) and former Prime Minister, accused the Maoists on July 25 of preparing for war. Maoists have threatened to punish severely anyone who defies their orders to stop working with US affiliated development and humanitarian organizations. End Summary. GON ACCEDES TO MAOIST DEMANDS; MAOISTS AGREE TO FURTHER PEACE TALKS -------------- ¶2. Timeline: ---On July 23, Maoists responded to the GON's July 13 invitation to sit for a third round of talks by setting new preconditions (Ref A). ---In its response on July 25, the GON addressed each of the Maoists' preconditions, declaring its continued commitment to the peace process, and inviting the Maoists to sit for talks by August 15. The GON assured the Maoist leadership that the GON's negotiating team has full legal authority to make decisions, so there is no need for the King's direct involvement; agreed to make public the whereabouts of over three hundred Maoist cadres as soon as possible; and said it is willing to release three central committee members. The GON refused to accept the controversial demand that the Royal Nepal Army (RNA) be restricted to within five kilometers of their barracks, explaining that "to restrict and limit the responsibility and domain of the army would not be in the broader interest of the country." ---On July 27 Baburam Bhattarai, Maoist ideologue and head of the Maoist negotiating team, issued an eight-page list of ultimata, demanding that the GON fulfill their prerequisites by July 31 or the Maoists would conclude that the GON has "unilaterally dissolved the ceasefire and dialogue." ---On July 29 the GON conceded several of the Maoists' demands, releasing three central committee members from prison, and releasing information on thirty-six missing Maoist cadres (Ref B). The GON's quick response put pressure on the Maoists not to walk away from the dialogue. Minister Lohani said on July 30 that "now it is up to the Maoists." ---On the afternoon of July 31 Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda),Maoist supreme leader, issued a statement that the Maoists would sit for a third round of talks (Ref C) and invited the political parties to be involved. GON CAUTIOUSLY WELCOMES MAOIST DECISION -------------- ¶3. The GON welcomed the decision of the Maoists to sit for a third round of talks, but warned, "we should not get too excited." Minister Thapa said the GON would proceed carefully, and would try "every possible means" to involve the political parties. The GON had requested talks by mid- August, but Thapa conceded that a date would be set through "mutual consultation." UN SECRETARY GENERAL OFFERS ASSISTANCE -------------- ¶4. On July 30 Kofi Annan, UN Secretary General, issued a statement expressing the UN's willingness to assist Nepal in finding a peaceful solution to the current conflict. Annan's statement praised the ceasefire and said the "UN remains at the disposal of Nepal to assist in the achievement of a negotiated peaceful solution." Prakash Chandra Lohani, Minister of Finance and member of the GON's negotiating team, declared on July 27 that there was no need for third-party mediators, reportedly saying, "this is our internal matter and we are striving to resolve it." ¶5. Human rights organizations, political parties and members of civil society have expressed the importance of the GON and Maoists continuing with the peace dialogue. The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) issued a statement on July 29 urging both sides to sit immediately for a third round of talks. The NHRC also faulted the ongoing exchange of letters for creating "misunderstandings" which jeopardized the future of the peace talks. ¶6. Facilitators for the peace talks issued a joint statement on July 29 appealing to both sides to sit for direct talks, and to continue efforts to ensure the success of the peace process. The facilitators complained that the "peace dialogue has not been disrupted but nothing significant has been initiated." The team reportedly also opined that rigid stands by both the GON and the Maoists had pushed the peace talks into a "critical stage," but were still confident the next round of talks would take place. ¶7. In separate statements on July 30, leaders from Nepal's major political parties reportedly have warned against a return to violence, saying the people of Nepal would not accept any action that pushed the country to further violence. Girija Prasad Koirala, President of the Nepali Congress (NC),reportedly called it "inappropriate" for the Maoists to issue an ultimatum during a time of uncertainty. Koirala also declared that the Maoists should hold talks with the political parties if they were not satisfied with the GON. Committee members from the Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) said the GON's willingness to fulfill some of the demands kept hope alive for another round of talks. The CPN-UML staged a rally in the capital on July 31 to pressure the GON and the Maoists to continue dialogue. The Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) also called on the Maoists to sit for another round. MAOISTS FORMING TIES IN INDIA -------------- ¶8. According to press reports on July 25, the Government of India voiced concern over the possibility that Maoists from Nepal are forming ties with terrorist groups in India. At a meeting attended by senior police and civilian officials from the Indian state of Bihar and the India-Nepal border districts of Bara and Parsa, Indian officials reportedly voiced concerns on alleged violence committed in India by Maoists who are aligning themselves with India's militant People's War Group (PWG) and Maoist Communist Center (MCC). The governments of Nepal and India have agreed in the past to share intelligence in order to combat terrorist activities in both countries. RIM EXERTS RADICAL INFLUENCE FROM INDIA -------------- ¶9. On July 30 Mohan Bikram Singh, a former mentor to Baburam Bhattarai and Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda),told a local publication that the Maoists "no longer see any purpose in continuing with dialogue." Singh also claimed that the Maoists are under intense pressure from Maoist cadres and international allies to abandon dialogue and return to violence. At the forefront of those exerting pressure is the Revolutionary Internationalist Movement (RIM),which is known for encouraging revolution over dialogue. (Note: RIM imposed pressure on the Shining Path, the Maoist organization in Peru, to abandon dialogue and return to war. End note). Senior Maoist leaders reportedly attended a recent RIM conference in the Indian State of Bihar (Ref D),where attendees praised the insurgency, claiming "Nepal is advancing to new heights and transforming the country into a bastion of world proletarian movement," and adopted the slogans of "Hands Off Nepal" and "Look to the Himalayas, a Better World in Birth." RIM reportedly has also aligned itself with the Maoists and the Maoist Communist Center (MCC) of India. MAOISTS CLASH WITH SECURITY FORCES -------------- ¶10. On July 30 five unarmed Royal Nepal Army (RNA) personnel in the eastern district of Sindhuli were attacked by a large group of armed Maoists. Responding security forces found three alive and two who had been brutally beaten and then shot to death. The soldiers reportedly had just returned from collecting their salaries, which the insurgents appropriated. The brutal murders were condemned by the Defense Ministry in a press release issued on July ¶31. On July 29 Maoists reportedly killed a head constable of police in Kaski District by slashing his throat. ¶11. Security forces and Maoists clashed in the western district of Surkhet on July 30. According to security forces, the insurgents opened fire and a clash ensued for almost two hours. No injuries were reported, but army personnel recovered nine socket bombs, ammunition and rifles left by the Maoists at the scene. DEUBA ACCUSES MAOISTS OF PREPARING FOR WAR -------------- ¶12. Sher Bahadur Deuba, President of the Nepali Congress (Democratic) and former Prime Minister, accused the Maoists on July 25 of preparing for war. According to press reports Deuba said that the Maoists would "stage a drama of dialogue" before waging war, and claimed that the insurgents were actively recruiting cadres, extorting money and importing ammunition from abroad. (Note: Deuba was Prime Minister when the Maoists walked out of peace talks after two rounds of dialogue in 2001 and subsequently launched simultaneous attacks on a police post and army barracks, killing fourteen soldiers and thirty-seven policemen. End Note). ¶13. The local press quoted an unnamed senior Royal Nepal Army (RNA) official on July 30 as saying that the Maoists have amassed arms and ammunition in the eastern region of the country as a possible prelude to war. MAOISTS WARN AGAINST WORKING WITH USG PROGRAMS -------------- - ¶14. Maoists continue to increase anti-American rhetoric. The insurgents have posted notices in the districts of Nuwakot, Rasuwa, and Sindhupalchowk ordering residents not to work with USG funded projects and warning of severe punishment to anyone who defies the order. The notice claims "under the cover of Save the Children US, the U.S. imperialists are conducting activities." Maoists have warned that if the notices are ignored, they would be "compelled to take severe action." ¶15. The All Nepal National Independent Students' Union- Revolutionary (ANNISU-R),the Maoist affiliated student organization, has reached a deal with the Private and Boarding School Organization of Nepal (PABSON) to discontinue employment of any foreign teachers, mostly Indian nationals and Bhutanese refugees. The militant student organization has announced "severe action" against any schools that fail to comply. MAOIST EXTORTION INTENSIFIES -------------- ¶16. Maoists continue to intensify extortion demands. In the far-western district of Humla the insurgents reportedly are targeting teachers and businessmen in the villages, and looting food from the farmers. Civilians who refuse to donate allegedly have been abducted and beaten. In Kailali District a group of Maoists severely beat two civilians who were unable to give them USD 700, an exorbitant amount in that region. COMMENT -------------- ¶17. The breakdown of the ceasefire has been avoided for now, but the prospects for further peace talks remain fragile. Prachanda's statement, though agreeing to another round of talks, is ominously critical of the dialogue so far, labeling the peace process as a "joke and a situation of confusion." The Maoist negotiating team reportedly is still in India, so it is unclear when a third round will occur. Virtually no one to who we talk expresses any confidence that a return to warfare can be avoided in the longer term without concerted foreign pressure. End Comment. MALINOWSKI