THE "ARMENIAN ISSUE" IN ISTANBUL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000644

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/29/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV AM TK
SUBJECT: THE "ARMENIAN ISSUE" IN ISTANBUL



1. (C) Summary: Most of those Turks we have spoken with in
Istanbul are largely ignorant of the tragic fate of at least
hundreds of thousands of Armenians who were killed in 1894-5
and especially in 1915-16 throughout Anatolia toward the end
of the Ottoman Empire. Turkish history books and readily
available academic literature fail to address the subject,
leaving Turks without an objective context to evaluate the
claims leveled by the Armenian Diaspora. As a result, such
charges and the consequent international demands for Turkey
to "recognize" the 1915 deaths as a "genocide" are merely
dismissed by Istanbul Turks as part of a hostile propaganda
campaign and a prelude to demands for "compensation." A
"Genocide Resolution" from the U.S. Congress would be greeted
with public outrage and would strengthen anti-Americanism.
End Summary.


How does the average Istanbul Turk see the Armenian issue?
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2. (U) We have spoken to a number of Istanbul Turks over the
last several weeks in an effort to get a better sense of the
range of opinion on this issue. The subject appears to have
been largely ignored in the Turkish history books and most
have only a very dim understanding of what happened to the
Armenians in 1915-16. To the extent that Turks here have a
historical understanding of the events, it is in the context
of the invasions and uprisings that threatened the Ottoman
Empire. For most, however, the issue has come to their
attention only as the result of what they see as a hostile
propaganda campaign by the Armenian Diaspora -- the same
Diaspora that earlier spawned a terrorist organization that
assassinated 34 Turkish diplomats in the 1970s and 1980s,
including several in the United States. Predictably, for a
population that is still mainly inward-looking and
reflexively nationalistic, each new development in this
international campaign provokes howls of protest here in
Istanbul.


Is the so-called Armenian "genocide" still taboo?
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3. (C) In the past, Turkish authorities actively restricted
what could be written or said on this and other subjects, but
in recent years such restrictions have eased. As an example,
Hrant Dink, the editor of Turkey's only Armenian-language
newspaper, Agos, told poloff that in the last few years three
separate books that dealt with the subject were banned after
publication. One of the publishers spent six months in
prison as a result. But when the cases were taken to court,
all of the charges were dismissed and the bans were lifted.
Dink speculated that Turkish authorities have realized that
these cases merely generate undesirable publicity while
simply ignoring these publications consigns them to the dusty
back shelves of bookstores and libraries.


How would Turks in Istanbul react to a "Genocide" resolution?
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4. (C) The almost universal response from average Turks here
would be outrage and would be reflected strongly in the mass
media. Beyond that, however, both Hrant Dink and Ilter
Turkmen (former Foreign Minister and Turkish Coordinator of
the Turkish-Armenian Reconciliation Commission) asked, "what
more could Turkey do?" A few even suggested that it might be
better to go ahead and get it out of the way, rather than
endure the annual suspenseful ritual of waiting to see
whether the Congress will pass it or not. Most, however,
worry that such a development would aggravate a continuing
anti-American, anti-Western current of public opinion and
would have negative long-term repercussions. Similarly, each
year Istanbul Turks nervously await the U.S. President's
April 24 statement, judging it largely by the simple measure
of whether or not it uses the "g-word."


What are the prospects for reconciliation with Armenia?
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5. (C) This is obviously an issue that rests in the hands of
the government in Ankara. Those we have spoken to here are
not hopeful that there will be much progress. Turkmen
expressed his frustration, saying that he had pushed Ankara,
unsuccessfully, to unilaterally open the border with Armenia.
Turkmen blamed those in the mid-to-senior ranks of the
Foreign Ministry, arguing that they have a narrow,
nationalistic mindset that makes it impossible for them to
see the way forward on this issue. Turkmen told poloff that
the Turkish-Armenian Reconciliation Commission had achieved
only very limited progress and would need to be changed
before it could continue its work. Dink, too, expressed
frustration with the government for not opening the border
("Even the border between northern and southern Cyprus has
been opened..."). Conceding that the Justice and Development
(AK) Party government has had a lot on its plate (i.e., EU
accession, Cyprus, Iraq) since coming to power last November,
Dink held out little hope that they would be able to do much
with Armenia.
QUINN