ISTANBUL MAYORALTY: UP FOR GRABS?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000636

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/28/2013
TAGS: PGOV TK
SUBJECT: ISTANBUL MAYORALTY: UP FOR GRABS?


Classified By: Consul General David Arnett for reasons 1.5 (b & d)



1. (C) Summary: The Istanbul Mayoralty, often characterized
as the second most desirable political prize in the country,
has become the focus of a back-room power struggle as players
jockey for ground in advance of the April 2004 local
elections. Mayor Ali Mufit Gurtuna, an independent since the
Virtue Party was banned in 2001, narrowly escaped a recent
Justice and Development (AK) Party-orchestrated no-confidence
vote in the normally acquiescent City Council. Following his
now-public fallout with AK, there is widespread speculation
that he may join media tycoon Cem Uzan's Youth Party (GP),
thereby setting the stage for a tightly contested election
next year. Other high-profile names are also being floated
as trial balloons, but most key political groups are waiting
cautiously before deciding which horse to bet on. End
Summary.



2. (U) For perhaps the first time ever, on March 28 the
Istanbul City Council refused to approve the Mayor's annual
report on the previous year's municipal activities. 118 of
the 203 City Council members, including the Justice and
Development (AK),Republican People's (CHP),and Felicity
(SP) Party groups, voted to reject the report; 42 Motherland
Party (ANAP) members voted in favor of approving the report.
A two-thirds majority (i.e., another 35 nay votes) would have
had the legal effect of a no-confidence vote. The Governor
would have been forced to appoint a temporary replacement and
a formal dismissal case would have been opened against Mayor
Ali Mufit Gurtuna. This development is particularly
surprising in light of the fact that the City Council is a
largely powerless, rubber-stamp body. While its formal
duties do include approving the overall city budget, its
activities have been generally limited to approval of the
annual activity report and other ceremonial functions. The
City Council includes municipal officials from Istanbul's
various districts, as well as part-time politicians who seek
the office primarily for influence to help advance their
private business careers.



3. (C) So what did Mayor Gurtuna do to antagonize the City
Council? Veteran AK Group President Huseyin Evliyaoglu
complained to poloff that the 2002 Municipal Report had not
been "serious": first, it failed to focus on last year's
activities, simply recycling language and photographs from
previous editions; second, it arbitrarily put forth 550 new
spending projects (that deal less with the city's needs and
more with the fact that their total number corresponds to the
550th anniversary of the Ottoman conquest of Istanbul). In
short, it was a mere "public relations document." Evliyaoglu
did not deny, however, that the report was typical of
previous reports. Pressed for more substantive criticisms,
Evliyaoglu openly suggested (while refraining from offering
details) that the real opposition to Gurtuna stemmed from
concerns about corruption and malfeasance. Evliyaoglu also
complained that the major media groups have all been "bought
off" by the Mayor, claiming that in one incident Gurtuna
capitulated to demands from Star newspaper representatives
for contracts and concessions when he was threatened with an
incriminating file with both evidence and allegations.



4. (C) ANAP Group President Recai Delibasioglu, whose party
"saved" Gurtuna by voting in favor of the report, told poloff
that the report was merely a pretext for an AK-orchestrated
effort to unseat, or at least discredit, the Mayor.
According to Delibasioglu, AK resents the fact that Gurtuna,
who came to power as Erdogan's deputy with the then-Virtue
Party, has maintained his distance from the party's more
successful successor. The rift between them has now grown to
the point where all bridges have been burnt. ANAP,
meanwhile, faces a disintegrating voter base and a bleak
political future. But with 6 Istanbul district mayors
dependent on good ties with the city mayor's office, ANAP
remains on good terms with Gurtuna. The fact that
Delibasioglu also indicated that he expects to play an
important role in the upcoming and potentially lucrative
privatization of the Istanbul Natural Gas Distribution
Corporation suggests that there may have been some quid pro
quo in return for ANAP's support.



5. (C) Evliyaoglu told poloff that relations between AKP and
Gurtuna have reached new lows and that he sees Gurtuna's
chances of being the AK candidate for mayor in next year's
local elections as "one in a hundred" (i.e., as close to zero
as you can get in Turkey's unpredictable politics).
Evliyaoglu was particularly incensed that he had heard that
Gurtuna hoped to use his recent trip to Washington for the
American-Turkish Council Meeting to convince U.S. officials
that he remains a likely AKP candidate and to secure their
support in convincing PM Erdogan to offer him the nomination.
Evliyaoglu declined to join the delegation for the trip
precisely because he was worried that his presence might
convey the impression that Gurtuna was maintaining good ties
with AKP. On the other hand, Muge Altas, Advisor to the
Mayor, argued to poloff that the rift between Gurtuna and AK
is not nearly as wide as others believe. She also
downplayed, but did not deny, the rumors that Gurtuna might
be considering the Youth Party.



6. (C) Other high-profile names have also been floated as
possible contenders for the Istanbul Mayoralty in next year's
elections. Delibasioglu claimed that former Interior Minister
and ANAP parliamentarian Sadettin Tantan might be convinced
to throw his hat in the ring. Tantan, formerly the Mayor of
Istanbul's Fatih district, is well-known and well-liked in
Istanbul. In a chance meeting with poloff, however, Tantan
refused to confirm rumors about his potential candidacy. CHP
parliamentarian and former Economy Minister Kemal Dervis is
another name that we have heard mentioned as a possible
contender, although most dismiss this as unlikely.

7. (C) Comment: While the opposition of the toothless City
Council is clearly not one of Gurtuna's major worries, it is
an indication of the Mayor's political isolation. The roots
of Gurtuna's problems with the City Council largely stem from
his refusal to politically align himself with one of the
major parties. It is clear that relations between Gurtuna
and the Istanbul-based AK Party have been seriously strained,
but AK and Gurtuna continue to represent each other's best
chance to win in the upcoming local elections. If AK's
popularity deteriorates significantly before next year's
elections, we do not rule out the possibility of a
last-minute reconciliation, or at least "alliance of
convenience," between Gurtuna and AK Party Chairman Tayyip
Erdogan. Contenders from other parties, even names like
Tantan and Dervis, would be long-shots unless they emerge as
consensus candidates after a fundamental realignment of the
center-right or center-left parties.
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